Watching Bay of Campeche & SW Gulf Next Week (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[toad strangler]

Where a Atlantic tropical season usually begins and usually ends!

[Iceresistance]

CPC has mentioned a High Chance Next week . . .

[Cpv17]

CPC has mentioned a High Chance Next week . . .

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/gth_full_update.png

Well at least we have something to watch now.

[psyclone]

FWIW CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks tilt wet over the southeast US...something worth monitoring along with the other suite of indicators. We seem to get these tropical moisture slugs/td/ts at this time of year just about every other year...perhaps a bit more frequently. Seems to be part of the rhythm of hurricane season.

[Cat5James]

FWIW CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks tilt wet over the southeast US...something worth monitoring along with the other suite of indicators. We seem to get these tropical moisture slugs/td/ts at this time of year just about every other year...perhaps a bit more frequently. Seems to be part of the rhythm of hurricane season.

We desperately need that moisture in SE FL... This dry pattern has been in control for the first 3+ weeks of rainy season and it looks to stick around another week.

[Hurricaneman]

Feeling excited that we may be tracking something next week but may need to watch this area carefully

[Steve]

Feeling excited that we may be tracking something next week but may need to watch this area carefully

Yeah. Seems like next weekend on is when things might get interesting. 00Z models are running now. CMC had a 997 moving up toward the Gulf Coast at 240h on the 12z run. We’ll see what comes up.

[Steve]

00z CMC has the EPAC crossover through the Bay of Campeche and then up toward the LA coast at 240 hours but is still offshore. This time it takes it to 995.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 700&fh=240

GFS is slower. And it consolidates more over Central America than the CMC. Here’s 11.5 days

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 700&fh=270

[StPeteMike]

Seems the only factor is where the initial LLC starts taking shape. Models have been windshield wiping between more interaction with CA and off the coast of Belize to the east. Whatever occurs, June 13/14 seems to be the start date set in stone.

[Steve]

Yeah. I agree with that. Obviously models 10-14 days out usually aren’t good. But both the GFS and CMC don’t really show a way out of the Gulf. We’d have to see how wet the system is. GFS takes it over to the Texas coast in the long run, but that would mean a few days of deluges anywhere from TX- FL. 500mb GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 700&fh=156

[StPeteMike]

Totally agree about long-range models, but the formation of this is only 7 days out... again, whatever does start to form. Now, potential landfall of this thing is within the 10 days+ range and thats where the models seem to be less confident, which is expected. That issue seems to be how strong a trough is that comes down around the 13th and if high pressure builds behind it over the Midwest.

[Jr0d]

Watching this closely in Key West. Going out of town on June 20th so hoping the Canadian is on to something with the faster development an westward.

Highly doubtful that I will get much more than squalls and gusts from this. I just bought a boat, even though my marina is well protected I certainly do not want to be dealing with a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

[wxman57]

Chances of development appear to be near zero for the next FIVE days. Any development looks to be in the 7-11 day time frame.

[Ivanhater]

The models I'm seeing don't look to originate from this area. More from a cross over/CAG

[Steve]

The models I'm seeing don't look to originate from this area. More from a cross over/CAG

Possible energy merge between the wave propagating over and a spin coming up from the BOC?

GFS 06z has two systems in the Gulf which was something I alluded to yesterday. I don't think that's going to happen as it's probably trying to resolve. You could see one low off the EC of Florida moving north and another in the Gulf. But I don't see 2 in the Gulf this early.

06z GFS valid for 1:00am CDT on Saturday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 706&fh=288

^^ If you play it forward from there, the eastern low goes toward SELA and washes out (ala Marco 2020) and the western low meanders off Brownsville and then moves in toward Corpus (displaced SW but ala Laura 2020). We'll see what the 12z's do.

[Ivanhater]

The models I'm seeing don't look to originate from this area. More from a cross over/CAG

Possible energy merge between the wave propagating over and a spin coming up from the BOC?

GFS 06z has two systems in the Gulf which was something I alluded to yesterday. I don't think that's going to happen as it's probably trying to resolve. You could see one low off the EC of Florida moving north and another in the Gulf. But I don't see 2 in the Gulf this early.

06z GFS valid for 1:00am CDT on Saturday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 706&fh=288

^^ If you play it forward from there, the eastern low goes toward SELA and washes out (ala Marco 2020) and the western low meanders off Brownsville and then moves in toward Corpus (displaced SW but ala Laura 2020). We'll see what the 12z's do.

Very good points Steve.

GFS has been throwing out multiple scenarios of different spin ups but it has been seeing something congealing in this area.

I remember Cristobal last year, it had multiple scenarios but it did have an overall idea.

[USTropics]

Central American Gyre developments are always tricky to forecast—it's not uncommon for multiple embedded low pressure areas to attempt to occur simultaneously in the eastern and western sides of the CAG (i.e., low pressure developments in both basins). One typically dominates the other via proximity and downstream shear.



Looking at the GFS and ECWMF ensemble members, we can see this is again a possible scenario. A crossover from the EPAC into the WGOM (with some type of merger) is the current scenario depicted by the models, but the details are likely to change again over the next few days.

ECMWF ensemble member forecasts:


GFS ensemble member forecasts:

[AutoPenalti]

Central American Gyre developments are always tricky to forecast—it's not uncommon for multiple embedded low pressure areas to attempt to occur simultaneously in the eastern and western sides of the CAG (i.e., low pressure developments in both basins). One typically dominates the other via proximity and downstream shear.

https://i.imgur.com/LRgLB13.jpg

Looking at the GFS and ECWMF ensemble members, we can see this is again a possible scenario. A crossover from the EPAC into the WGOM (with some type of merger) is the current scenario depicted by the models, but the details are likely to change again over the next few days.

ECMWF ensemble member forecasts:
https://i.imgur.com/CYRYAfk.png

GFS ensemble member forecasts:
https://i.imgur.com/WxrCzEP.png

And forecasting it is even harder, it's basically throwing a dart at a board.