Texas Winter 2020-2021

[SouthernMet]

I strongly feel like all the model guidance we have now (still early as system hasn’t moved ashore) is bugged when it comes to temps, which has significant impacts on accumulation amounts etc. With temps that cold aloft, and that much snow falling (12-24 hour period) it’s going to drag that cold air down to the surface, allowing cold air advection to take place keeping us around 32, or below for the entire event. Especially after sundown. (Mid to upper 20’s where snow is heaviest) We have seen this many times with previous events most notably feb 2010.

@orangeblood @Ntxw thoughts?

[SouthernMet]

FWIW latest RGEM just came in and increased accumulations for north & central tx.
3-5” North of I-20 to the red river. 9-10” for DFW, and a foot of snow accumulation just south of I-20, along and south of the metroplex down to Waco. Even if it’s slightly overdoing QPF, this will be the most significant Winter Storm in 11 years for our region.

Edit - It also has temps running 31-33 in DFW from 7am-7pm, dropping fast after 7pm and bottoming out around 23 in Fort Worth Monday morning. This looks plausible if the current setup verifies.

[TXdaddy217]

https://weather.com/weather/alerts/loca ... 4d35f7c41d

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[gpsnowman]

https://weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/Abilene+TX?canonicalCityId=87177f30a882494deb5be425402bd0009558bb657ccfeb9122f6e74d35f7c41d

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And so it begins. Starting out west and eventually moving east!!!

[TXdaddy217]

https://weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/Abilene+TX?canonicalCityId=87177f30a882494deb5be425402bd0009558bb657ccfeb9122f6e74d35f7c41d

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And so it begins. Starting out west and eventually moving east!!!

Hope it does for everyone. This could be the one we have all been waiting for.

[Ralph's Weather]

Texans In the NE quad of the state (I-35 east and I-10 north) have been waiting 11 years for a classic winter Gulf low feeding moisture into an Arctic air mass.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 says 1-2" for DFW and no road issues.

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Anything in the long range?

[orangeblood]

Fox 4 says 1-2" for DFW and no road issues.

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Anything in the long range?

Lol if Fox 4 says it, lock it in...no reason to analyze further

I do agree that roads shouldn’t be much of an issue at all but 1-2 inches is way too conservative looking at QPF amounts

[gpsnowman]

Fox 4 says 1-2" for DFW and no road issues.

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Anything in the long range?

Expect those to go up. Yesterday it was a chance for a wintry mix and today we have accumulations. With TV forecasts it is a gradual process, always with a side of caution. If you recall in Feb 2010 TV mets were playing catch-up all day with what was happening in real time. They can't just say "10 inches on Sunday", it has to be a slow build up close to the actual event. Not saying we get 10 inches but the mets have to be cautious in conjunction with the NWS.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 says 1-2" for DFW and no road issues.

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Anything in the long range?

Expect those to go up. Yesterday it was a chance for a wintry mix and today we have accumulations. With TV forecasts it is a gradual process, always with a side of caution. If you recall in Feb 2010 TV mets were playing catch-up all day with what was happening in real time. They can't just say "10 inches on Sunday", it has to be a slow build up close to the actual event. Not saying we get 10 inches but the mets have to be cautious in conjunction with the NWS.

I was being sarcastic, but I appreciate the response. I'm not on the ledge.

[WacoWx]

TWC showing 1-2” immediately west, south, and east of both Terrant and Dallas counties. Nothing for the metro due to temps.

[EnnisTx]

Fox 4 says 1-2" for DFW and no road issues.

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Anything in the long range?

Expect those to go up. Yesterday it was a chance for a wintry mix and today we have accumulations. With TV forecasts it is a gradual process, always with a side of caution. If you recall in Feb 2010 TV mets were playing catch-up all day with what was happening in real time. They can't just say "10 inches on Sunday", it has to be a slow build up close to the actual event. Not saying we get 10 inches but the mets have to be cautious in conjunction with the NWS.

I was being sarcastic, but I appreciate the response. I'm not on the ledge.

That's what I always tell my wife.

[EnnisTx]

TWC showing 1-2” immediately west, south, and east of both Terrant and Dallas counties. Nothing for the metro due to temps.

Lol. Not happening. Temps will be fine.

