ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

What's for sure are two things: the displaced TUTT that would have otherwise shredded any ECAR systems at this time of the season as well as the decently low latitude (almost near the northern coastline of S. America!) that 97L is traveling in are things that I never expected this year to have. Heck, when was the last time this kind of at least similar pattern was present at around the same timeframe? 2005?

The pattern does seem similar. I do not like how trends are going right now with this season.

Also it's worth mentioning the Gulf Loop Current. At least based on recent UOHC profiles, it seems to very apparent compared to its surroundings this year. This could be rocket fuel for any storms that go over it under otherwise the right conditions if I am correct, like we saw this with storms like Opal, Katrina, Ivan, and Rita.

2 out of those 4 were in 2005. These observations are not good if we are looking for a quieter season.

[sma10]

With its appearance on satellite you'd think that this is from September or at least from another basin. It's rare to see something that looks this good in the Atlantic in June.

Further, even the proposed track suggested by GFS/HWRF is more indicative of a late August/September track. If memory serves, in the very rare instance of past MDR June development, the track almost always goes far to the South towards Central America.

[cycloneye]

97L INVEST 210630 1800 9.4N 42.8W ATL 30 1008

[Shell Mound]

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

Is Wxman57 ready to bring Bones out yet?

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

No

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

It is not unusual for convection to wane this time of day. If it still looks bad at dawn, then there could be some big problems.

[mcheer23]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

No

I double that no.

[Shell Mound]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

Is Wxman57 ready to bring Bones out yet?

No, but the current trends and surrounding environment suggest a low-end to moderate TS in the islands is more likely than a strengthening hurricane.

Of course, everyone in the islands and elsewhere should still be prepared for this system and any eventualities that may or may not arise.

[cycloneye]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

No, no, no, please.

[Steve]

lmao

SM does have a point about future intensity. With some SWly shear and then strong push from the east, there's hostility enough to argue for something on the weaker side in the islands.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

Is Wxman57 ready to bring Bones out yet?

No, but the current trends and surrounding environment suggest a low-end to moderate TS in the islands is more likely than a strengthening hurricane.

Of course, everyone in the islands and elsewhere should still be prepared for this system and any eventualities that may or may not arise.

Are you talking about observational trends because model trends have been moving towards a stronger system?

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

Dude the convection has shifted over the llc now. The llc is not exposed and if it was it would be typical of a budding tropical system. The stratocumulus are helping convergence occur which in turn helps deep convection initiate. Also where you pointed out dry air it is by no means intruding. Give Elsa some love Hans.

[Shell Mound]

Is Wxman57 ready to bring Bones out yet?

No, but the current trends and surrounding environment suggest a low-end to moderate TS in the islands is more likely than a strengthening hurricane.

Of course, everyone in the islands and elsewhere should still be prepared for this system and any eventualities that may or may not arise.

Are you talking about observational trends because model trends have been moving towards a stronger system?

I am referring to observational trends, particularly satellite-based. I disagree with the high-end solutions in the islands but think a moderate TS is likely there.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

Is Wxman57 ready to bring Bones out yet?

He would like to, his vacation days are in real jeopardy

[Kazmit]

Regardless of whether it gets named today or tomorrow, it will be the earliest 5th storm on record by at least five days, which is very impressive.

[Aric Dunn]

Timeline..

1. Currently in post inital development pulse down phase.
2. Initial convective burst is coming shortly pushing vorticity up into the stacked midlevels.
3. First set of microwaves shows a proto eye sometime over night and morning.
4. second pulse down and we see first hints of a mid level eye sometime tomorrow afternoon/ evening,..
5. ........ big question.. do we see some RI or just slow and steady..

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wWg2CS/97L-1.png

I’m really rooting for you to be correct but all else points the other way. We’re watching a good looking system form right now with pretty strong model support and a ton of moisture.

[eastcoastFL]

[Steve H.]

This system looks pretty darn healthy to me, especially given the time of year. I for one am paying close attention to this.