Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[ElectricStorm]

This will be a big win for the GFS if Tuesday ends up verifying as it started to show it early last week even. SPC already mentioning more upgrades possible/likely for Wed so we're probably looking at at least a moderate for the south...

[Iceresistance]

This will be a big win for the GFS if Tuesday ends up verifying as it started to show it early last week even. SPC already mentioning more upgrades possible/likely for Wed so we're probably looking at at least a moderate for the south...

Where in the South? like I-40 South to the Red River?????

[ElectricStorm]

This will be a big win for the GFS if Tuesday ends up verifying as it started to show it early last week even. SPC already mentioning more upgrades possible/likely for Wed so we're probably looking at at least a moderate for the south...

Where in the South? like I-40 South to the Red River?????

Wednesday will be deep south/Dixie alley

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM Soundings

+66 hours near Tecumseh, OK


+69 Hours near Atoka, OK

[Iceresistance]

This will be a big win for the GFS if Tuesday ends up verifying as it started to show it early last week even. SPC already mentioning more upgrades possible/likely for Wed so we're probably looking at at least a moderate for the south...

Where in the South? like I-40 South to the Red River?????

Wednesday will be deep south/Dixie alley

I was talking about Tuesday, the Slight Risk is looking very broad in the Eastern Half of Oklahoma . . .

I'm worried that Wednesday is a High Risk Day . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Where in the South? like I-40 South to the Red River?????

Wednesday will be deep south/Dixie alley

I was talking about Tuesday, the Slight Risk is looking very broad in the Eastern Half of Oklahoma . . .

I'm worried that Wednesday is a High Risk Day . . .

SPC disco says the most favorable for tors as of right now is south of OK/KS border and north of S OK/N TX area. So we're both in that

[cheezyWXguy]

Where in the South? like I-40 South to the Red River?????

Wednesday will be deep south/Dixie alley

I was talking about Tuesday, the Slight Risk is looking very broad in the Eastern Half of Oklahoma . . .

I'm worried that Wednesday is a High Risk Day . . .

Very highly doubt it will be a high risk day. Enhanced or maybe moderate could be on the table though. The soundings you posted above are impressive, but not quite there for a clear sign of widespread outbreak. You would want to see that low level shear vector make a 90 degree angle with the bunkers right storm motion. The top one looks like about 60 and the bottom a little less.

As for Wednesday in the Deep South, I guess we will see how high probabilities get

[Iceresistance]

Wednesday will be deep south/Dixie alley

I was talking about Tuesday, the Slight Risk is looking very broad in the Eastern Half of Oklahoma . . .

I'm worried that Wednesday is a High Risk Day . . .

Very highly doubt it will be a high risk day. Enhanced or maybe moderate could be on the table though. The soundings you posted above are impressive, but not quite there for a clear sign of widespread outbreak. You would want to see that low level shear vector make a 90 degree angle with the bunkers right storm motion. The top one looks like about 60 and the bottom a little less.

As for Wednesday in the Deep South, I guess we will see how high probabilities get

Wednesday is the day that I'm worried about for a High Risk in Dixie Alley, Tuesday is maybe up to a Moderate across Central Oklahoma . . .

[Iceresistance]

18z NAM sounding at +63 Hours near Pawnee, OK



Compared to the one near Tecumseh, OK at the same hour . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thats quite the rotational shear. Lets hope it comes to fruition over a deserted field in your city or not at all.

[cheezyWXguy]

I was talking about Tuesday, the Slight Risk is looking very broad in the Eastern Half of Oklahoma . . .

I'm worried that Wednesday is a High Risk Day . . .

Very highly doubt it will be a high risk day. Enhanced or maybe moderate could be on the table though. The soundings you posted above are impressive, but not quite there for a clear sign of widespread outbreak. You would want to see that low level shear vector make a 90 degree angle with the bunkers right storm motion. The top one looks like about 60 and the bottom a little less.

