Texas Winter 2020-2021

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS-Para
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021021306.prateptype_cat.us_sc8c6c57dfcec5ad8a.gif

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs_para-2021021312.snku_024h.us_sc.gif

Grand Total
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_acc.us_sc113075b14007848b.png
(Also, nasty dry slot over DFW, hopefully not the case)

Lol that dry slot on the accumulations map looks absurd. It doesn’t even jive with the precipitation depiction

[Shoshana]

I empathize with peoples anxiety about the dry slot. That said it’s not a freaking competition. People bragging about how they got 17” and snow starved north Texas got 4” basically just won an atmospheric lotto. It’s not like they beat me in chess or poker. I’ll be pleased with my 4” and ignore the braggarts. No matter how much snow you get, someone else is going to get more. I’m trying to come up with more cliches but drawing a blank. (See what I did there?)

I'm hoping we break 2" tomorrow by midday. That way all of the cynicism can be cut down some for Tues-Weds system. Get it out of the way early.

A freakin-men. My anxiety today is way too high. Getting accumulation early means I care less about the second storm because it matters less for my backyard getting a blanket of white as it already happened.

At this point I figure we will get something. More concerned with the extreme cold and our pipes now

[iorange55]

As others have said, way too early to worry about any potential dry slots. Additionally, I think models are underestimating precip, given that it won’t take much to produce light snow, as we’ve seen the past couple days.

And there are at least two storms. So let’s say you *only* get 3 or 4 inches on Sunday/Monday, you may get another 4 inches on Tuesday/Wednesday.

That’s eight inches of snow! On the ground for an entire week, and that’s on the low end. So worst case, you get 5 to 8 inches of snow.

Doesn’t sound bad at all. Think of me, out here waking up to the sun and 70 degrees all the time. Since moving three years ago, I’ve heard thunder twice. JUST TWICE! Last year, we went like seven months without seeing anything more than a drizzle. zzzzz

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure why the HRRR depicts so much freezing rain, as the warm nose barely gets to 0 or falls just shy. It would be a snow/sleet at the least if taken literally, and probably will end up being all snow since the models have been overestimating temps

[MississippiWx]

12z UKMET
NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, 15:1 & 20:1 Ratios are more pronouced in Oklahoma

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sn10_acc.us_sc8e81201ddc357cb4.png


Also, Houston gets 8-10 inches of snow!

Believe the UKMET doesn’t account for sleet/Ice in its accumulation. We aren’t supposed to see a single flake here in South Mississippi but the UK is showing us with 4 inches. That will more than likely be a nice .25-.50 of freezing rain. Could get a little dicey.

[Ntxw]

12z UKMET
NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, 15:1 & 20:1 Ratios are more pronouced in Oklahoma

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sn10_acc.us_sc8e81201ddc357cb4.png


Also, Houston gets 8-10 inches of snow!

Believe the UKMET doesn’t account for sleet/Ice in its accumulation. We aren’t supposed to see a single flake here in South Mississippi but the UK is showing us with 4 inches. That will more than likely be a nice .25-.50 of freezing rain. Could get a little dicey.

The 10:1 Ukmet pivotal maps do not depict what kind of frozen it is. The other day it was 2-4" of "snow" for central Texas and all of that was sleet and freezing rain.

[Ntxw]

Not sure why the HRRR depicts so much freezing rain, as the warm nose barely gets to 0 or falls just shy. It would be a snow/sleet at the least if taken literally, and probably will end up being all snow since the models have been overestimating temps

Column is below freezing the entire way. Not sure why but this air mass has given them all kinds of issues with temps top to bottom.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Sunny and nice here. It’s a balmy 18°with a windchill of 1°

[rwfromkansas]

Water main break in Alliance area of north FW. Going to hear a lot of this....

[MississippiWx]

12z UKMET
NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, 15:1 & 20:1 Ratios are more pronouced in Oklahoma

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sn10_acc.us_sc8e81201ddc357cb4.png

Exactly. Feel like that’s what will happen in Houston, although they could see snow on the back end.


