Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
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AnnularCane
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Thanks for the clarification. And yikes.
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
18z GFS Soundings at +48 hours
Northern Mississippi
Southeastern Mississippi (Potentally Contaminated)
Also a INSANE sounding over SW Mississippi at +45 hours
Northern Mississippi
Southeastern Mississippi (Potentally Contaminated)
Also a INSANE sounding over SW Mississippi at +45 hours
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Turned out to be juicy ahead of the front. Reports of 5+” around south LA today and I’m sure that will continue. Might see some 8+ areas today, and we still have a couple days to go.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Steve wrote:Turned out to be juicy ahead of the front. Reports of 5+” around south LA today and I’m sure that will continue. Might see some 8+ areas today, and we still have a couple days to go.
My house got 3-5 inches of rain Yesterday & Last Night
(Approx. measurement because my rain gauges broke last month)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
So apparently Alabama is up to 25 tornadoes on 3/17. That makes 3/17 the 6th largest outbreak recorded in Alabama state history...
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Day 2 moderate
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Here it is guys, straight from the SPC summary for Day 2...
A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is forecast for Thu (03/25)
A potential outbreak of severe storms including several long track strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind will exist Thursday into Thursday evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States.
A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is forecast for Thu (03/25)
A potential outbreak of severe storms including several long track strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind will exist Thursday into Thursday evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Well this could be interesting...
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
The Moderate risk is STILL somewhat broad, there is STILL a chance for a High Risk, I'm giving that chance a 30% . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
I seriously hope we do not have another high risk in March. That would spell trouble!Iceresistance wrote:The Moderate risk is STILL somewhat broad, there is STILL a chance for a High Risk, I'm giving that chance a 30% . . .
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
I believe the night tornadoes will not flop this time like the last. The low level jet and upper level jet are going to be more powerful this time compared to last.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
0z NAM Soundings
Potentally Contamiated
Potentally Contamiated
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
WOW Those are impressive soundings 33.6 for supercells is ridiculous. Iceresistance is that higher than the last outbreak's soundings?(3/17)
Last edited by InfernoFlameCat on Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Those plots are noticeably more favorable for strong tornadoes than 3/17’s were. Srh values for that event were only 200-300 m2/s2 for most of the area except immediately near the warm front. If these model trends keep up I don’t see how we don’t get a high risk tomorrow. Only potential failure mode I can see is a cap that might not be strong enough to prevent too many cells from going up and crowding the area.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Anyone know the predicted atmospheric CAPE?
Also if we get a 10 on STP!!! That would warrant serious bad news.
Also if we get a 10 on STP!!! That would warrant serious bad news.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
InfernoFlameCat wrote:WOW Those are impressive soundings 33.6 for supercells is ridiculous. Iceresistance is that higher than the last outbreak's soundings?(3/17)
Yes . . .
Also, the Supercell Composite is EVEN HIGHER than last week's outbreak . . .
The highest SCP last week was a 8
The highest SCP for Tomorrow right now is a 24
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
I'm about to take a look on the GFS & NAM soundings across Dixie Alley for Tomorrow . . .
I'm going to take a look at the soundings & post them here when I'm done . . .
I'm going to take a look at the soundings & post them here when I'm done . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
0z GFS sounding at Eastern Mississippi
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
6z GFS Soundings
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9288
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
6z NAM sounding . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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