As for Wednesday in the Deep South, I guess we will see how high probabilities get

Wednesday is the day that I'm worried about for a High Risk in Dixie Alley, Tuesday is maybe up to a Moderate across Central Oklahoma . . .

Ah, sorry about that, I misread.

[ElectricStorm]

There hasn't been a high risk in March since 3/2/12... so it's been a while. Not saying it's likely to get a high for Wednesday, but the potential is there, if the current trends continue. BIG IF at this point. Personally I'm expecting a moderate at the very minimum at some point for Wed, which I also find notable, since it would be the second moderate of the month already. The last time there were 2 moderates in March was 2017, and before that it was 2012. The last time there were more than 2 was in 2008, which had 4... Wednesday is 3/17, only about halfway through the month. That would mean there will still be quite some time to perhaps sneak a third one in there, especially if a pattern similar to the one the GFS is currently showing verifies... March 2021 is already one of the more active Marches in the last several years.

[Keldeo1997]

There hasn't been a high risk in March since 3/2/12... so it's been a while. Not saying it's likely to get a high for Wednesday, but the potential is there, if the current trends continue. BIG IF at this point. Personally I'm expecting a moderate at the very minimum at some point for Wed, which I also find notable, since it would be the second moderate of the month already. The last time there were 2 moderates in March was 2017, and before that it was 2012. The last time there were more than 2 was in 2008, which had 4... Wednesday is 3/17, only about halfway through the month. That would mean there will still be quite some time to perhaps sneak a third one in there, especially if a pattern similar to the one the GFS is currently showing verifies... March 2021 is already one of the more active Marches in the last several years.

Actually the last High risk was 5/20/19. If you don't remember I don't blame you. This event busted big time
.

[ElectricStorm]

There hasn't been a high risk in March since 3/2/12... so it's been a while. Not saying it's likely to get a high for Wednesday, but the potential is there, if the current trends continue. BIG IF at this point. Personally I'm expecting a moderate at the very minimum at some point for Wed, which I also find notable, since it would be the second moderate of the month already. The last time there were 2 moderates in March was 2017, and before that it was 2012. The last time there were more than 2 was in 2008, which had 4... Wednesday is 3/17, only about halfway through the month. That would mean there will still be quite some time to perhaps sneak a third one in there, especially if a pattern similar to the one the GFS is currently showing verifies... March 2021 is already one of the more active Marches in the last several years.

Actually the last High risk was 5/20/19. If you don't remember I don't blame you. This event busted big time https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190520_1630_prt.gif
.

I said the last high risk in March...

[Iceresistance]

There hasn't been a high risk in March since 3/2/12... so it's been a while. Not saying it's likely to get a high for Wednesday, but the potential is there, if the current trends continue. BIG IF at this point. Personally I'm expecting a moderate at the very minimum at some point for Wed, which I also find notable, since it would be the second moderate of the month already. The last time there were 2 moderates in March was 2017, and before that it was 2012. The last time there were more than 2 was in 2008, which had 4... Wednesday is 3/17, only about halfway through the month. That would mean there will still be quite some time to perhaps sneak a third one in there, especially if a pattern similar to the one the GFS is currently showing verifies... March 2021 is already one of the more active Marches in the last several years.

Actually the last High risk was 5/20/19. If you don't remember I don't blame you. This event busted big time https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day1otlk_20190520_1630_prt.gif
.

Oh no, I remember that day . . .

[Iceresistance]

6z NAM soundings . . .

Hollis, OK


Tecumseh, OK


NW Alabama

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM Sounding at +42 hours over Tecumseh, OK

[Iceresistance]

The Happy, TX Wedge has been rated an EF2 so far . . .

[ElectricStorm]

The Happy, TX Wedge has been rated an EF2 so far . . .

I doubt they go any higher than that. At least based on what I've seen so far.

[ElectricStorm]

Someone had some fun making that Day 2 outlook