Also, Houston gets 8-10 inches of snow!

Believe the UKMET doesn’t account for sleet/Ice in its accumulation. We aren’t supposed to see a single flake here in South Mississippi but the UK is showing us with 4 inches. That will more than likely be a nice .25-.50 of freezing rain. Could get a little dicey.

The 10:1 Ukmet pivotal maps do not depict what kind of frozen it is. The other day it was 2-4" of "snow" for central Texas and all of that was sleet and freezing rain.

Still feel like Dallas will see quite a bit of snow. Models underestimate snow production in this kind of airmass. Someone could see a foot. With how cold y’all have been and will be during snowfall, it will not melt any.

[HockeyTx82]

https://youtu.be/UxVivkXUfdU

When the lady walks in, instead of Police are here imagine she says latest model run are in........

Just spin the whole skit as if they are talking about this upcoming snowstorm.

If I get bored enough maybe I'll dub over them talking weather models........

[bevolon]

Sun popped out here for a minute! I about had a coronary!! Saw my snow chances melt away before it even got here!!
Totally kidding about the coronary but, was wondering what a good weather station for the backyard would be?

[Brent]

WPC Prob >8" mocks the dry slot! Also, the 12z HREF continues to support the 4 - 6" area wide snowfall for a large portion of Texas, so I wouldn't expect many changes in the afternoon packages, unless some offices up totals based ratio and/or not losing as much qpf to freezing rain/sleet.

https://i.ibb.co/sv8B0Wz/8in72-Prob.png

What an interesting area for that zone

[Yukon Cornelius]

Sun popped out here for a minute! I about had a coronary!! Saw my snow chances melt away before it even got here!!
Totally kidding about the coronary but, was wondering what a good weather station for the backyard would be?

I have an Ambient Weather WS-2000 and love it. It’s extremely accurate.

[orangeblood]

WPC Prob >8" mocks the dry slot! Also, the 12z HREF continues to support the 4 - 6" area wide snowfall for a large portion of Texas, so I wouldn't expect many changes in the afternoon packages, unless some offices up totals based ratio and/or not losing as much qpf to freezing rain/sleet.

https://i.ibb.co/sv8B0Wz/8in72-Prob.png

IMO This range is where WPC is the go to....the globals were great for finding the setup but it’s time to start following the pros/instead of grasping one model or the other. It’s a blend game at this point until HRRR hourly/actual radar returns

Dry Slot?

[South Texas Storms]

My call that I'm starting to gain some more confidence in is 3-6 inches in DFW, 2-4 inches for SA/Austin, and 1-2 inches for Houston. While still low confidence (as it always is forecasting winter precipitation events in TX), it is increasing.

[Texas Snowman]

As much as I love snow—and that’s a lot—I’m more interested in how extreme the cold gets. I’d like to see if we can flirt with the all-time record lows (locally and statewide), if we can approach the 295 hour sub freezing mark set back in 1983 (in Dallas and Grayson County), etc.

Those seem like benchmarks that might become increasingly difficult to achieve in the future.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Mean Snowfall trended north again . . .

11-13 inches in Central Oklahoma
6-13 inches in DFW

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, Oklahoma ranges from 15:1 Ratios to 25:1 Ratios


Ensemble Snow totals

[rwfromkansas]

Sun popped out here for a minute! I about had a coronary!! Saw my snow chances melt away before it even got here!!
Totally kidding about the coronary but, was wondering what a good weather station for the backyard would be?

I have an Ambient Weather WS-2000 and love it. It’s extremely accurate.

I love my Ambient 1400. Awesome to view data from anywhere.

[HockeyTx82]

12z GEFS Mean Snowfall trended north again . . .

11-13 inches in Central Oklahoma
6-13 inches in DFW

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, Oklahoma ranges from 15:1 Ratios to 25:1 Ratios
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_meansnacc_17479d96e05cd35ab72.png

Ensemble Snow totals
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_168ca16caba240768c2.png

Ok so we have people posting and talking dry slot then you post these. What's going on? What do we believe? Any pro mets that would mind explaining please, and thank you ahead of time.