Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snowman]

CMC snow hole over the Arklatex.

https://i.imgur.com/O5BMeF1.png

Live look at Storm2K right now (on every new model run):

“Yay, my backyard is going to get buried! Buried, I tell you. Texas is the new Montana! Isn’t life a beautiful thing?”

“Doggone it, I’m only going to get 3-inches! If only I lived in _________, they have real winters. Why are the weather overlords against me?!?”

“Pffffttt. Only 2-inches? Who cares how cold it gets, I want snow! That’s it, I’m done. Winter cancelled, bring on spring.”

“So your model is saying ________? Oh yeah, well my model is saying _________! Take that!”

“Ever since we’ve had (less planes landing at DFW, Cowboys not winning a Super Bowl, the Aggies in the SEC, etc.), we can’t get rid of that cursed dry slot! I’m throwing in the towel, Wxman57 won again!”

“Why does Wxman57 always win?”

“The snowless doughnut hole over DFW lives again!”

[bubba hotep]

Models seem to be juicing up the next system but are showing a lot of sleet for portions of DFW and NE Texas. However, soundings look good and I would think that would be all snow.

[cheezyWXguy]

So I’m confused. If the storm shifts further south, does that move the snow in Oklahoma down to Texas, or does everybody north of setx lose out?

[Ntxw]

To close this potential snow hole we must fly airplanes over it repeatedly.

I don't think models account for that! DFW airport is guaranteed +0.5" from the arrivals and departures.



Just about every county in the Southern Plains region is covered in some kind of winter watch/warning/advisory No question from the map below the Great Plains is experiencing severe cold.

[bubba hotep]

CMC snow hole over the Arklatex.

https://i.imgur.com/O5BMeF1.png

Live look at Storm2K right now (on every new model run):

“Yay, my backyard is going to get buried! Buried, I tell you. Texas is the new Montana! Isn’t life a beautiful thing?”

“Doggone it, I’m only going to get 3-inches! If only I lived in _________, they have real winters. Why are the weather overlords against me?!?”

“Pffffttt. Only 2-inches? Who cares how cold it gets, I want snow! That’s it, I’m done. Winter cancelled, bring on spring.”

“So your model is saying ________? Oh yeah, well my model is saying _________! Take that!”

“Ever since we’ve had (less planes landing at DFW, Cowboys not winning a Super Bowl, the Aggies in the SEC, etc.), we can’t get rid of that cursed dry slot! I’m throwing in the towel, Wxman57 won again!”

“Why does Wxman57 always win?”

“The snowless doughnut hole over DFW lives again!”

Obviously, it is natural for people to have an IMBY view of things and when a sub covers such a large geographical area there are going to be lots of different hot takes. What is the point of looking at models if people aren't going to comment on them? Are not supposed to acknowledge model trends? Are we just supposed to follow every post with, "yea snow!" with no analysis?

[Captmorg70]

What are you talking about? Split?

QPF max band NW and SE of DFW with a big drop off in between, the drop off varies by model but showing up pretty much across all models now.

So when do we start the Spring thread?

Sorry if others already responded, but we’re still looking fine in our neck of the woods. In fact, the GFS our spot a small 24” spot.

But I don’t expect that much...

[DeltaV]

That dry slot seems so narrow, and we're still over 24 hrs away from the worst of it, I'm not too worried as of now.

[txtwister78]

[Ntxw]

CMC snow hole over the Arklatex.

https://i.imgur.com/O5BMeF1.png

Live look at Storm2K right now (on every new model run):

“Yay, my backyard is going to get buried! Buried, I tell you. Texas is the new Montana! Isn’t life a beautiful thing?”

“Doggone it, I’m only going to get 3-inches! If only I lived in _________, they have real winters. Why are the weather overlords against me?!?”

“Pffffttt. Only 2-inches? Who cares how cold it gets, I want snow! That’s it, I’m done. Winter cancelled, bring on spring.”

