“Fake” Cat 5 storms

[Tekken_Guy]

Re: the Iota situation. What storms that are officially Category 5s do you think didn’t actually make it?

[Sciencerocks]

I believe Iota was a cat5 and my archives will always show it as such. It is extremely shocking to find that they downgraded it....I fully expect them to downgrade Matthew 2016, and Emily 2005.

Seriously, i'd error on the liberal side because we all know that recon doesn't sample the entire storm. The best tool we have for full scale observation has to be the radar data that Michael and zeta was upgraded based on and I'd bet money that Iota and Eta were both cat5's based on the same standard.

[Chris90]

I believe Iota was a cat5 and my archives will always show it as such. It is extremely shocking to find that they downgraded it....I fully expect them to downgrade Matthew 2016, and Emily 2005.

Seriously, i'd error on the liberal side because we all know that recon doesn't sample the entire storm. The best tool we have for full scale observation has to be the radar data that Michael and zeta was upgraded based on and I'd bet money that Iota and Eta were both cat5's based on the same standard.

I fully agree with you about Matthew, I'd say a future downgrade is pretty inevitable for him, but I'd bet Emily '05 keeps her status as a Cat 5. She wasn't upgraded based on SFMR measurements that could be considered unreliable, there was a 700mb flight level measurement of 153kts with a 90% reduction to the surface for 138kts. She was also a small storm with a pressure of 929mb, so I think they'd be confident enough to keep her as a 5.

I would have kept Iota a 5 as well. I understand that they're iffy on the SFMR measurements, but the pressure of 917mb would have been enough for me to keep the intensity at 140kts. I'm also not an expert though, so I'll just go with what they say, can't do anything about it anyways.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm pretty firmly in the C4 Eta camp (to support an upgrade you would need flight level winds near 150 kt, and Eta is FAR from that with a peak flight level wind of 137 kt). Same with Matthew, the maximum flight level wind at its official 145 kt peak was only 137 kt. Iota was the most truly borderline case, as a blend of the flight level and SFMR data is right around the C4/C5 line. I used to be somewhat convinced Jose 2017 was a C5, but after it was determined SFMR had a high bias in intense TCs I am now less convinced.

[Stormybajan]

I'm in the boat IOTA was a Cat 5, and if it was downgraded, therefore Hurricane Matthew and 100% Lorenzo should be downgraded, I have a 10% chance Eta is upgraded even though it had one of the best satellite appearances ever in the Atlantic they simply dont have enough evidence to upgrade it by 10 mph to 160 mph so ill say next week NHC will upgrade to 155 mph for Eta. Also I am in the boat that Hurricane Igor was 100% a category 5, same with Jose at peak.

[CrazyC83]

As we wait for reanalysis from 1966 to the 1980s, Edith 1971 I could see being downgraded. The lowest pressure was 943 mb, which was fairly close to landfall. Even considering the fact it was small and rapidly intensifying, I'd only go with about 125 kt at that point (and 130 kt at landfall based on continued intensification in the ensuing couple hours, with an interpolated pressure - probably kept out of HURDAT - of 940 mb).