Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#381 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:29 pm

Severe Thunderstorm warning for Golf Ball sized hail & 60 mph winds for Panhandle Texas . . .
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#382 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:39 pm

Mesoscale Discussion #187

80% of a Watch in Northern Oklahoma & Southern Kansas

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#383 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:57 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #22 for Panhandle Texas, NW Oklahoma, & Southern Kansas

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#384 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:01 pm

Here they come. Popping up now.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#385 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:55 pm

Mesoscale Discussion #188

Weather Watch very likely across Western Texas . . .

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#386 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:35 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #23

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#387 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:37 pm

The Hobart Supercell is starting to turn East, it likely found more favorable CAPE towards OKC & is heading there . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#388 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:24 pm

Tornado warning SW of OKC. Brief tornado reported earlier near Hobart
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#389 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:56 am

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
Image
First high risk in March since 2012... I hope everyone in the risk area stays safe and has a good way to get warnings... This right here has potential to be the event of the year.
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#390 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:01 am

Weather Dude wrote:...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
https://i.imgur.com/SdfiJEp.png

I’m actually surprised they went high risk, given the potential failure modes. Various models throughout the day have shown some backing below 3km and an abundance of junk convection. It’s hard for me to believe the probabilities are higher than last year’s Easter outbreak, which only yielded a moderate outlook from the SPC. Still, they’re the experts, and it should be quite a significant event regardless
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#391 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:07 am

Well hopefully this follows in the footsteps of the rest of the highs that have been issued since the 5 tier scale was introduced in late 2014... They all underperformed. Maybe this one will too...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#392 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:13 am

And on top of all this.. another huge Day2 moderate
Image

And it's mid March
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#393 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:32 am

Well, The storms did something very annoying . . . :grr:

They decided to miss me in 2 areas & create a Dry Slot over me!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#394 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:33 am

Weather Dude wrote:And on top of all this.. another huge Day2 moderate
https://i.imgur.com/bIGc0Ue.gif

And it's mid March


I'm having a very bad feeling about this in April, May & June . . . :sick:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#395 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:45 am

I am 15 miles away from the moderate risk... HOLY CHRIST! I need to prepare for this now! This is going to be tough.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#396 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Mar 17, 2021 6:46 am

HIGH RISK FOR MISSISSIPI ON DAY ONE OUTLOOK!!!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#397 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:01 am

High Risk now includes Central Alabama

Image

Comparsion to the High Risk on the 2011 Super Outbreak

Image

NOTE: This comparsion for Today's potental Outbreak & the Super Outbreak of 2011 is meant for the LOCATION of the High Risk.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#398 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:30 am

IM UNDER A MODERATE RISK NOW
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#399 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:50 am

WHY ARE WE YELLING?

On a more serious note - as with any dangerous weather event, listen to your local WFOs/meteorologists, remain aware and with some method of receiving warnings, and be wary so you can stay safe. Today's gonna a nasty day for parts of the Southeast.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#400 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:53 am

NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:WHY ARE WE YELLING?

On a more serious note - as with any dangerous weather event, listen to your local WFOs/meteorologists, remain aware and with some method of receiving warnings, and be wary so you can stay safe. Today's gonna a nasty day for parts of the Southeast.

Will do. Glad to see you have a sense of humor. :lol: . I will be pulling an all nighter tonight for sure. I cannot miss THIS event for sure.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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