Watching Bay of Campeche & SW Gulf Next Week (Is Invest 92L)

[johngaltfla]

The GFS is still the most consistent model:

Generating
Fake
Storms

[OuterBanker]

I know it might be a bit premature but I may as well get the ball rolling.

IT'S DEAD JIM

[AtlanticWind]

I know it might be a bit premature but I may as well get the ball rolling.

IT'S DEAD JIM

Was it ever alive ?

[EquusStorm]

Tried one last time to spin up as it came ashore looks like, but too little too late. Nicaragua can't catch much of a break though

[rolltide]

It's not expected to do anything until it moves northward into the southern GOM mid to late next week. It may not do anything then either.

[Ubuntwo]

It's not expected to do anything until it moves northward into the southern GOM mid to late next week. It may not do anything then either.

That's a different system, currently in the East Pacific being monitored by the NHC for formation there (first).

[rolltide]

It's not expected to do anything until it moves northward into the southern GOM mid to late next week. It may not do anything then either.

That's a different system, currently in the East Pacific being monitored by the NHC for formation there (first).

That is not what I have been seeing or hearing. Can you provide a source? Thanks.

[Ubuntwo]

It's not expected to do anything until it moves northward into the southern GOM mid to late next week. It may not do anything then either.

That's a different system, currently in the East Pacific being monitored by the NHC for formation there (first).

That is not what I have been seeing or hearing. Can you provide a source? Thanks.

The latest euro run has the NHC-tracked vorticity in the Pacific develop before crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. It then develops Gulf side and interacts with this energy/a tropical wave to form a broad tropical low (the gfs is very similar). All this development potential is tied to a 'favorable circulation environment' and soon-to-be highly enhanced convection over Central America (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/). Considering that, individual systems are not as important to follow at this point as the general environment, and the specific impulse for Gulf formation has already shifted a few times among the big globals. So both of our claims are kinda disingenuous

[Jr0d]

Starting to look like an area of interest on tonite's satellite images.

I am surprised the NHC is not mentioning it in the 5 day out look based on the satellite presentation.

[JW-_-]

Cross over into the GOM GFS sees a cane. Likely I posted in the wrong thread. Just a heads up.

[tailgater]

Can we change the heading or do we want started a new thread for the lemoned area

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over
the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequent
slow development of this system is possible as it drifts
northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Gums]

Salute!

Yep, the pesky Bay of Campeche may strike. Normally I don't look much there until later in the season, as most storms I have witnessed until September or so seem to come from north Caribb or SE Gulf from a wave. Oh well, we shall see.

Gums sends...

[chaser1]

Good point Tailgator, especially in light of NHC appropriately shifting their focus to the BOC for potential development late next week. I think that under normal circumstances creating a new thread minus an actual area of disturbed weather there at the moment might be pre-mature, however the SW Caribbean impulse is also moving westward into that region.

[chaser1]

I just tried but I'm not sure if anyone other then Cycloneye can actually change the Thread Header title since he started the thread

[wxman57]

I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.

[lrak]

Love to read the words "sheared and weak." Keeping fingers crossed.

[USTropics]

Here are some new ECMWF ensemble products, TC genesis for the next 5 days:


ECMWF TS strike probability for next 9 days:


GFS Probability of development:


ECWMF ensemble tracks:


GFS ensemble tracks:



source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/medium-tc-genesis?base_time=202106110000&layer_name=genesis_td&projection=opencharts_atl&valid_time=202106160000

[Ubuntwo]

Pretty notable uptick on the 12z EPS.

[Ivanhater]

12Z suite




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[cycloneye]

I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.

Thank you for the edit. I was without power and internet for 24 hours as a explosión happened at an important substation.