Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[Iceresistance]

Wow okay I have nothing to add meteorologically speaking (Is that a word?). Definitely going to be on radar tomorrow. Any new impressive soundings Iceresistance?

Yes, I already posted them . . . (Post #554 is the 12z GFS soundings over Mississippi, even though that the GFS is likely conserative with this one . . .)

[FormerNewtotex]

NAM is showing STP of 10-12 from Tuscaloosa up through west/northwest Alabama, NE MS, SC TN for tomorrow which is insane, that's about as high as it gets:


Some crazy updraft helicity too:

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

NAM is showing STP of 10-12 from Tuscaloosa up through west/northwest Alabama, NE MS, SC TN for tomorrow which is insane, that's about as high as it gets: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExQLNzHWgAITORq?format=png&name=medium


Some crazy updraft helicity too: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExQk_KeXEAIFkML?format=jpg&name=large

Keep in mind that WeatherBell tends to have a higher STP value compared to other websites displaying the same model - might be something with their formula for determining it.

[FormerNewtotex]

NAM is showing STP of 10-12 from Tuscaloosa up through west/northwest Alabama, NE MS, SC TN for tomorrow which is insane, that's about as high as it gets: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExQLNzHWgAITORq?format=png&name=medium


Some crazy updraft helicity too: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ExQk_KeXEAIFkML?format=jpg&name=large

Keep in mind that WeatherBell tends to have a higher STP value compared to other websites displaying the same model - might be something with their formula for determining it.

Ah gotcha. I just pulled those from James Spann's Twitter, no particular model

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk extended again into SW Texas

[Iceresistance]

18z NAM Soundings on COD Metrology







(Next post will show the comparsions to Pivotal Weather)

[Iceresistance]

18z NAM Pivotal Weather Soundings . . .


(May be contaminated because of rapid moisture level changes)

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Watch #47 in Central Texas

[Iceresistance]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #48 for Northern Texas, also includes DFW

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think this will be high risk

[InfernoFlameCat]

When is the next update and can anyone give me the time for every one?

[Iceresistance]

When is the next update and can anyone give me the time for every one?

Times for GFS model (Since the upgrade)
6z: 4:30 AM-6:15 AM
12z: 10:30 AM-12:15 PM
18z: 4:30 PM-6:15 PM
0z: 10:30 PM-12:15 AM

NAM
6z: 2:35 AM
12z: 8:35 AM
18z: 2:35 PM
0z: 8:35 PM

[ElectricStorm]

I won't be able to stay up for the Day 1 this time as I don't feel well at all...which is unfortunate.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking the SPC keeps the moderate for at least the first update. Recent model runs are messier than earlier, and there's still uncertainty about storm mode, and interaction between cells.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm thinking the SPC keeps the moderate for at least the first update. Recent model runs are messier than earlier, and there's still uncertainty about storm mode, and interaction between cells.

The verdict is in, high risk it is

[ElectricStorm]

2 high risks in March is just insane...

[Bunkertor]

9.0 STP! Does this warrant a high risk? I still am not clear on what the deciding factor is for a high risk.

Imo, yes, because initiation is scheduled around 18z .

[Bunkertor]

Also what is the highest sounding yall have ever seen? How did that turn out?

I remember, we once had tor:con around 14 and SFBCape 8000 ? for the Jacksonville section. Weather forecasters even went to the place by plane. It was a bust though.

[Iceresistance]

Look at this map!

[cheezyWXguy]

Today has the potential to be what 3/17 wasn’t (not that it wasn’t bad). Lake Charles observed sounding shows a surprisingly stout cap, which will limit the possibility of excessive storm development competing for inflow. This is probably why the HRRR is back to showing a destructive outbreak.