“So your model is saying ________? Oh yeah, well my model is saying _________! Take that!”

“Ever since we’ve had (less planes landing at DFW, Cowboys not winning a Super Bowl, the Aggies in the SEC, etc.), we can’t get rid of that cursed dry slot! I’m throwing in the towel, Wxman57 won again!”

“Why does Wxman57 always win?”

“The snowless doughnut hole over DFW lives again!”

Obviously, it is natural for people to have an IMBY view of things and when a sub covers such a large geographical area there are going to be lots of different hot takes. What is the point of looking at models if people aren't going to comment on them? Are not supposed to acknowledge model trends? Are we just supposed to follow every post with, "yea snow!" with no analysis?

I think you make a fair and valid point. But it also has to be under context. It was one thing when we are 5+ days out speculation but there is currently warnings issued for a wide area of the region and a fairly confident forecast. We're never going to know if one side of town gets 3" while the other side gets crushed with 12" until it happens. Analysis is great! There is a clear 'lesser' amount area/real estate as with any storm, convective, duration all at play. But it's not limited to DFW (amplified due to the skepticism), it varies run to run and model to model at different locations.

[Texas Snowman]

CMC snow hole over the Arklatex.

https://i.imgur.com/O5BMeF1.png

Live look at Storm2K right now (on every new model run):

“Yay, my backyard is going to get buried! Buried, I tell you. Texas is the new Montana! Isn’t life a beautiful thing?”

“Doggone it, I’m only going to get 3-inches! If only I lived in _________, they have real winters. Why are the weather overlords against me?!?”

“Pffffttt. Only 2-inches? Who cares how cold it gets, I want snow! That’s it, I’m done. Winter cancelled, bring on spring.”

“So your model is saying ________? Oh yeah, well my model is saying _________! Take that!”

“Ever since we’ve had (less planes landing at DFW, Cowboys not winning a Super Bowl, the Aggies in the SEC, etc.), we can’t get rid of that cursed dry slot! I’m throwing in the towel, Wxman57 won again!”

“Why does Wxman57 always win?”

“The snowless doughnut hole over DFW lives again!”

Obviously, it is natural for people to have an IMBY view of things and when a sub covers such a large geographical area there are going to be lots of different hot takes. What is the point of looking at models if people aren't going to comment on them? Are not supposed to acknowledge model trends? Are we just supposed to follow every post with, "yea snow!" with no analysis?

I think my intent wasn’t clear enough. I meant no harm or foul. Watching the comments and reactions happening by the hour on this thread is almost as much fun right now (to me, anyway) as trying to figure out what the weather is going to do in anyone’s backyard. The reactions are all over the place (including mine!).

[Quixotic]

I empathize with peoples anxiety about the dry slot. That said it’s not a freaking competition. People bragging about how they got 17” and snow starved north Texas got 4” basically just won an atmospheric lotto. It’s not like they beat me in chess or poker. I’ll be pleased with my 4” and ignore the braggarts. No matter how much snow you get, someone else is going to get more. I’m trying to come up with more cliches but drawing a blank. (See what I did there?)

[Ntxw]

I empathize with peoples anxiety about the dry slot. That said it’s not a freaking competition. People bragging about how they got 17” and snow starved north Texas got 4” basically just won an atmospheric lotto. It’s not like they beat me in chess or poker. I’ll be pleased with my 4” and ignore the braggarts. No matter how much snow you get, someone else is going to get more. I’m trying to come up with more cliches but drawing a blank. (See what I did there?)

I'm hoping we break 2" tomorrow by midday. That way all of the cynicism can be cut down some for Tues-Weds system. Get it out of the way early.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS-Para


24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall


Grand Total

(Also, nasty dry slot over DFW, hopefully not the case)

[CaptinCrunch]

Guy's there are 2 systems, and severe cold so it doesn't matter how much falls it is not going anywhere soon. 4"-6" is still the best bet across DFW with system #1, and another 3"-5" across DFW with system #2. We are going to have a full week of frozen precip on the ground and crazy cold temps so just relax and enjoy your FREE vacation.

