Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Haris]

Good thing it’s the 84hr nam

[South Texas Storms]

Good thing it’s the 84hr nam

Yeah big change from the 18z run. Looks like it's out to lunch at 0z...showing the precip about to end in Austin/SA at 6am Sunday? I don't think so

[bubba hotep]

Take this out a few more frames as the system swings around negative and that is a crushing for N. Texas.

[Brent]

Good thing it’s the 84hr nam

I have to agree with how close that rain line is taken verbatim anyway

[bubba hotep]

A repost from earlier but this is greatness for Texas:

From a synoptic and
climatological standpoint this is an excellent upper level pattern
for snow to occur in Texas as it brings cold air, lift, and
moisture all into play Sunday. While model guidance at first
glance may suggest that surface temps are a little too warm for
snow, the airmass aloft will be unusually cold with 850mb temps
dropping to -2C to -6C across the region with 500 mb temps at
-26C within the core of the upper low.

[South Texas Storms]

0z ICON is in and shows a big north Texas snowstorm on Sunday. Today's model runs have definitely trended northward. I feel like Austin to Houston's snow chances have decreased compared to yesterday. Still plenty of time for changes, but this system is starting to look like the one that ends the DFW snow drought.

[Texas Snow]

0z ICON is in and shows a big north Texas snowstorm on Sunday. Today's model runs have definitely trended northward. I feel like Austin to Houston's snow chances have decreased compared to yesterday. Still plenty of time for changes, but this system is starting to look like the one that ends the DFW snow drought.

I think I love you

[bubba hotep]

0z ICON is in and shows a big north Texas snowstorm on Sunday. Today's model runs have definitely trended northward. I feel like Austin to Houston's snow chances have decreased compared to yesterday. Still plenty of time for changes, but this system is starting to look like the one that ends the DFW snow drought.

Odd sequence, looks to be taking the southern track and then energy diving down the backside captures the lead s/w and pulls it back northward resulting in this.

[Ntxw]

There's a lot of northern stream interaction. This could be the big one for I-20. Though I would not count anyone out in central Texas for some action.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 just went south track, with a could go north.... so we shall see

[HockeyTx82]

0z ICON is in and shows a big north Texas snowstorm on Sunday. Today's model runs have definitely trended northward. I feel like Austin to Houston's snow chances have decreased compared to yesterday. Still plenty of time for changes, but this system is starting to look like the one that ends the DFW snow drought.

Odd sequence, looks to be taking the southern track and then energy diving down the backside captures the lead s/w and pulls it back northward resulting in this.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021010700/icon_z500_vort_us_37.png

Remind me, what are we looking at again?

[Texas Snow]

0z ICON is in and shows a big north Texas snowstorm on Sunday. Today's model runs have definitely trended northward. I feel like Austin to Houston's snow chances have decreased compared to yesterday. Still plenty of time for changes, but this system is starting to look like the one that ends the DFW snow drought.

Odd sequence, looks to be taking the southern track and then energy diving down the backside captures the lead s/w and pulls it back northward resulting in this.

This is why the nuances of snow in North Texas are so hard to predict and something the general public will never understand while bashing the “weatherman”. I love it however.

The 0z GFS is now running!

[Ntxw]

0z ICON is in and shows a big north Texas snowstorm on Sunday. Today's model runs have definitely trended northward. I feel like Austin to Houston's snow chances have decreased compared to yesterday. Still plenty of time for changes, but this system is starting to look like the one that ends the DFW snow drought.

Odd sequence, looks to be taking the southern track and then energy diving down the backside captures the lead s/w and pulls it back northward resulting in this.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2021010700/icon_z500_vort_us_37.png

Remind me, what are we looking at again?

Quicker negative tilt forced. Basically the same type of tilt as last week over New Year's eve but everything slightly further east.

[bubba hotep]

Fox 4 just went south track, with a could go north.... so we shall see

I understand what FWD said in their discussion from earlier but nothing in the latest model data supports jumping on the south track. Maybe it happens but all the trends this evening have been shifting north.

[Ntxw]

You can already tell on the latest GFS before it settles that a more amped, northerly solution is going to take place on this run. 850s are not as far south as yesterday's 0z run.

Today's 0z


Yesterday

[Brent]

Did anyone notice the snow hole over NE DFW on the ICON

[Haris]

Snow line comes 150 miles S on the gfs. Not bad

[Ntxw]

Here is a 500mb animation of the changes we have gone through on the upper levels. More amplified and slower system overall.

[Brent]

What an odd radar depiction

[Ntxw]

What an odd radar depiction

https://i.ibb.co/JtkDwT3/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-16.png

It's the warmest of the bunch at the surface. Precip shield on most of the guidance has trended to be pretty similar. 0z GFS-P below with slightly cooler surface temps.