ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/858864079082750002/LATEST.png
No westerly wind whatsoever.
Certainly looks like it's trying given the shift in the NW region of the convection, but one of those instances where being closer to the ITCZ would've been beneficial as there's not enough convergence where it's at.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/858864079082750002/LATEST.png
No westerly wind whatsoever.
it is small, moving at a decent clip and rain rates were high..
we saw this last year ( and many others) with marcos. Where it was not upgraded until there were intermittent eye features. lol
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139707
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
AL, 95, 2021062800, , BEST, 0, 113N, 364W, 25, 1009, DB
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 562
- Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYQ2PaV7Fco
Nighttime video update on the tropics. I'm somewhat impressed with 95L tonight,
Nighttime video update on the tropics. I'm somewhat impressed with 95L tonight,
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 7314
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
3 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9306/XsIWRs.gif
Convection still pulsing during the nighttime... looking forward to what we find tomorrow morning
1 likes
- Stormybajan
- Category 1
- Posts: 428
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
- Location: Windward Islands
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Best its ever looked happening right now...
3 likes
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3443
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
95L has been maintaing convection for a bit, so I don't think what we saw earlier today was an anomaly. I am certainly watching this and the wave behind it, it's been quite a spicy season for hurricane trackers like me so far already...
8 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
...
2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
...
2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Up to 20/40 at 8am.
2 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
...
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
...
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
https://twitter.com/chad_trosper/status/1409468725300969478
06z hints at opening back up to a wave in the Caribbean.
06z hints at opening back up to a wave in the Caribbean.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139707
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
AL, 95, 2021062812, , BEST, 0, 117N, 395W, 25, 1009, DB
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Stormybajan
- Category 1
- Posts: 428
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
- Location: Windward Islands
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:https://twitter.com/chad_trosper/status/1409468725300969478?s=21
06z hints at opening back up to a wave in the Caribbean.
I think thats the 00z since 06z and 18z runs on weathernerds usually has the white background
0 likes
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Stormybajan wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:https://twitter.com/chad_trosper/status/1409468725300969478?s=21
06z hints at opening back up to a wave in the Caribbean.
I think thats the 00z since 06z and 18z runs on weathernerds usually has the white background
2 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looking very anemic today. Would not surprise me if this just poofs. Can’t change the calendar date
3 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Looking very anemic today. Would not surprise me if this just poofs. Can’t change the calendar date
I don't think anyone is looking for a hurricane develop here. Who would this early? My guess would be nobody. But until it's not trackable, we track!
5 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1448
- Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
- Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
As I said before, 45 W is the most important line of longitude for this system. Based on how this has been moving, I think it will reach that longitude by 8 PM. When it does, I think formation chances will rise significantly.
3 likes
- Stormybajan
- Category 1
- Posts: 428
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
- Location: Windward Islands
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
AlphaToOmega wrote:As I said before, 45 W is the most important line of longitude for this system. Based on how this has been moving, I think it will reach that longitude by 8 PM. When it does, I think formation chances will rise significantly.
That is entirely true, 95L still has a bit of time to play with however given its resistance to conditions over the last couple of days dry air has hit it harder than I expected today. In all honesty this should be expected from a June wave even if it doesnt develop in the end
3 likes
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests