Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[Iceresistance]

Several Weather YT Channels are already getting started on their Severe Weather Livestreams . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Already clearing in MS on visible sat... I've got a horrible feeling about today

[InfernoFlameCat]

Already clearing in MS on visible sat... I've got a horrible feeling about today

Yeah it does not look good at all. Nothing will stop these storms from becoming absolute monsters.

[InfernoFlameCat]

First isolated supercells are forming in Mississippi.

[Iceresistance]

I'm ready to track the Supercells on my Chromebook, my gut is sinking big time about this . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow really starting to blow up now. We may see first tornadoes in front of the line in about an hour.

[ElectricStorm]

PDS watch coming in about an hour

[InfernoFlameCat]

I wonder if an EF5 comes out of this.

[Iceresistance]

I wonder if an EF5 comes out of this.

We not had an EF-5 Tornado since Moore, OK 5.20.2013 . . .

But today may change that . . .

[ElectricStorm]

45 hatched... Holy crap

[InfernoFlameCat]

45 hatched... Holy crap

Where are you getting this?
I am on https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html and I don't see a 45% hatched.

[ElectricStorm]

45 hatched... Holy crap

Where are you getting this?
I am on https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html and I don't see a 45% hatched.

https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/
It updates faster

[Iceresistance]

Mesoscale Discussion #200



80% chance of a PDS Tornado Watch


SPC Discussion

The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for
tornadic supercells and a PDS tornado watch will likely be needed
within the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and satellite imagery continues to show
deepening convection within the broad and robust warm-air advection
regime across much of MS and AL. Some modest clearing occurred
briefly ahead of the leading showers over MS and temperatures across
much of central and southern MS are now in the mid 70s. Slightly
cooler surface temperatures exist across central/southern AL.
Dewpoints exhibit a similar trend, with upper 60s/low 70s across
much of central/southern MS and mid to upper 60s across
central/southern AL. These thermodynamic conditions have eroded much
of the convective inhibition across the region, although forecast
soundings do suggests some minimal (i.e. MLCIN of -25 J/kg or more)
likely remains in place at the top of the boundary layer. Continued
moistening of the low-level profile coupled with slight cooling
aloft should result in a removal of all convective inhibition.

In addition to improving thermodynamics, the low-level wind fields
continue to increase. Recent VAD profiles from LIX and DGX show 50
kts within the 1-2 km layer. Latest VAD from DGX also sampled 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity over 350 m2/s2. These strengthening
low-level winds are expected to persist while gradually spreading
northward/northeastward into more of northern AL. Deep-layer
vertical shear is already in place over the region, with 0-6 km bulk
shear currently 50 kt over central MS/AL, increasing to 70 kt over
northern MS/AL.

In all, the overall environment is expected to becoming increasingly
favorable for discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including intense tornadoes. These initial storms are forecast to
develop within the 17-19Z time frame. A prolonged threat for
tornadoes is anticipated across the region, with conditions
remaining favorable well into the evening.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ok got it. Thanks.

[Iceresistance]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning smack dab over Houston, TX

[InfernoFlameCat]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning smack dab over Houston, TX

Yeah I was wondering if they would call it. That is quite a storm over it.

[Iceresistance]

The High Risk . . . is even BIGGER!



I'm getting the 2011 SPC outlooks on the Super Outbreak flashbacks . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

The Day 2 outlook might get bumped to a high later on.

[Iceresistance]

Storm near Tuscaloosa, AL is already almost severe

Has a hook feature on Radar, but the rotation is weak for now . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

Storm near Tuscaloosa, AL is already almost severe

Has a hook feature on Radar, but the rotation is weak for now . . .

It is capped right now so it can't get too high in the atmosphere. This will soon change.