Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

GFS is again rain for DFW although there is some snow in East Texas

CMC looking interesting again for DFW

GFS continues to look good above the surface. We'll see if it trends colder in the lower levels.

[TheProfessor]

GFS is again rain for DFW although there is some snow in East Texas

CMC looking interesting again for DFW

GFS continues to look good above the surface. We'll see if it trends colder in the lower levels.

Above the surface is the most important. If you can get the entire column below freezing except at the lowest level, then thermodynamics will win out assuming there's heavy precipitation and the surface temperature isn't absurdly warm.

[Brent]

Meanwhile the Euro is super far south DFW is totally dry with a "mix" on the maps around Austin and Houston but overall it's less impressive than the previous runs

[WinterMax]

Meanwhile the Euro is super far south DFW is totally dry with a "mix" on the maps around Austin and Houston but overall it's less impressive than the previous runs

https://i.ibb.co/QmkpJbC/sn10-acc-us-sc-15.png

That's fine, just deliver it right down here to Lafayette Lol

[cheezyWXguy]

Friendship ended with ECMWF, now CMC is my best friend

[gpsnowman]

Meanwhile the Euro is super far south DFW is totally dry with a "mix" on the maps around Austin and Houston but overall it's less impressive than the previous runs

https://i.ibb.co/QmkpJbC/sn10-acc-us-sc-15.png

That's fine, just deliver it right down here to Lafayette Lol

Watch out, the Pelican State could see some action later this week.

[Portastorm]

I did find it interesting that almost half of the 0z Euro ensemble members showed snowfall of some kind for Austin as did the 0z crazy Canadian. I don't know if one can also see temp profiles on each of those members but at least the access I have to that information does not show that. So I don't know if the model algorithm is off or not. As it is, the 0z Euro operational shows surface temps above freezing here so I'm skeptical.

Hey, for the record I'm rooting for you DFW folks. I'll tell you what ... I will trade a 2" snowfall for a thundersleet event here in Austin. How does that sound?!

[bubba hotep]

Meanwhile the Euro is super far south DFW is totally dry with a "mix" on the maps around Austin and Houston but overall it's less impressive than the previous runs

https://i.ibb.co/QmkpJbC/sn10-acc-us-sc-15.png

Based on the 00z & 06z Euro EPS it looks like the 00z Euro is an outlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z shift back north and wetter.

Also, the GFS-P is rocking! I haven't followed it much but I've seen some comments that it has performed well here recently.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile the Euro is super far south DFW is totally dry with a "mix" on the maps around Austin and Houston but overall it's less impressive than the previous runs

https://i.ibb.co/QmkpJbC/sn10-acc-us-sc-15.png

Based on the 00z & 06z Euro EPS it looks like the 00z Euro is an outlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z shift back north and wetter.

Also, the GFS-P is rocking! I haven't followed it much but I've seen some comments that it has performed well here recently.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2021010506/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

GFS-P/V16 is supposed to be the upgraded GFS in Feb. Overall it does a decent job. The CMC is often too cold while the GFS has a warm bias that the upgraded version is better at correcting.

[gpsnowman]

I did find it interesting that almost half of the 0z Euro ensemble members showed snowfall of some kind for Austin as did the 0z crazy Canadian. I don't know if one can also see temp profiles on each of those members but at least the access I have to that information does not show that. So I don't know if the model algorithm is off or not. As it is, the 0z Euro operational shows surface temps above freezing here so I'm skeptical.

Hey, for the record I'm rooting for you DFW folks. I'll tell you what ... I will trade a 2" snowfall for a thundersleet event here in Austin. How does that sound?!

Deal. That is a win-win for everyone.

[orangeblood]

Meanwhile the Euro is super far south DFW is totally dry with a "mix" on the maps around Austin and Houston but overall it's less impressive than the previous runs

https://i.ibb.co/QmkpJbC/sn10-acc-us-sc-15.png

Based on the 00z & 06z Euro EPS it looks like the 00z Euro is an outlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z shift back north and wetter.

Also, the GFS-P is rocking! I haven't followed it much but I've seen some comments that it has performed well here recently.

]

Agreed, 0Z Euro does look like an outlier...6Z Euro Control similar to GFS-P. Should start to see some better consolidation today on the models as we approach the 120 hr mark - saw that with last weeks storm

[WinterMax]

Meanwhile the Euro is super far south DFW is totally dry with a "mix" on the maps around Austin and Houston but overall it's less impressive than the previous runs

https://i.ibb.co/QmkpJbC/sn10-acc-us-sc-15.png

Based on the 00z & 06z Euro EPS it looks like the 00z Euro is an outlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z shift back north and wetter.

Also, the GFS-P is rocking! I haven't followed it much but I've seen some comments that it has performed well here recently.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2021010506/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

If this verifies, I have friends in Shreveport, I'll drive up from Lafayette and spend a couple of days there

[gpsnowman]

Meanwhile the Euro is super far south DFW is totally dry with a "mix" on the maps around Austin and Houston but overall it's less impressive than the previous runs

https://i.ibb.co/QmkpJbC/sn10-acc-us-sc-15.png

Based on the 00z & 06z Euro EPS it looks like the 00z Euro is an outlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z shift back north and wetter.

Also, the GFS-P is rocking! I haven't followed it much but I've seen some comments that it has performed well here recently.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2021010506/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

If this verifies, I have friends in Shreveport, I'll drive up from Lafayette and spend a couple of days there

My folks live on Caddo Lake just west of Shreveport so they could be in the crosshairs. I've only seen snow one time on the lake Christmas day 2012 I believe, but it was very light. It got heavier as we drove down I-20 towards DFW.

[Haris]

GFS looks like a perfect snowstorm setup for Austin !!

[Ntxw]

Well for the north Texas folks, this run of the GFS just Euro'ed. Too cold aloft = suppression depression?

[WinterMax]

Based on the 00z & 06z Euro EPS it looks like the 00z Euro is an outlier. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z shift back north and wetter.

Also, the GFS-P is rocking! I haven't followed it much but I've seen some comments that it has performed well here recently.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2021010506/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

If this verifies, I have friends in Shreveport, I'll drive up from Lafayette and spend a couple of days there

My folks live on Caddo Lake just west of Shreveport so they could be in the crosshairs. I've only seen snow one time on the lake Christmas day 2012 I believe, but it was very light. It got heavier as we drove down I-20 towards DFW.

GFS is ruining it this run.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Holy moly, i just caught with this storm. I've been skiing in Crested Butte all week. Currently dumping outside. I'll put my $.02 in around lunch. Pumped!

[bubba hotep]

Well for the north Texas folks, this run of the GFS just Euro'ed. Too cold aloft = suppression depression?

Yep, super suppressed. Maybe some flakes for the Hill Country. That is never a good sign when the GFS jumps towards the Euro.

[Haris]

[cheezyWXguy]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/vVxg4Yq/ACAA01-DF-F970-424-F-92-B3-B74622-B7-D2-F7.png [/url]

Friendship ended with CMC now too