Surface trough offshore the SE U.S. (Is Invest 96L)

[boca]

Like Dean4Storms pointed out on another thread this ULL has my attention because it’s looking rather well this morning and heading west into warmer water and these systems can work it’s way down to the surface. I’m keeping an eye on this one it could be interesting.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Was going to make a thread for this area. Looking a little suspicious this morning. Doesn't seem to have any model support however.

[tailgater]

Yes I agree it needs to be watched, convection continued firing near the center of the Ull makes me think it has a decent chance to convert

[tailgater]

I’m a little surprised the national hurricane center didn’t even put a lemon on it. I guess if they don’t have any model support it won’t happen.
925 and 850 mill bar indicate some lower level rotation is increasing

[AtlanticWind]

Just saw this , does seem pretty impressive.
But I know ULL working its way to the surface and
becoming a TC is kinda rare.

[Dean4Storms]

Crazy thing is the ULL has a Ridge aloft over it, note the UL clouds fanning out in clockwise fashion. If the convection could consolidate and deepen this could get a reflection of a surface low developing. Still would just keep an eye on it.

[Aric Dunn]

Although convection is not terrribly organized... there def appears to be a solid broad surface reflection..

some outflow from the convection is also present.. this also needs to be very much watched as the ridging will likely bring it to the coast somewhere along the SE.

[Aric Dunn]

Probably going to get a lemon out of this at 2..

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=8832&y=5193&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

A surface trough located a couple hundred miles south of Bermuda is
producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although surface pressures currently high across the area, some
additional slow development could occur while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah not surprised. it is actually looking quite good considering it is sitting in the most perfect location it possibly could and moving at the same speed as the ULL..

that ULL should continue to weaken giving way to better convective support.

[galaxy401]

I saw this earlier in the morning and thought that it looked rather impressive. Not surprised it got the X.

[AnnularCane]

Probably going to get a lemon out of this at 2..

I doubted you. I apologize.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks pretty good to me and there does appear to be a surface reflection. I wouldn't be shocked if it does develop and impact the eastern united states.

[Aric Dunn]

Got a feeling if we get a good ASCAT pass this evening.. the 2am TWO is going to go up quite a bit..

[aspen]

How much time does this have before making landfall?

[AJC3]

I went ahead and "best tracked" the thread/post titles, since the Atlantic TWD has been mentioning the surface trough associated with the ULL, which has been analyzed for a couple days now.

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 26 2021

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extending from 30N63W to 25N65W is coupling with
an upper-level low at 32N67W to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of Bermuda from 24N to 31N between 59W and
69W. Although surface pressures are currently high across the
area, some additional slow development could occur while the
system moves westward at about 10 kt over the next few days.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
found W of the trough axis north of 28N between 65W and 70W.

[tailgater]

I’m a little surprised the national hurricane center didn’t even put a lemon on it. I guess if they don’t have any model support it won’t happen.
925 and 850 mill bar indicate some lower level rotation is increasing

Yes the 925 and 850 mb vorticity continue to increase, the ULL is showing a donut in it’s center pretty close to the low level vorticity on the CIMSS site.
My guess it’s moving a good bit quicker than 10knots, probably why is having a little trouble closing off. GCANE if you are around I’d love to hear your take on this one along with 57 and Aric of course.

[weeniepatrol]

[Aric Dunn]

That big tower is a dead givaway... the curved shape to the towers as well.

and the low level inflow all point to a well defined LLC..

this may spin up rather quickly...

and depending on the placement with the ULL (which is dying) the shear should be at least partially favorable to the coast.