Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[Iceresistance]

The 6z CFSv2 model may be showing THIS in the Fantasy range, but that is nearing 6000 CAPE!

It would be a nightmare scenario if this verifies . . .

[Iceresistance]

18z NAM Soundings

Near Tecumseh, OK


Near Norman, OK

[Iceresistance]

Severe Storms no longer expected across Western Oklahoma, Cap Bust

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk to the Southeast Today

[Iceresistance]

24 hours later (6z CFSv2), 2 days with OVER 6000 CAPE
(Keep in mind that it's over 300 hours out, it's in the fantasy range)
If this verifies, then it's going to be extremely rough . . .

[ElectricStorm]

24 hours later (6z CFSv2), 2 days with OVER 6000 CAPE
(Keep in mind that it's over 300 hours out, it's in the fantasy range)
If this verifies, then it's going to be extremely rough . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/CFSUS_con_sbcape_354.png

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/CFSUS_con_sbcape_378.png

I wouldn't even bother paying attention to these long range runs. They're wrong pretty much all the time. Although they can be pretty entertaining sometimes

[ElectricStorm]

Storm warned for 4 inch hail in TX... Ouch
Also looks like a sigtor happened about an hour ago in TN. NWS Memphis getting ripped for a late warning apparently

[Brent]

I just have one question where did May go

[ElectricStorm]

Could see some smaller events between now and next weekend, like the possible hail event in TX tomorrow. The last several GFS runs have the moisture starting to return on 5/15 and then it's just nonstop severe events after that. Now I don't take much stock in long range model runs, and I don't think it's going to be as crazy as these runs suggest, however I do think that the second half of May is going to feature quite a few events, so this will be something to watch for sure.

Also the Euro has the moisture returning around the same time as the GFS.

[Iceresistance]

I just have one question where did May go

I know! It was crispy & chilly yesterday, lowest wind chill was 40ºF & it only got up to the low 60s . . .

[Iceresistance]

Unexpected severe storm south of Duncan, OK, heading towards Ardmore, OK . . .

[Iceresistance]

Could see some smaller events between now and next weekend, like the possible hail event in TX tomorrow. The last several GFS runs have the moisture starting to return on 5/15 and then it's just nonstop severe events after that. Now I don't take much stock in long range model runs, and I don't think it's going to be as crazy as these runs suggest, however I do think that the second half of May is going to feature quite a few events, so this will be something to watch for sure.

Also the Euro has the moisture returning around the same time as the GFS.

Well, that is when my grandparents are going to be in Springfield & Branson, Missouri this coming weekend into next week . . .

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk added to SW Texas for BIG hail . . .

[Cpv17]

Next week is looking intriguing.

[Iceresistance]

Next week is looking intriguing.

What does it look like? More Supercell action?

That is the week when my school goes out for Summer!

[Cpv17]

Next week is looking intriguing.

What does it look like? More Supercell action?

That is the week when my school goes out for Summer!

A stormy pattern for the southern plains. Could be some flooding as well.

[Iceresistance]

Next week is looking intriguing.

What does it look like? More Supercell action?

That is the week when my school goes out for Summer!

A stormy pattern for the southern plains. Could be some flooding as well.

Yeah, the CPC has put out a Slight risk for heavy rain in the Southern Plains into Next week . . .

EDIT: And FAR into Next week . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Decent amount of reports today for hail however the enhanced risk busted. Quite a bit of reports from the marginal and slight risk areas though. Looking ahead it's gonna be a quiet week, but we could be looking at an uptick again starting around 5/15... Ensembles don't really look to bad. Operational runs showing some cutoff low action, but I would go with the ensembles at this range. Plus the operational models, specifically the GFS, has been insanely bad this year. The 0z GFS run is Exhibit A for that

[Iceresistance]

Decent amount of reports today for hail however the enhanced risk busted. Quite a bit of reports from the marginal and slight risk areas though. Looking ahead it's gonna be a quiet week, but we could be looking at an uptick again starting around 5/15... Ensembles don't really look to bad. Operational runs showing some cutoff low action, but I would go with the ensembles at this range. Plus the operational models, specifically the GFS, has been insanely bad this year. The 0z GFS run is Exhibit A for that

The Enhanced risk did not bust, it just moved to DFW Metroplex!

Parts of DFW reported Softball Sized hail!

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is a very inactive severe storm season