Texas Spring 2021

[bubba hotep]

Flooding is very possible in Southern Texas through Mid-May

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/GFSSGP_prec_precacc_384.png

The 12z 3K NAM shows 2" plus totals for a large portion of Texas. This system is doing it's best to tackle the emerging drought. Also, DFW had a very dry January but should be above normal for the year once we close the books on an above normal April.

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed something very odd with the Supercells last night . . .


San Antonio Supercell: Threatened with Baseball sized hail & misses to the north, pounding Suburban Cities & Lackland AFB . . .

DFW Supercell: Threatened Fort Worth with up to Softball sized hail, misses to the north, but pounded Keller, TX & Other Suburban Cities with the big hail

OKC Supercell: Threatened the OKC Metro with up to Softball sized hail & 80 mph winds, but misses to the South & Plummeted Norman, OK

What do you think?

[Cpv17]

I've noticed something very odd with the Supercells last night . . .


San Antonio Supercell: Threatened with Baseball sized hail & misses to the north, pounding Suburban Cities & Lackland AFB . . .

DFW Supercell: Threatened Fort Worth with up to Softball sized hail, misses to the north, but pounded Keller, TX & Other Suburban Cities with the big hail

OKC Supercell: Threatened the OKC Metro with up to Softball sized hail & 80 mph winds, but misses to the South & Plummeted Norman, OK

What do you think?

OKC often times misses out on the really bad stuff to the south or west. El Reno, Bridge Creek, Moore tornadoes. Some of the worst ever in the whole world all pretty much missed OKC.

[Cpv17]

Wow, what a wild evening that was! Thankfully the tornadic supercell weakened as it moved into SA or else it could've been really bad. Much needed rain so far from this event which looks to just be starting!

Models are now finally in good agreement on elevated rain chances remaining in the forecast through the weekend. Bring it on!

Looks like some training could set up along the 59 corridor.

[Ntxw]

Trend has been to cut off the ULL feature and will continue to be a wet period for the southern plains. It's been really beneficial we need it badly.

[Iceresistance]

Trend has been to cut off the ULL feature and will continue to be a wet period for the southern plains. It's been really beneficial we need it badly.

That is very welcome news for those in Southern Texas, it's going to bring a LOT of rainfall down there . . .

[Cpv17]

Trend has been to cut off the ULL feature and will continue to be a wet period for the southern plains. It's been really beneficial we need it badly.

That is very welcome news for those in Southern Texas, it's going to bring a LOT of rainfall down there . . .

Yep! Very exciting news for me. Some of the hi-res models are nailing my area pretty hard.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Tomorrow looks like a complete washout for SE TX. Wouldnt be surprised if flood watches go up.

[Cpv17]

Tomorrow looks like a complete washout for SE TX. Wouldnt be surprised if flood watches go up.

Yeah. The latest HRRR is suggesting 6+” for many areas of southeast TX.

[captainbarbossa19]

Tomorrow looks like a complete washout for SE TX. Wouldnt be surprised if flood watches go up.

Yeah. The latest HRRR is suggesting 6+” for many areas of southeast TX.

Bring it. We can handle that amount easily. It would be about right for April to turn from below normal rainfall, to well-above average. When you start getting widespread heavy rains this time of year, that is often a good sign for more rain events later in May/June.

[Cpv17]

Tomorrow looks like a complete washout for SE TX. Wouldnt be surprised if flood watches go up.

Yeah. The latest HRRR is suggesting 6+” for many areas of southeast TX.

Bring it. We can handle that amount easily. It would be about right for April to turn from below normal rainfall, to well-above average. When you start getting widespread heavy rains this time of year, that is often a good sign for more rain events later in May/June.

After this event, we could be dealing with another event and severe threat on Tuesday.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of SE TX tonight-Sunday morning.

Afternoon and evening short range model runs continue to suggest a line of slow moving thunderstorms with the potential to produce hourly rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will develop later this evening into Friday morning roughly from Huntsville toward Columbus and then slowly sag southward toward NW and N Harris County in the 500-700am time frame and then toward I-10 in the 700-900am period. Timing could change either direction by a few hours.

Slow storm motions along with increasing potential for cell training and hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are increasing the threat for street flooding. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches is looking increasingly likely with isolated totals of 4-8 inches and would not rule out a 10 inch maximum somewhere. Amounts in the short range (CAMs guidance) have been increasing this afternoon and evening.

Bayous and creeks will be able to handle rainfall amounts upwards of 5 inches, but totals over that in a short period of time could result in near bankfull conditions on some of the smaller channels.

WPC has upgraded much of the area into a slight risk of flash flooding.

[Cpv17]

Not impressed with the rainfall totals so far today. Was expecting a lot more heavier rains. Most of the rain has been on the light to moderate side so far but that’s better anyways. Less runoff.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1.75" so far for me. Thats about as much as the soil can take, anyway. I enjoy the lovely cool, breezy 70F weather though!

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is looking very scary on May 3rd for Oklahoma & Texas, but it looks like that most of Texas is capped . . .

CAPE levels

DFW


Austin


San Antonio


Dew Points

DFW


Austin


San Antonio

[Cpv17]

10” of rain so far here.

[Ntxw]

April came in below normal for most of Texas and the south-central US along with the US in general. In fact it's basically similar to what happened in February with the record cold temps in mid April akin to mid February. There was a similar blocking episode in both cases.

90s returning Monday before a quick shot of cool air for early May.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1388509835394789377

[aggiecutter]

[Haris]

Well, looks like most of south central texas finally cashed in with 3-7” widespread. I believe San Antonio has seen around 8” officially this past week.

Here in W Austin, I’m ending the week with 4.7” about.

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/M1xDn9n/weather.jpg [/url]

Uh oh, that does not look good at all, a 2019 repeat?