Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[InfernoFlameCat]

Tomorrows outlook... An interesting shape to say the least
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[ElectricStorm]

Well today is another example of why to take marginal risks seriously. Multiple tornado warnings and at least 1 confirmed tor south of Kansas City

[Brandon8181]

After observing, following, and documenting tornadoes and severe weather events over two decades I decided to bring it to social media. I've never done youtube or anything like that... Bare with me I'm very new on the video / picture and all that side. I'm really trying to improve it. I have some pretty good photos and video of this years first outbreak. Feel free to like and follow as I just started it.

Any help, tips, or suggestions would be greatly appreciated!

https://www.facebook.com/TexasStormSpotters

I'm looking ready for another possible chase coming up it looks like on Wednesday!

[ElectricStorm]

0z HRRR paints a scary picture for Wednesday. I'll be shocked if the next Day 2 is not a moderate at this point.

[Brandon8181]

0z HRRR paints a scary picture for Wednesday. I'll be shocked if the next Day 2 is not a moderate at this point.

I spent alot of time reviewing all of the latest data. I think we will have a moderate risk. I could be wrong, but I think East / Southeast AR / Northern MI will be a focus area.

[ElectricStorm]

First slight risk of the year for me


5% tor added for Central and western OK


This is going to be a nocturnal event, with those of us on the east side of the slight risk not getting anything until closer to sunrise on Wednesday.

[ElectricStorm]

Wednesday is about to get real...

[somethingfunny]

Wednesday is about to get real...
https://i.imgur.com/JYP86PC.gif

A potentially dangerous situation and with much of the threat in Alabama occuring overnight.

"During the evening and into the overnight hours, substantial
strengthening of the low-level southerlies across the central Gulf
Coast region is expected. While some diurnal decrease in
instability is expected, this should be more than offset by the
increasing low-level and deep-layer shear. As such, risk for
additional/significant tornadoes is anticipated to last through the
overnight hours, focused particularly across much of Alabama. Hail
and relatively widespread damaging winds will also be possible
across this same region."

[Iceresistance]

Wednesday is about to get real...
https://i.imgur.com/JYP86PC.gif

And The Moderate risk is still kinda broad, there is still room for a high risk day . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am under an enhanced risk (just barely) for day 3. I might need to stay up for this one because its going to be midnight once these storms start really ramping up for me.

[Iceresistance]

I'm finding scary soundings from the NAM Model

18z NAM

El Reno, OK


OKC


Tecumseh, OK (Near me! )


0z NAM

OKC ( )


Near Tecumseh, OK (Closer to the JCT of OK-9 & OK-102)


6z NAM

OKC ( )


Tecumseh, OK ( )

[InfernoFlameCat]

Bumping it to a high may be reasonable. We could see a serious outbreak.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Bumping it to a high may be reasonable. We could see a serious outbreak.

Iceresistance your area may be bumped to enhanced based on the higher tornado risk in central Oklahoma.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Iceresistance]

Bumping it to a high may be reasonable. We could see a serious outbreak.

Iceresistance your area may be bumped to enhanced based on the higher tornado risk in central Oklahoma.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Nope! The Broad Slight risk has been expanded, now includes Texarkana . . .


However, you may be right later on . . .

[Iceresistance]

HATCHED Hail zone in Southern Kansas, Western Oklahoma & Parts of Northern & Panhandle Texas . . .

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM soundings

OKC


DFW


Near Tecumseh, OK

[ElectricStorm]

The worst thing about today is that it's going to be a nocturnal event... So any tornadoes will likely occur when people are asleep. I could see a small chance at an enhanced risk today for hail, but I wouldn't say it's likely.
As for tomorrow I would say there is a decent chance at a high risk at this point. Maybe a moderate for Thursday as well. Absolutely crazy for March...

EDIT: Enhanced just added for NW OK

[Iceresistance]

There it is . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

Bumping it to a high may be reasonable. We could see a serious outbreak.

Iceresistance your area may be bumped to enhanced based on the higher tornado risk in central Oklahoma.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Nope! The Broad Slight risk has been expanded, now includes Texarkana . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day1otlk_1300bd21c8a0af37d265.gif

However, you may be right later on . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

Called it there is now a little enhanced area right where I predicted. I feel good dananananah.

[cheezyWXguy]

Iceresistance your area may be bumped to enhanced based on the higher tornado risk in central Oklahoma.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Nope! The Broad Slight risk has been expanded, now includes Texarkana . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day1otlk_1300bd21c8a0af37d265.gif

However, you may be right later on . . .
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

Called it there is now a little enhanced area right where I predicted. I feel good dananananah.

Thinking a second enhanced area could go up western areas of ntx if model trends continue. The environment depicted just ahead of the line looks favorable for a few spin ups, and may be more efficient at producing wind gusts than previously thought, since it looks more likely that the front will break the cap. Srh nearing 300 and cape exceeding 2500 is impressive for nighttime in March.

Tomorrow looks really bad in Dixie though, and an evening/overnight episode at that. Only real failure mode I can see is if the area gets too crowded with storms