#58 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 29, 2021 5:18 pm
Seems like there’s a significant difference between the GFS and HWRF/HMON forecasts for the steering of 97L. While both have this develop and enter the Caribbean at a low latitude, and have a large Bermuda high, they differ in what happens to it.
The GFS has a front emerging off of the US East Coast on Saturday, which seems to weaken the ridge and allows 97L/Elsa to climb north before striking Hispaniola. In the HWRF/HMON runs, the system remains further south, either heading into Cuba or perhaps missing the Greater Antilles entirely. This leads me to believe that they might not be anticipating as much weakening of the Bermuda High as the GFS is. Someone please correct me if I’m looking at this wrong.
How low 97L remains in the Caribbean is key to how strong it’ll get, and what future it’ll have beyond the Lesser Antilles. If it takes a track like the 12z and 18z GFS runs, it’ll crash into Hispaniola and become what all the models anticipated would be the fate of Dorian. With this path, it would have maybe 36 hours at most between entering the Caribbean and making landfall. If 97L manages to stay further south, it could have 2-3 days, perhaps longer, before running into one of the islands. Maybe it misses them and makes it into the Gulf like the 00z and 06z GFS runs showed, but that would be beyond 5 days out. Which track 97L takes will probably be influenced by where the LLC finally consolidates, either in the northern part of the disturbance or the southern part.
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