[Ntxw]

Guy's there are 2 systems, and severe cold so it doesn't matter how much falls it is not going anywhere soon. 4"-6" is still the best bet across DFW with system #1, and another 3"-5" across DFW with system #2. We are going to have a full week of frozen precip on the ground and crazy cold temps so just relax and enjoy your FREE vacation.

Think about that! Snow that doesn't melt a few hours later! Then put more snow on top of that. I wonder what snow depth record is for a period? Probably '64, '78, or '10.

[Iceresistance]

12z UKMET
NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, 15:1 & 20:1 Ratios are more pronouced in Oklahoma




Also, Houston gets 8-10 inches of snow!

[bubba hotep]

WPC Prob >8" mocks the dry slot! Also, the 12z HREF continues to support the 4 - 6" area wide snowfall for a large portion of Texas, so I wouldn't expect many changes in the afternoon packages, unless some offices up totals based ratio and/or not losing as much qpf to freezing rain/sleet.

[rwfromkansas]

I empathize with peoples anxiety about the dry slot. That said it’s not a freaking competition. People bragging about how they got 17” and snow starved north Texas got 4” basically just won an atmospheric lotto. It’s not like they beat me in chess or poker. I’ll be pleased with my 4” and ignore the braggarts. No matter how much snow you get, someone else is going to get more. I’m trying to come up with more cliches but drawing a blank. (See what I did there?)

I'm hoping we break 2" tomorrow by midday. That way all of the cynicism can be cut down some for Tues-Weds system. Get it out of the way early.

A freakin-men. My anxiety today is way too high. Getting accumulation early means I care less about the second storm because it matters less for my backyard getting a blanket of white as it already happened.

[bubba hotep]

Live look at Storm2K right now (on every new model run):

“Yay, my backyard is going to get buried! Buried, I tell you. Texas is the new Montana! Isn’t life a beautiful thing?”

“Doggone it, I’m only going to get 3-inches! If only I lived in _________, they have real winters. Why are the weather overlords against me?!?”

“Pffffttt. Only 2-inches? Who cares how cold it gets, I want snow! That’s it, I’m done. Winter cancelled, bring on spring.”

“So your model is saying ________? Oh yeah, well my model is saying _________! Take that!”

“Ever since we’ve had (less planes landing at DFW, Cowboys not winning a Super Bowl, the Aggies in the SEC, etc.), we can’t get rid of that cursed dry slot! I’m throwing in the towel, Wxman57 won again!”

“Why does Wxman57 always win?”

“The snowless doughnut hole over DFW lives again!”

Obviously, it is natural for people to have an IMBY view of things and when a sub covers such a large geographical area there are going to be lots of different hot takes. What is the point of looking at models if people aren't going to comment on them? Are not supposed to acknowledge model trends? Are we just supposed to follow every post with, "yea snow!" with no analysis?

I think my intent wasn’t clear enough. I meant no harm or foul. Watching the comments and reactions happening by the hour on this thread is almost as much fun right now (to me, anyway) as trying to figure out what the weather is going to do in anyone’s backyard. The reactions are all over the place (including mine!).

Cool. Also, a bit of hyperbola and snow weenie posting makes thing more interesting. Back when Eastern Weather .com was the big board the competition/trolling b/w the DC sub, Philly sub, NYC sub, was insane. It made things a lot of fun but kept the mods busy lol

[Texas Snowman]

12z UKMET
NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, 15:1 & 20:1 Ratios are more pronouced in Oklahoma

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sn10_acc.us_sc8e81201ddc357cb4.png


Also, Houston gets 8-10 inches of snow!

Wxman57 might not ever come back from Melbourne if that happens.

He does say that he likes snow though, so it’s a bummer he might miss that!