Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is quite a march. April is looking EXTREMELY active.

[Iceresistance]

0z NAM soundings

[Iceresistance]

6z NAM soundings


Likely Contamiated, but OMG!


Also Likely Contamiated

[cheezyWXguy]

If future runs continue to follow the 11z HRRR I think Birmingham will get added to the high risk in a future update.

[cheezyWXguy]

6z NAM soundings

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021032506_NAM_012_32.94-89.65_severe_ml.png
Likely Contamiated, but OMG!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021032506_NAM_012_32.86-89.98_severe_ml.png
Also Likely Contamiated

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021032506_NAM_015_33.9-88.09_severe_ml.png

Wtf, that last one...

[InfernoFlameCat]

That last sounding WHAT! That is insane for a none contaminated sounding!!!! Holy crap Wow This Is Serious!

[AnnularCane]

Also what is the highest sounding yall have ever seen? How did that turn out?

I remember, we once had tor:con around 14 and SFBCape 8000 ? for the Jacksonville section. Weather forecasters even went to the place by plane. It was a bust though.

14? Surely you exaggerate. I've seen a 10 on 4/27/2011 and that was the highest.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

At this point, there's not much reason to look at non-CAM models, and even then, I'd only look at models to compare their predictions to real-life verification. The NAM is a bit too broad for ideal use at this close timeframe.

Better to shift into nowcasting/comparing soundings with those from models like the HRRR.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow the wording in the Day 1 outlook is the some of the strongest I've ever seen from SPC. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 45 hatched tornado risk later...

[Iceresistance]

Wow the wording in the Day 1 outlook is the some of the strongest I've ever seen from SPC. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 45 hatched tornado risk later...

Or a 60% Hatched . . .

A tornado outbreak -- including the threat of a few long-tracked,
violent tornadoes -- is expected today into early this evening over
the Southeast, especially parts of Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds
to hurricane force also are possible over a broad area from the
central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.

[Bunkertor]

Also what is the highest sounding yall have ever seen? How did that turn out?

I remember, we once had tor:con around 14 and SFBCape 8000 ? for the Jacksonville section. Weather forecasters even went to the place by plane. It was a bust though.

14? Surely you exaggerate. I've seen a 10 on 4/27/2011 and that was the highest.

I remember Spann saying " I thought the scale ends at ~ 12 ". But OK, can be, i am wrong here.

[Iceresistance]

Too many 12z NAM Soundings are contamiated

[ElectricStorm]

Wow the wording in the Day 1 outlook is the some of the strongest I've ever seen from SPC. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 45 hatched tornado risk later...

Or a 60% Hatched . . .

A tornado outbreak -- including the threat of a few long-tracked,
violent tornadoes -- is expected today into early this evening over
the Southeast, especially parts of Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds
to hurricane force also are possible over a broad area from the
central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.

Honestly if there's ever a day that even has a chance at a 60#, it's today. I think a 45# is all but certain on a later outlook now. Synoptically, 4/27/11 is the #1 analogue to today. I personally have a rule that I never compare any setups to one of the Super Outbreaks, and I don't think this will be another super outbreak. But today certainly has very high end potential. The only way that rule goes out the window is if a 60# is issued. (Which I still think is unlikely).

[InfernoFlameCat]

There is one spot on the hrrr cape that shows 3500+ JEWLS per Kilogram!!!!

[Bunkertor]

Iceresistance : Could you please link your soundings site

The first MD is in

@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?

[Bunkertor]

There is one spot on the hrrr cape that shows 3500+ JEWLS per Kilogram!!!!

But significant weakening after 21z, whereas the SPC is going full throttle. I guess, it is an error.

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance : Could you please link your soundings site

The first MD is in

@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[Texas Snowman]

Iceresistance : Could you please link your soundings site

The first MD is in

@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?

I think so...

[Bunkertor]

Iceresistance : Could you please link your soundings site

The first MD is in

@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Thanks, i have already found it, i just wondered, why my sounding sites differ

[FormerNewtotex]

Wording from the SPC:

This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space. In such an
environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of
multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5
possible), with considerable destructive potential.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html