Texas Spring 2021

[rwfromkansas]

I have learned not to complain about rain. It will be hot and dry soon enough, and this will put us above average for the year after a slow start. As long as I get good pool weather in July, that's fine with me.

[somethingfunny]

This Spring is really not at all following the 2011-like pattern I was expecting after the February cold snap.

[Ntxw]

The NAO/AO blocking has helped slow systems down to provide the split flow needed for rains as well as subsurface preventing the prior La Nina pattern from lingering.

[Haris]

This Spring is really not at all following the 2011-like pattern I was expecting after the February cold snap.

I’m sooooo grateful. Best of both worlds. A snowy awesome winter and a wet spring.

[Cpv17]

Well, I finally got a decent amount of rain this evening! Woohoooooooo! Maybe this is the start of a wetter pattern? This is the most rain in at least a month for my area. I am liking model trends right now!

Looks like the models now are trending in the wrong direction..well kinda. Still looks good just nowhere near as wet as what it was showing. Long time to go yet.

[captainbarbossa19]

Well, I finally got a decent amount of rain this evening! Woohoooooooo! Maybe this is the start of a wetter pattern? This is the most rain in at least a month for my area. I am liking model trends right now!

Looks like the models now are trending in the wrong direction..well kinda. Still looks good just nowhere near as wet as what it was showing. Long time to go yet.

Euro looks good on rainfall coverage for much of next week. One thing to keep in mind is that global models are not always very good with convective precipitation. Often times, higher rainfall totals result even though they are not shown. With such a wet pattern developing, I would not be surprised to see this pattern persist into June. I just need some rain to fill up my pond. It is down by about 2 feet right now.

[captainbarbossa19]

This Spring is really not at all following the 2011-like pattern I was expecting after the February cold snap.

I’m sooooo grateful. Best of both worlds. A snowy awesome winter and a wet spring.

Wet is a fine line. Only about 30 miles away apparently.

[Cpv17]

Well, I finally got a decent amount of rain this evening! Woohoooooooo! Maybe this is the start of a wetter pattern? This is the most rain in at least a month for my area. I am liking model trends right now!

Looks like the models now are trending in the wrong direction..well kinda. Still looks good just nowhere near as wet as what it was showing. Long time to go yet.

Euro looks good on rainfall coverage for much of next week. One thing to keep in mind is that global models are not always very good with convective precipitation. Often times, higher rainfall totals result even though they are not shown. With such a wet pattern developing, I would not be surprised to see this pattern persist into June. I just need some rain to fill up my pond. It is down by about 2 feet right now.

Yeah, I was just talking about the crazy totals that the Euro was showing a couple days ago. Now it’s just showing 4-6” across the area which is plenty of rain anyway but I’ve also noticed how lots of times it ends up raining more than what the globals are showing. The shorter range mesoscale models do better with that.

[Iceresistance]

Marginal risk of Flooding in Southern Texas Tomorrow . . .



Then Eastern Texas & Most of Oklahoma on Sunday . . .

[Haris]

Looks like the models now are trending in the wrong direction..well kinda. Still looks good just nowhere near as wet as what it was showing. Long time to go yet.

Euro looks good on rainfall coverage for much of next week. One thing to keep in mind is that global models are not always very good with convective precipitation. Often times, higher rainfall totals result even though they are not shown. With such a wet pattern developing, I would not be surprised to see this pattern persist into June. I just need some rain to fill up my pond. It is down by about 2 feet right now.

Yeah, I was just talking about the crazy totals that the Euro was showing a couple days ago. Now it’s just showing 4-6” across the area which is plenty of rain anyway but I’ve also noticed how lots of times it ends up raining more than what the globals are showing. The shorter range mesoscale models do better with that.

I don’t think it ever really showed more than 4-6... models been very consistent all week re. Next week surprisingly. Rain is coming!

[dhweather]

The GFS forecast sounding for next Tuesday evening is interesting. In addition to the CAPE, helicty and shear values, the PWAT of almost 2" is significant - the column is pretty much saturated. We may see severe weather, but we will most likely see very heavy rains in the upcoming week. FWD is advertising widespread 4-6" with isolated 8-10" totals for next week.

[dhweather]

The 12Z GFS has a CAT 5 IN THE GULF IN 198 HOURS!! ok, maybe a cat 0.5

[Cpv17]

Euro looks good on rainfall coverage for much of next week. One thing to keep in mind is that global models are not always very good with convective precipitation. Often times, higher rainfall totals result even though they are not shown. With such a wet pattern developing, I would not be surprised to see this pattern persist into June. I just need some rain to fill up my pond. It is down by about 2 feet right now.

Yeah, I was just talking about the crazy totals that the Euro was showing a couple days ago. Now it’s just showing 4-6” across the area which is plenty of rain anyway but I’ve also noticed how lots of times it ends up raining more than what the globals are showing. The shorter range mesoscale models do better with that.

I don’t think it ever really showed more than 4-6... models been very consistent all week re. Next week surprisingly. Rain is coming!

For southeast TX it was showing 6-10” widespread with isolated 20” spots for a couple runs but I’m not complaining lol that’s a bit too much even for me and I love rain

[Iceresistance]

A LOT of rain is expected for most of Texas & Oklahoma . . .

[rwfromkansas]

NAM really dropping rain amounts for DFW. Maybe a half-inch now.

FWD may have to drop flood talk.

[Cpv17]

Well I see the models are back to showing some crazy totals again this morning for southeast TX. Yet the WPC still doesn’t really buy it.

[Iceresistance]

NAM really dropping rain amounts for DFW. Maybe a half-inch now.

FWD may have to drop flood talk.

Well, I'm expecting up to 5 inches in 1 week!

[rwfromkansas]

I do think DFW will get at least two inches regardless of models, just don’t get why the NAM and HRRR show lesser amounts for Sunday than yesterday. Still a lot in OK/along Red River.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS out though 138 hours (1AM Friday) has widespread 4-6" totals across most of North Texas, 6-12" across much of Southeast Texas. It's gonna rain a whole lot with this extremely slow moving cutoff low.

[Ntxw]

Flood/flash flood watches probably coming soon for much of Texas and Oklahoma. Historical analogs for this set up has seen some impressive rainfall during May. Don't get caught up with model totals, training is hard to see until it is happening or within 24 hours. The lakes are going to go over their normal levels, with upstream heavy rainfall may be a few days for the River flooding to react as well.

The flow is blocked, ridge in SE and systems riding the narrow highway thru southern plains is recipe for tons of rain with rich gulf incoming moisture.