Yowsers...

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chadtm80

Yowsers...

#1 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Nov 05, 2003 4:45 pm

If this was a couple of months ago, there would be some excited people around here.. LOL

Image
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 05, 2003 4:50 pm

That area is related to the ITCZ that is fairly active with an big trough in that area causing a divergent flow forming that big area of convection but upper conditions are unfavorable and chad I agree with you that if this would be august or september all eyes would be focused there.
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Stormsfury
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Nov 05, 2003 7:07 pm

I posted about this last night ... VERY interesting situation unfolding here thread.

1) NEG MJO
2) Unusually strong ridging and less wind shear than normal

Last night's model were hinting at the potential for development down the road ... I'm currently getting ready to review tonight's model guidance (for the first time all day) and see what we have ...

SF
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Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Wed Nov 05, 2003 8:59 pm

Possible development that far out this late in the season. Would be very interesting. 25 days and counting.. lets' see what happens
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ColdFront77

#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Nov 05, 2003 9:57 pm

We should still be excited. We are weather enthusiasts. :)

Something to monitor no matter what happens with it, whatever the case... that is a lot of shower and thunderstorm activity.
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wxman57
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#6 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 05, 2003 10:31 pm

Well, as of today, I have new capabilities at home. I can launch Citrix and log into my office workstation to run GARP. Here's a snapshot of the NW Caribbean with 200mb 00Z winds over the top of a satellite image. As you can see, the tropical wave is encountering significant shear on the western side of the ridge:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/disturb.gif">

Now, if you're looking at mid-level steering currents by 12Z (6am CST) Friday, the mean winds from 400-700 MB look like the image below. Note the high over the NW Gulf that would drive anything trying to develop in the NW Caribbean or southern Gulf southwest into Mexico.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/meanwinds.gif">
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Dave C
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#7 Postby Dave C » Wed Nov 05, 2003 10:47 pm

That's a "skinny" upper ridge. :lol:
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chadtm80

#8 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Nov 06, 2003 7:36 am

Looking even more impressive this am
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