ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Low that NHC is following is more north at 20n.

AL, 92, 2021061700, , BEST, 0, 200N, 936W, 20, 1008, LO

[3090]

It appears the low center forming due north of YUC. Bands trying to fill in on E side

That area will not be the real center associated with whatever forms as the soon to be tropical depression. The main focus is still deep down in the BOC.

[JW-_-]

Thinking it may form tomorrow on the end of the trough in the SW Gulf. Will it get outflow benefits along the trough line as well. Time will tell in real-time.

[Steve]

One forecast model develops a meso type low off the YP, and moving into SELA ahead of the tropical depression that is forecast to form in the BOC/SWGOM and then moving into SWLA/SCLA. Interesting setup coming.

Hey 3090. Hope you are good man.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Dean4Storms]

That Vort that was on the NW tip of the Yucatán yesterday morning and lifting northward on the eastern side of the gyre is now blowing up convection up near 24N north of the Peninsula. I believe this is the 850mb vort that the GFS goes on to develop south of the mid Gulf Coast by then rotating around to the north side of the gyre.

[Subtrop]

A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
is producing widespread but disorganized cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to move northward, and a
tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the
west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rains
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on
Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological
service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

I would imagine we'll see PTC advisories pretty soon, since it's up to 90/90 probs and a threat to land.

[TallyTracker]

I would imagine we'll see PTC advisories pretty soon, since it's up to 90/90 probs and a threat to land.

I was thinking the same thing. I wonder if the reason they haven’t yet is the lack of a well defined center.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is going to be a very weak and short-lived storm. Going with a 40 knot peak at best.
'

[tailgater]

Pretty strong vorticity developing near 23N 93 W right under the mid- level low

[Frank P]

Pretty strong vorticity developing near 23N 93 W right under the mid- level low

Watching that interesting little vort on the vis sat long loop image it appears to be basically rotating around the large gyre and now looks to be heading southwest… this gyre has produced several vortices rotating around the system and none yet have become dominate… I think once the HH get there around noonish we finally get the office center… IMO.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021061712, , BEST, 0, 210N, 930W, 25, 1008, LO

[wxman57]

I would imagine we'll see PTC advisories pretty soon, since it's up to 90/90 probs and a threat to land.

I was thinking the same thing. I wonder if the reason they haven’t yet is the lack of a well defined center.

Heck, landfall is within 48 hrs. TS wind touching coast tomorrow afternoon/evening. Having a well-defined LLC is not a criterion. High development chances and a need for a TS watch are the criteria. They should have started the PTC advisories last evening, according to their criteria. I have landfall around 3am Saturday mid LA coast. Center may be forming near 23.6N/91.8W. Around there, somewhere. Not critical.

[WacoWx]

First time flying with kids ( 4 yo and 5) in to Mobile at 3:30p on Saturday.

Should I be concerned?

[eastcoastFL]

[tailgater]

Pretty strong vorticity developing near 23N 93 W right under the mid- level low

Watching that interesting little vort on the vis sat long loop image it appears to be basically rotating around the large gyre and now looks to be heading southwest… this gyre has produced several vortices rotating around the system and none yet have become dominate… I think once the HH get there around noonish we finally get the office center… IMO.

Yes Frank I agree it and others are rotating around the gyre. This one interests me a bit more because I haven’t seen it depicted on any models yet and the shear is less because it’s under the mid level low. It may go puff in a couple hours also.
HH will be out there a while today I think trying to get a good fix.

[canetracker]

Pretty strong vorticity developing near 23N 93 W right under the mid- level low

There is 850 mb Vorticity in that general area too.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[chaser1]

Pretty strong vorticity developing near 23N 93 W right under the mid- level low

Was just about to post the very same thing. I believe this LLC vort will in fact be the point of genesis, especially in light of the much less maligned upper level flow developing this morning. Rather then a harsh west to NW flow aloft over this region, the flow is trying to become anticyclonic thanks largely in part to the convection induced upper high over Yucatan continuing to expand and nudge westward. Upper flow over this vort center is now from the SSE as the upper ridge continues to expand over it. I fully expect NHC to post PTC advisories for Louisiana by noon today. If in fact a weak but tight center develops from this point, I'm now finding it more reasonable to see a TD develop by tomm. afternoon as the brisk southerly upper level flow becomes a bit mitigated by the system's northward motion tomorrow. While leaning against genesis over the past couple days, I now think that a min. T.S. to impact the Louisiana coast could become a reasonable solution after all. Of course, all this becomes mute if this latest point of vorticity simply becomes sheared and spins out such as prior rotating points of vorticity.