aspen wrote:rileydoxsee98 wrote:aspen wrote:Bumping this thread up for Cyclone Niran.
Pinhole eye, full CDG ring...you don’t get much more Cat 5 than this. If Niran holds this look, there would be an argument for a 155+ kt storm.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh23/4kmsrbdc/2021sh23_4kmsrbdc_202103051100.jpg
Yeah Niran had a really impressive CDO. However, it’s eye and it’s inner structure is poor. Niran had a double eye wall and it’s cloud tops was likely enhanced by the typical SPAC tropopause, Niran only has an OW eye. It’s clearly a T7.0. But this is a case where a T7.0 in my opinion likely isn’t a Category 5. The reason this is because the eye was pretty ragged and cold for its intensity, I don’t buy into the theory of the SPAC having bad eyes because the top end monsters there such as Hina, Nisha, Olaf, Winston didn’t have any problems with their eyes, plus the WPac often gets just as cold convection and doesn’t have problem with eyes. Imo the tropopause of the SPAC just masks a bunch of issues that the cloud tops appear to be hiding. I actually strongly doubt Niran was a Cat 5 in reality, it’s eye was pretty bad for a T7.0 and it had shear affecting it+ double eye wall structure. Very reminiscent of Hurricane Eta, which only reached official Final Ts of 6.5-7.0 and the recon observation is actually not far off from the Dvorak. But if anything I think Niran was WEAKER than Eta. I estimate Niran at 130knots/921mb. A lot of people have called me a low baller and a downcaster for my Niran estimates but that’s just my opinion. Very deep convection and bad eye, to me that indicates it’s hiding something that is being masked by the cloud tops.
Also, it wasn’t able to hold on to or improve its IR appearance for long, so if it was undergoing ERI, the winds likely did not have enough time to catch up to its structure.
Yeah. Good point. My estimate may seem too low and in reality it may be. But if Niran was a 5 I have doubts it was above 140kts. I went 130kts because SMAP indicated 120-125kts and Dvorak indicated 140kts. I had 135kts originally but I downgraded Niran to 130kts recently because of the poor inner core structure. But I totally understand why some would keep Niran as a Cat 5, cause it did hold onto DTs of 7.0 for like 18
Hours if I recall correctly.