Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ice_resistance, This is called the Severe Storm season for a reason...

[Iceresistance]

Storm season started off very strong already with a Moderate-High-Moderate Risk days in March . . .

What will April & May show? Collapse like 2020 or stay strong like 2019?

Only time will tell with this season . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Thursday looks big, like really big. Obviously it's still 4 days out so there's plenty of time for the models to downtrend, and it really depends on what happens today and tomorrow... So there's still a lot of uncertainty. But to me, Thursday looks scarier than last Wednesday did at this range... If these trends continue (big if), then it might get ugly out there...

[Iceresistance]

Wall of rain coming in . . .

[Iceresistance]

Thursday looks big, like really big. Obviously it's still 4 days out so there's plenty of time for the models to downtrend, and it really depends on what happens today and tomorrow... So there's still a lot of uncertainty. But to me, Thursday looks scarier than last Wednesday did at this range... If these trends continue (big if), then it might get ugly out there...

Yeah, there is a chance it could get really ugly . . .

The Last Wednesday's event had only up to EF2 tornadoes, but there were 3 or 4 of them . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Thursday looks big, like really big. Obviously it's still 4 days out so there's plenty of time for the models to downtrend, and it really depends on what happens today and tomorrow... So there's still a lot of uncertainty. But to me, Thursday looks scarier than last Wednesday did at this range... If these trends continue (big if), then it might get ugly out there...

Yeah, there is a chance it could get really ugly . . .

The Last Wednesday's event had only up to EF2 tornadoes, but there were 3 or 4 of them . . .

Yeah I think a couple of them could have been stronger but they (thankfully) didn't cause much damage

[InfernoFlameCat]

No Ef4s withs a high risk? Wow

[Iceresistance]

INSANE 12z GFS SOUNDINGS on the March 25th Potental Event, Trying to see if it's contaminated or not . . .

#1


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#4

[Iceresistance]

The SCP on the 12z GFS is also INSANE across the Southeastern part of Dixie Alley, it's even higher than last week's High Risk Day

(Highest SCP is 18 in SW Mississippi)

[Iceresistance]

Mesoscale Discussion #227

[Iceresistance]

Thunderstorm Watch #44

[underthwx]

Ice..thanks for starting this thread, and all of yall.. very informative.. keep it up!

[Iceresistance]

Ice..thanks for starting this thread, and all of yall.. very informative.. keep it up!

Thanks!

[Iceresistance]

Thunderstorm watch over Central Oklahoma may not be needed, it's too messy on Radar

[Iceresistance]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #45

[Steve]

Looks like NCEP reduces some of the estimates for 7+ but expanded the 4-5” from New Orleans over to Baldwin county and also up toward Hattiesburg. Not sure about severe at and near the coast, but there is likely to be lots of training due to the moisture flow from the southeast ahead of the SW-NE stalled front with multiple impulses supplying energy for maybe 48-60 hours. Some low lying areas and neighborhoods will probably flood. Hopefully for most it’s just a rainy period that’s spread out over a few days instead of too much at once

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1616471373

Edit to add the mesoscale models seem to indicate a little less rain but some possible stronger or possibly severe storms over the interior of the deep south and maybe Tennessee Valley as that warm air comes up before the low pushes by.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Now enhanced risk across much of the deep south.

[Iceresistance]

UNCONTAMINATED 6z GFS sounding over Mississippi, the Supercell Composite there is around 18

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thanks Iceresistance, that is quite an impressive sounding. We have been deprived of a good severe weather season for too long; perhaps 2021 will make up for that. However, despite 2020's general inactivity it was very active for me as I had 4 tornado warnings that year and three tornadoes pass within 25 miles of my house.(2Ef0 and 1Ef1)

[Iceresistance]

500 Posts!

I've not made an proper observation at my house since February because my Rain Guages broke . . .

I've calculated that my house got 3-5 inches of rain Yesterday . . .