One thing that I find interesting watching these movie loops of satellite imagery overlaid with lightning, is that lightning within deep convection over the ocean is far less frequent than over land. There is probably a fundamental reason for this but I don't know what it is, is it something to do with the strength of the updrafts in the convection?
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 700 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 102.0W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 102.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this forward motion is expected to continue with a turn to the northwest and north-northwest over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next 36 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four-E will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$ Forecaster Berg
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Wow this one's got some solid convection already. If it gets more organized I could see this making a run for hurricane status although it's not going to have much time to get there.
0 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 4/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...PATEL
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 332 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042021 FOUR 06/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.20 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042021 FOUR 06/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
waking up to see a ts or more coming into our neck of the woods this early in season is a lil nerve rattling. mexicoast needs rain, but not the beating... hopefully this issue is gentle on the residents and farms, and produces rain not mayhem.
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM DOLORES... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 102.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Recent SSMIS microwave imagery indicates that convective banding continues to become established to the north and west of the cyclone's center, while the overall area of deep convection is gradually expanding. Dvorak satellite classifications have increased to T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/35 kt from SAB, and the depression is therefore being upgraded to a tropical storm with maximum winds of 35 kt.
Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest (285/9 kt), to the south of a weak mid-level ridge which extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to central Mexico. Since Dolores is now reaching the western extent of this ridge, the storm is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward around the ridge later today and into Saturday, reaching the coast of Colima or Jalisco by Saturday evening. The track models agree on this general scenario, although there is some spread on exactly where and if the center makes landfall. The GFS and HWRF models show a sharper turn toward the north, with the center moving inland near or south of the Manzanillo area, while the ECMWF and UKMET models depict a wider sweeping turn, keeping the center near or just off the coast in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. The updated NHC track forecast is between these two scenarios, near the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, depicting a potential landfall along the Colima or Jalisco coasts Saturday evening. The new NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous forecast, although it does show Dolores reaching the coast a little sooner than previously expected.
Additional strengthening is anticipated up until Dolores's potential landfall due to very warm sea surface temperatures (29 to 30 degrees Celsius), a moist environment, and significant upper-level divergence. The intensity models agree on this strengthening, although since several of the track models already have Dolores inland by 36 hours (which the NHC official forecast does not), they're showing the cyclone's intensity too low at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid through 24 hours, but then it is above all of the guidance at 36 hours in order to show at least some additional strengthening before Dolores reaches the coast. Based on this forecast, Dolores is expected to be near or just below hurricane strength when it reaches the coast. This new forecast necessitates the issuance of a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico. Depending on the amount of land interaction after 36 hours, Dolores is expected to weaken fast as it continues moving northward along the west-central coast of Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today and on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are now in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
I am going to say it from now. Dolores will be the first hurricane in EPAC of 2021.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
cycloneye wrote:I am going to say it from now. Dolores will be the first hurricane in EPAC of 2021.
Yeah I think it's got a good chance. Not a good situation for Mexico at all
2 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Very good decisión to task Recon for Saturday with plane departing at 9 AM EDT or 13z.
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 A. 19/1730Z B. AFXXX 0104E DOLORES C. 19/1300Z D. 18.0N 104.7W E. 19/17000Z TO 19/1915Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
12z GFS a little west compared to 6z and now brings this into Colima. Will see if other models cave.
For comparison here is the ECMWF 0z run which brings this into Jalisco and is why the NHC is so far west:
Time over water is pretty important here. The overall synoptic setup is favorable enough for steady development, with moderate wind shear due to a displaced anti-cyclone being offset by 29-30C waters and a very moist mid level environment. A standard climotological rate would support a T3.5/55 knot tropical storm in 24 hours and T4.0/65 knot hurricane in 36 hours if still offshore but the GFS/HWRF moves this onshore at or just before 18z on Saturday. If an inner core can be established, a faster rate of intensification can not be ruled out. Assuming the ECMWF is closer to reality here, I like Dolores's chances of becoming a hurricane. At minimum, I think this will be the strongest storm of the season.