[Portastorm]

As someone who has been burned for decades now by “sure thing” model snowstorms, I’m trying one last time to inject a little balance into what has become an echo chamber for you DFW folks. This event (meaning ample snowfall for the Metroplex) is far from certain!

The setup is not simple. It’s complex. We’ll be dealing with an upper level low not fully sampled yet by US weather forecasting tools and the possibility of a coastal trough/low developing. What I have seen happen MANY times in Texas is that the upper low shears out as it crosses the state and transfers energy to the coastal trough/low. What happens then? QPF values further north get robbed of moisture and dreams and visions of multi-inch Metroplex snowfall are crushed. Hell, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that all we get in Austin is cold rain, the heavy snow falls in West Texas and areas of north central and north Texas see minimal amounts of snow.

For the sake of you snow-starved Metroplexers, I hope you get buried with snow! But I worry about y’all getting so certain of an outcome which I think is far from certain. There’s nothing worse than being certain that Lucy won’t pull the football THIS TIME and then finding yourself on your backside because she did it again. For your mental health sake please try and temper those expectations, friends.

[Texas Snow]

Yes I think it’s good to have a counterpoint when groupthink becomes common. Especially when their is still model disagreement we can’t just dismiss the others.

Thanks for being WxMan57 today

[utweather]

TWC showing 1-2” immediately west, south, and east of both Terrant and Dallas counties. Nothing for the metro due to temps.

Lol. Not happening. Temps will be fine.

I always find the temps to be the main problem across the eastern half of the state.

Arctic air too dry.
Canadian too warm unless there is a good snow pack origin. I havent seen that in a long time.

[EnnisTx]

As someone who has been burned for decades now by “sure thing” model snowstorms, I’m trying one last time to inject a little balance into what has become an echo chamber for you DFW folks. This event (meaning ample snowfall for the Metroplex) is far from certain!

The setup is not simple. It’s complex. We’ll be dealing with an upper level low not fully sampled yet by US weather forecasting tools and the possibility of a coastal trough/low developing. What I have seen happen MANY times in Texas is that the upper low shears out as it crosses the state and transfers energy to the coastal trough/low. What happens then? QPF values further north get robbed of moisture and dreams and visions of multi-inch Metroplex snowfall are crushed. Hell, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that all we get in Austin is cold rain, the heavy snow falls in West Texas and areas of north central and north Texas see minimal amounts of snow.

For the sake of you snow-starved Metroplexers, I hope you get buried with snow! But I worry about y’all getting so certain of an outcome which I think is far from certain. There’s nothing worse than being certain that Lucy won’t pull the football THIS TIME and then finding yourself on your backside because she did it again. For your mental health sake please try and temper those expectations, friends.

They really need to add a "dislike" button to S2k.

[WacoWx]

Gonna have to agree with Porta, unfortunately. Too many sources citing either nothing or a dusting in DFW for me to jump on board. The sled will not be getting dusted off yet.

Been burned too many times.

[EnnisTx]

Yes I think it’s good to have a counterpoint when groupthink becomes common. Especially when their is still model disagreement we can’t just dismiss the others.

Thanks for being WxMan57 today

He's right, but my brain doesn't want to hear it. Please don't mention the name of the one who should not be mentioned.

[Texas Snow]

Far from calling it a bonanza or a bust, the NWS is waiting for High Res like the rest of us.

Fortunately that comes into range today.

As precipitation chances spread across the region Sunday, thermal
profiles suggest the p-type may initially fall as a cold rain as
temperatures near the surface remain above freezing. However,
additional cooling at the surface should result in an eventual
transition to snow across parts of the region. We expect more
clarity over the next day or so in regards to the rain/snow
transition line as high resolution data is able to capture this
event.

Overall confidence is increasing on accumulating snowfall across
North and Central Texas, but the exact amounts remain uncertain.
NBM probabilistic products indicate the best potential for amounts
> 1-2 snow accumulations are along and west of a Gainesville to
Copperas Cove line, while GEFS and ECMWF ensemble data depict
higher probabilities of snow accumulations exceeding 1 inch across
most of North and Central Texas. For amounts higher than 2-4,
the best chance remains confined to areas along and west of US
Highway 281. Keep in mind though...any deviations to the track of
the upper low would result in adjustments to the forecast,
including the rain/snow transition line, snowfall totals and
impacts.