Winter like Temps/Pirecip on the way

[RNS]

BTW...for the negative phase sof those indicies (EPO/WPO) just picture the reverse of what you see (i dont have any graphics showing the negative phases of those teleconnections)

[LMolineux]

Ok i did make a Referance to that alot earlier but i was holding it out because i wasnt sure of it being a major factor but now it is looking to be so. And we all know what happened that winter. The Huge Blizzard of 96 here in the MA and NE states.

[RNS]

now dont get too carried away just yet but...considering as how we have a similar (though not exact) match to 1995/96 doesent mean that the wx pattern will respond accordingly in the exact sense 9or in regard to the blizzard). however seeing as how we have a similar NPAC to 1995/96 and a similar ENSO to 76/77 and 77/78 (these are not analogs at this point though...) where the warmest SSTA were located in the western pacific Nino regions. and the E QBO (at least initially) is similar to 95/96.

theres plenty of argument for big storms and severe cold. however lets make sure that we rid ourselvs of these X-class flares and the overall high activity before we go full force into a forecast for a brutal winter like 77/78 or 76/77 (which attm...im sorry...is not my call). 1995/96 like patterns are slightly more likely...however as far as the best match right now to the pattern evolution may be a happy meadium between 93/94 and 79/80. of course the means by which we get there are somewhat different (climate factors wise).

so basically...while the patterns may be similar...we will not get there the same way.

[LMolineux]

I Agree fully and noticed this. But i am seing this could lead to a later 95/96 setup like give or take some time in there but a facor of the Analog which imo i do not believe ina t all but have some basis of seing it and understanding it. But seriously the Analogs do have a sence of a learning tool to practice off of.

[RNS]

there can be cases where one has a similar dominating pattern with a completely different factor configuration as what is considered normal to that pattern. that is to say we can get la Nina like SE ridging in El nino winters...the pattern is similar however the way in which we got to that pattern is different.

[LMolineux]

Well we came off the longest 12 month pattern i have ever seen in my life to be honest with you. But yes we got there quickly we broke our drought quickly and it felt so great to break it.