Gulf of Mexico unsettled (Invest 91L is up)

[hurricane2025]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[HurricaneBrain]

You would think there will be some sort of mention next TWO... We'll see

[ROCK]

You would think there will be some sort of mention next TWO... We'll see

I agree... it has got a mid level vort and looks better than earlier. CMC 12z had a TD into central TX coast.

[jaguars_22]

Looks to be moving fast? Probably doesn’t have much time over water. Looks to have good spin though!

[ROCK]

Looks to be moving fast? Probably doesn’t have much time over water. Looks to have good spin though!

Water temps are marginal..way too early for GOM activity IMO..then again CSU did predict 17 this year.

[MGC]

Sure looks like something is trying to spinup in the WGOM....MGC

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1395498924782362633

[DestinHurricane]

To me it looks like dry air is being sucked in on the SW side, if that happens its gonna be hard to build convection.

[wxman22]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the
western Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some development over the next day or so before the disturbance
moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday or Friday
night. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern
Louisiana on Friday and through the weekend. Additional information
on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure area located about 625 miles east-
northeast of Bermuda is forecast to strengthen into a storm-force
low pressure system tonight. On Friday, the low is expected to turn
west-southwestward over warmer waters and will likely become a
subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda. After
that time, the low is forecast to move northward and northeastward
into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday.
Additional information on this developing low pressure area can be
found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch,
issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the
western Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some development over the next day or so before the disturbance
moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday or Friday
night. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern
Louisiana on Friday and through the weekend. Additional information
on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Are we sure this is May 20th and not like June or July 20th?

[Cpv17]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure area located about 625 miles east-
northeast of Bermuda is forecast to strengthen into a storm-force
low pressure system tonight. On Friday, the low is expected to turn
west-southwestward over warmer waters and will likely become a
subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda. After
that time, the low is forecast to move northward and northeastward
into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday.
Additional information on this developing low pressure area can be
found in High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center and forecast products, including a tropical storm watch,
issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the
western Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some development over the next day or so before the disturbance
moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday or Friday
night. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern
Louisiana on Friday and through the weekend. Additional information
on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Are we sure this is May 20th and not like June or July 20th?

It almost seems like May has been busier than July lately unless that’s just me. It seems like there’s kind of a lull in July. I’m surprised the NHC only went with 20% but then again they’re pretty conservative.

[ROCK]

I hate being right

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS002, AL, L, , , , , 72, 2021, DB, O, 2021052100, 9999999999, , 002, , , , GENESIS, , AL722021

[ROCK]

We all remember the GFS showing future Hanna as nothing more than a cluster of rain showers even the day before. It also refused to strengthen Laura in the Gulf and we all know how that ended.

It will be interesting to see if we have the same issue this year.

agree...12Z EURO has a TD weak TS....GOM waters a marginal in May. Now if this was Augsut Sept I would be heading north now that I am closeer to the island.

[ROCK]

soon to be INVEST....would love to burn 2 names in May!

[cycloneye]

INVEST 91L is up