Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[ElectricStorm]

SPC mentions an upgrade to high if trends continue

[cycloneye]

Moderate Risk

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1371878373522173953

[InfernoFlameCat]

I expect at least one significant tornado here. Lets hope the cape keeps things from going wild.

[Iceresistance]

Moderate Risk

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1371878373522173953

JEEZ! There is even MORE room for a High Risk

[Iceresistance]

I expect at least one significant tornado here. Lets hope the cape keeps things from going wild.

You mean the Cap? Also, too many storms will limit the Tornado Threat . . .

[Iceresistance]

The SPC words for Wednesday are getting stronger by every update . . .

This one may send chills down your spine . . . (Did on me! )

A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours.

[ElectricStorm]

So apparently this is the largest moderate area on a Day 2 outlook since the 5 level system was introduced in late 2014

[InfernoFlameCat]

I meant cap sorry. I will certainly be monitoring this outbreak overnight.

[Iceresistance]

18z NAM Soundings between El Reno & Kingfisher, OK at +12 hours


OKC at +12 hours


Near Perry, OK at +15 hours


Tecumseh, OK at +15 hours


I'm suspecting that all but one sounding (The one near Tecumseh) is contaminated

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM Soundings between El Reno & Kingfisher, OK at +12 hours
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031618_NAM_012_35.84-97.87_severe_ml.png

OKC at +12 hours
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031618_NAM_012_35.58-97.57_severe_ml.png

Near Perry, OK at +15 hours
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031618_NAM_015_36.38-97.24_severe_ml.png

Tecumseh, OK at +15 hours
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031618_NAM_015_35.27-97.03_severe_ml.png

I'm suspecting that all but one sounding (The one near Tecumseh) is contaminated

I’m not overly familiar with how to tell if a sounding is contaminated, but I’ve seen people in the past determine it by looking at the omega values on the left. If they are anomalously sticking out to the right at the low levels, it may be contaminated. This would lead me to believe your first one is, but someone can correct me if I’m wrong

[ElectricStorm]

I've seen some things posted on other sites (not here, mostly social media, but I'm posting this in case some of the guests that come here saw any of these types of posts)...
1) People arguing over whether SPC will issue a high risk or not. While I personally do think that it will be a high, regardless of whether it is or not, people have to realize that it's going to be a huge event no matter what, even if it stays moderate. Prime example is 4/12/20... Stayed moderate but produced the third largest amount of tornadoes in a 24 hr period.
2) Comparing any setup to 4/27/11 should be illegal (kidding of course). This isn't going to be anything close to 4/27, and I wish people would stop comparing it to that... That being said however, it is still a very serious event and needs to be taken very seriously.
3) Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

[Iceresistance]

18z NAM Soundings between El Reno & Kingfisher, OK at +12 hours
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031618_NAM_012_35.84-97.87_severe_ml.png

OKC at +12 hours
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031618_NAM_012_35.58-97.57_severe_ml.png

Near Perry, OK at +15 hours
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031618_NAM_015_36.38-97.24_severe_ml.png

Tecumseh, OK at +15 hours
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031618_NAM_015_35.27-97.03_severe_ml.png

I'm suspecting that all but one sounding (The one near Tecumseh) is contaminated

I’m not overly familiar with how to tell if a sounding is contaminated, but I’ve seen people in the past determine it by looking at the omega values on the left. If they are anomalously sticking out to the right at the low levels, it may be contaminated. This would lead me to believe your first one is, but someone can correct me if I’m wrong

I've tagged the first one as "Likely Contaminated" before I posted them here, but I had to post it because of how crazy it was . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

Happy late birthday Weatherdude. Also if this is happening in March, what about April???

[Iceresistance]

Happy late birthday Weatherdude. Also if this is happening in March, what about April???

And May?

[ElectricStorm]

Happy late birthday Weatherdude. Also if this is happening in March, what about April???

Thanks man! Yeah if this pattern keeps up its might get crazy... I know the GFS has been showing an active pattern recently. I wonder if the upgraded version will show something similar

[Iceresistance]

Mesoscale Discussion #186

[InfernoFlameCat]

I have baby birds under my porch. I am worried about the storms that will hit and if the nest will hold. They just hatched.

[Iceresistance]

A storm has literally exploded NE of Matador, TX

[ElectricStorm]

Currently waiting in line in the drive thru for my pizza and just noticed a nasty hook on that tor warned storm in MS...

[Iceresistance]

Currently waiting in line in the drive thru for my pizza and just noticed a nasty hook on that tor warned storm in MS...

I see it too, it looks MEAN!