Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[InfernoFlameCat]

9.0 STP! Does this warrant a high risk? I still am not clear on what the deciding factor is for a high risk.

[ElectricStorm]

March 2021 is now the first March with more than 2 moderate risks (or higher) since 2008. The last time there were more than 2 high risks in March was... Idk I'll have to do some digging on that... Maybe during my zoom classes in a few minutes

EDIT: I just went through the SPC database and there are no Marches with 2 or more high risks. The database goes back to 2000.

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM soundings in Mississippi & Alabama

The first 2 are likely contaminated . . .




This one is likely not . . .

[Iceresistance]

March 2021 is now the first March with more than 2 moderate risks (or higher) since 2008. The last time there were more than 2 high risks in March was... Idk I'll have to do some digging on that... Maybe during my zoom classes in a few minutes

EDIT: I just went through the SPC database and there are no Marches with 2 or more high risks. The database goes back to 2000.

1984 is the last year with 2 High risk days in March . . .

Where I found it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days

[InfernoFlameCat]

So how big does the omega value need to be for the sounding to be contaminated?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also what is the highest sounding yall have ever seen? How did that turn out?

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... 49bcbea61b
Check out this NAM sounding with 36.7 Supercell and 9.8 STP fix

[Iceresistance]

So how big does the omega value need to be for the sounding to be contaminated?

It has to stick out very far right on a sounding close to the surface, but other soundings in the same general area must not have that feature for the one to be contamiated . . .

[Iceresistance]

Also what is the highest sounding yall have ever seen? How did that turn out?

I once spotted a contaminated STP 11 sounding near El Reno a couple weeks ago . . .

[ElectricStorm]

March 2021 is now the first March with more than 2 moderate risks (or higher) since 2008. The last time there were more than 2 high risks in March was... Idk I'll have to do some digging on that... Maybe during my zoom classes in a few minutes

EDIT: I just went through the SPC database and there are no Marches with 2 or more high risks. The database goes back to 2000.

1984 is the last year with 2 High risk days in March . . .

Where I found it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days

Wow I don't know why I didn't just go to that page in the first place since I've used it multiple times...I can be pretty stupid sometimes lol
Anyway yeah 1984... so it's been a fat minute, and that was back when the criteria for the risk levels was different than it is now. I believe it was 25 hatched for a high and now it's 30 hatched (for tornadoes). Either way this will certainly get a spot in the history book if we do end up getting a high, which I think we might see one by the Day 1 outlook tonight if these trends continue. Local offices in the moderate risk are already mentioning a more favorable environment for violent tornadoes than last week in their AFD's.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ok so I found a sounding that is probably not contaminated and it has insane values. It is the one I posted above.

[Iceresistance]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=scp&rh=2021032406&fh=36&r=conus&lon=-89.3370&lat=32.0081&metar=&st=f069e096aa14743b0c966849bcbea61b
Check out this NAM sounding with 36.7 Supercell and 9.8 STP fix

I'll put a photo here since the sounding on the site does not show up unless you click the site to produce the model sounding . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thanks that is the one!

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS Soundings

SE Mississippi


ENE Mississippi

[InfernoFlameCat]

When is the next SPC update?

[Iceresistance]

When is the next SPC update?

11:30 AM CST for Day 1
12:30 PM CST for Day 2

[ElectricStorm]

Enhanced added for today

[ElectricStorm]

SPC mentions a high risk may be needed...

[Iceresistance]

SPC mentions a high risk may be needed...

The Moderate risk is even bigger & broader . . .



And the mentioning hint from the SPC

an upgrade to High Risk for
multiple strong to potentially violent, long-track tornadoes may be
needed in a later outlook update.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow okay I have nothing to add meteorologically speaking (Is that a word?). Definitely going to be on radar tomorrow. Any new impressive soundings Iceresistance?