Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

As I posted yesterday, we still have a long ways to go and models have at least 3 significant areas of energy that need to be resolved in order to pin down the weekend event. Below is the 24hr change in precipitation placement on the 1st system. So yea, lots to figure out.



vs

[bubba hotep]

FWD doesn't seem to be buying the "southern snow" train just yet.

[TheProfessor]

The trend this year has been storms to trend northwest with time. I haven't been following this storm, but if it's expected to go neutral to negative tilt somewhere in Texas or western Louisiana, then that favors North Texas and not Central Texas in most cases.

[Cerlin]

The trend this year has been storms to trend northwest with time. I haven't been following this storm, but if it's expected to go neutral to negative tilt somewhere in Texas or western Louisiana, then that favors North Texas and not Central Texas in most cases.

Exactly what I’m thinking. Given the bad luck of NTX as of late, this will be the time the bullseye verifies

However, I’d stay optimistic no matter where you are in Texas. I think any spot has about equal chance of snow given how far out we are. I’m interested for the NAM to come in and see if it follows the Euro or the GFS more.

[Brent]

The trend this year has been storms to trend northwest with time. I haven't been following this storm, but if it's expected to go neutral to negative tilt somewhere in Texas or western Louisiana, then that favors North Texas and not Central Texas in most cases.

That's exactly what I'm thinking but this is DFW we're talking about lmao

[orangeblood]

Temps this weekend continue to plummet on Euro...mid 30’s for highs on Saturday in DFW, lows approaching upper 20’s!! Moisture and lift are next ingredients on the list!

[Ntxw]

Temps this weekend continue to plummet on Euro...mid 30’s for highs on Saturday in DFW, lows approaching upper 20’s!! Moisture and lift are next ingredients on the list!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-operational/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf/1609869600/1609869600-RoGE2Ncb1sI.png

The pre-conditioning for this system is beautiful. Very chilly ahead like it was for some of the good snow events. We just need some help at the upper levels! Get some moisture and get some lift going!

[gpsnowman]

Temps this weekend continue to plummet on Euro...mid 30’s for highs on Saturday in DFW, lows approaching upper 20’s!! Moisture and lift are next ingredients on the list!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-operational/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf/1609869600/1609869600-RoGE2Ncb1sI.png

I am liking those temps. It's funny because the local TV forecasts are not even close to those. Playing coy and conservative for now until all this gets sorted out. Good trends.

[Cpv17]

Temps this weekend continue to plummet on Euro...mid 30’s for highs on Saturday in DFW, lows approaching upper 20’s!! Moisture and lift are next ingredients on the list!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-operational/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf/1609869600/1609869600-RoGE2Ncb1sI.png

I am liking those temps. It's funny because the local TV forecasts are not even close to those. Playing coy and conservative for now until all this gets sorted out. Good trends.

Same here down in the Houston area. They have forecast temps for highs 15 degrees or so warmer than what the models are showing.

[Brent]

Temps this weekend continue to plummet on Euro...mid 30’s for highs on Saturday in DFW, lows approaching upper 20’s!! Moisture and lift are next ingredients on the list!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-operational/KDFW/daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf/1609869600/1609869600-RoGE2Ncb1sI.png

I am liking those temps. It's funny because the local TV forecasts are not even close to those. Playing coy and conservative for now until all this gets sorted out. Good trends.

Yeah that looks much better than what everyone is showing

[bubba hotep]

Some pretty big changes on the 18z Euro at 90hrs and a nice uptick in northern tracks on the 18z EPS.

[orangeblood]

These Mets need to start paying attention the the upper level temperature trends in the central plains, the cold advection looks legit this weekend. Plus the latest 18Z Euro ENS members have some serious heavy hitters for a major winter storm on Sunday, trend looks good

[EnnisTx]

Thing's are looking good over the next few months for us and we all deserve it. This would make for a bit more sanity for everyone with this Covid crap going crazy. I did receive the first round of the Moderna vaccine today though. It's made me feel like crap, but that's expected for a day or two.

[bubba hotep]

These Mets need to start paying attention the the upper level temperature trends in the central plains, the cold advection looks legit this weekend. Plus the latest 18Z Euro ENS members have some serious heavy hitters for a major winter storm on Sunday, trend looks good

One thing of note, southern track suppressed systems really don't produce much snow and all the big guns are the northern trackers.

[Brent]

nobody talking about snow for DFW on tv tonight lol

Steve McCauley said maybe some to the south and west

[starsfan65]

nobody talking about snow for DFW on tv tonight lol

Steve McCauley said maybe some to the south and west

Are you kidding me?

[Cerlin]

GFS still showing a central texas jackpot

[JDawg512]

EWX is holding firm that precip will end before it gets cold enough. KXAN has possible wintery mix. Will see how things look 24 hours from now. Will be curious to see if EWX changes their tune or continues to forecast just rain.

[Brent]

CMC is really far south Austin gets snow but the heaviest is to the south of even them

[jaguars_22]

Right on me in Victoria ya right!!! Only happened once in my 33 yrs and it was 2004 Christmas Eve! Best Christmas ever!

Does anyone really believe these models???