Texas Winter 2020-2021

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah, I heard it has a bit of a warm bias here, so that's good. That Canadian is epic.

[bubba hotep]

GFS-P continues to hold steady with a significant band of snow from the Southern Panhandle down through North Central Texas and into N. Louisiana. It has been performing really well the last couple of weeks.

[Cerlin]

GFS-P continues to hold steady with a significant band of snow from the Southern Panhandle down through North Central Texas and into N. Louisiana. It has been performing really well the last couple of weeks.

Is the GFS-P supposed to replace the current GFS? It seems like it’s way more accurate.

[Ntxw]

In truth it's becoming pretty clear what the track of this the upper vorticity will be as nearly all guidance show more less of the same. Dig down into New Mexico and go neutral along I-20 in west Texas to North Texas to Northern Louisiana give or take 50-100m north or south.

For C and parts of SE Texas you want the upper levels to trend colder. For North Texas you want slightly north wobbles to bring the QPF, upper temps are not an issue here. Some of the short range guidance keeps DFW pretty close to 0c at 850s between now and the onset of the system so it will easily snow if there is good qpf, which short range guidance tends to handle better.

[Lagreeneyes03]

So...does North-o-plex DFW metro get screwed??

[Cerlin]

So...does DFW metro get screwed??

Hard to know yet, but it looks like some of the best potential we’ve had in years.

[Lagreeneyes03]

So...does DFW metro get screwed??

Hard to know yet, but it looks like some of the best potential we’ve had in years.

I mean like snow hole, 1/2 inch..nada...while Johnson Co gets 3 to 4

[Ntxw]

So...does DFW metro get screwed??

Hard to know yet, but it looks like some of the best potential we’ve had in years.

If you're talking about 1-3" of snow at least then right now you'd say we're all sitting in a pretty good spot anyone from the Red River to Austin.

Now if you're talking big hit blockbuster 4, 5, 10" of snow the area between I-20 and Austin (really Hillsboro-Waco and east) has the highest probability if taking all guidance in a statistical view where models have the most qpf. Convection and where thunderstorms form can shift that north or south and is best viewed inside 48 hours.

Despite the doubts, which is fairly just, odds are more likely it will snow than not. How much is now the center of discussion.

[Brent]

12z euro

[EnnisTx]

12z euro

https://i.ibb.co/HHH6f2B/sn10-acc-us-sc-21.png

I'm betting on 50 miles further North than that. Looks great either way!

[jaguars_22]

I’m guessing Victoria won’t see anything special? Darn

[Brent]

12z euro

https://i.ibb.co/HHH6f2B/sn10-acc-us-sc-21.png

I'm betting on 50 miles further North than that. Looks great either way!

Yup I'm still feeling great being north of the bullseye lol

[bubba hotep]

12z euro

https://i.ibb.co/HHH6f2B/sn10-acc-us-sc-21.png

It looks like the Euro & GFS-P are locked in and now we are just seeing variations of the solution as run-to-run wrinkles work through the system.

Still need to wait on our system to get onshore and fully sampled. I know there is debate as to if it's the extra sampling or reduction in lead time that actually makes the difference but that should be the last chance for significant changes. Then it will start coming down to mesoscale features and the hi-res models.

[EnnisTx]

12z euro

https://i.ibb.co/HHH6f2B/sn10-acc-us-sc-21.png

I'm betting on 50 miles further North than that. Looks great either way!

Yup I'm still feeling great being north of the bullseye lol

Yes sir! I'm just South of 20 so hoping for a nice surprise.

[Ntxw]

12z euro

https://i.ibb.co/HHH6f2B/sn10-acc-us-sc-21.png

It looks like the Euro & GFS-P are locked in and now we are just seeing variations of the solution as run-to-run wrinkles work through the system.

Still need to wait on our system to get onshore and fully sampled. I know there is debate as to if it's the extra sampling or reduction in lead time that actually makes the difference but that should be the last chance for significant changes. Then it will start coming down to mesoscale features and the hi-res models.

Surface temps will be important too. It's pretty good agreement (tossing the outlier GFS bias) 850s in North Texas is very cold compared to further south. A few degrees cold at the surface would cut the sleet transition down and go to heavier snow earlier.

[Texas Snow]

12z euro

https://i.ibb.co/HHH6f2B/sn10-acc-us-sc-21.png

I'm betting on 50 miles further North than that. Looks great either way!

Yup I'm still feeling great being north of the bullseye lol

What data is leading you two to think this?

[Cerlin]

I'm betting on 50 miles further North than that. Looks great either way!

Yup I'm still feeling great being north of the bullseye lol

What data is leading you two to think this?

Desperation and hope

But also the ensemble trends all look fantastic so I don’t blame anyone for being optimistic.

[Ntxw]

I'm betting on 50 miles further North than that. Looks great either way!

Yup I'm still feeling great being north of the bullseye lol

What data is leading you two to think this?

All of the models have been moving negative tilt crossing I-20. And guidance continues to slow it down and taking this turn. North Texas has room for error, while the areas to the south may be benefiting from high qpf, this trend does not leave them with a lot of space.

The system has been trending for the past two days to make that turn for a reason, the interaction upstream is becoming more evident.

[Brent]

Yup I'm still feeling great being north of the bullseye lol

What data is leading you two to think this?

Desperation and hope

But also the ensemble trends all look fantastic so I don’t blame anyone for being optimistic.

Trends trends trends the trend this year has been north trends

But seriously there's so much evidence and reason to be optimistic I definitely have not seen a setup this good inside 100 hours in years even last week it had already shifted away from us by now

I mean yeah there's a small part of me that could see it not happening but that is definitely decreasing as time goes along

[EnnisTx]

Yup I'm still feeling great being north of the bullseye lol

What data is leading you two to think this?

Desperation and hope

But also the ensemble trends all look fantastic so I don’t blame anyone for being optimistic.

Exactly, the trends are looking pretty dang good!