Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#761 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:20 pm

Brent wrote:40s and rain on the GFS again :spam:


Looks colder aloft but no major changes despite looking better earlier in the run at H5.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#762 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:23 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:40s and rain on the GFS again :spam:


Looks colder aloft but no major changes despite looking better earlier in the run at H5.


Much colder aloft, any heavy precip temps will plummet. GFS surface reflection looks off!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#763 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:38 pm

Yeah 850mb temps are quite different between 18z and 12z much colder aloft. Windshield wipe :lol:. That's kind of what you want for a trend, you want cold 850mb temps, good vortmax, and saturated lower levels (not too cold and dry).

18z
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12z
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#764 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:45 pm

For comparison here was the 12z Euro for the same period.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#765 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:54 pm

Ntxw wrote:For comparison here was the 12z Euro for the same period.



Euro shows this scenario on 12Z quite well. Heavier precip pulls cold air aloft down to surface while light precip doesn’t.... it’s why snow accumulations are further south across central Texas even though North Texas gets precip, it’s just on the lighter side
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#766 Postby JDawg512 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:09 pm

The battle for which region wins the winter weather prize has begun. Austin vs DFW... :wink:

I'm on team Austin...! :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#767 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:17 pm

JDawg512 wrote:The battle for which region wins the winter weather prize has begun. Austin vs DFW... :wink:

I'm on team Austin...! :ggreen:


DFW hasn't won in over 5 years lmao

Austin won in 17 or 18

GEFS mean doesn't seem overly excited
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#768 Postby TexasF6 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:08 pm

JDawg512 wrote:The battle for which region wins the winter weather prize has begun. Austin vs DFW... :wink:

I'm on team Austin...! :ggreen:


LET'S GO TEAM AUSTIN!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#769 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:11 pm

Team Austin AND team Dallas ;)
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#770 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:17 pm

Haris wrote:Team Austin AND team Dallas ;)


Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#771 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:31 pm

Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:Team Austin AND team Dallas ;)


Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost SINCE I MOVED HERE lol


FIFY
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#772 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:57 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:Team Austin AND team Dallas ;)


Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost SINCE I MOVED HERE lol


FIFY


:spam: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#773 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:06 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:Team Austin AND team Dallas ;)


Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost SINCE I MOVED HERE lol


FIFY

To be fair he was here for our last snow in 2015. I will not vouch after that though. :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#774 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:42 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:
Brent wrote:
Yeah honestly why not I hate how it's a competition

Especially when DFW has always lost SINCE I MOVED HERE lol


FIFY

To be fair he was here for our last snow in 2015. I will not vouch after that though. :roll:


I mean I even took several vacations and it still didn't snow really lmao
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#775 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:39 pm

I moved here in late 2014, so I had a couple of good snows, then zip. The way some of those set up was to give me good snow when people east got rain in Dallas, so I thought I was well-positioned in western Tarrant just west of 35, but ever since, that hasn't helped me. Lol. I was still far too east....or north when Waco or somebody else got it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#776 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:48 pm

18z GFS-P is a big Oklahoma snowstorm. It looks like the 18z Euro EPS has more members with a snowstorm centered over N. TX vs. 12z. This is going to be a wild ride with multiple s/w crashing in under the block. We probably won't truly start to pin things down until the 1st one is clearing out (Wed/Thur) and the middle kicker is resolved.

Thursday evening should start to pin things down as our system is just coming onshore?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#777 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:34 pm

bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS-P is a big Oklahoma snowstorm. It looks like the 18z Euro EPS has more members with a snowstorm centered over N. TX vs. 12z. This is going to be a wild ride with multiple s/w crashing in under the block. We probably won't truly start to pin things down until the 1st one is clearing out (Wed/Thur) and the middle kicker is resolved.

Thursday evening should start to pin things down as our system is just coming onshore?

https://i.ibb.co/k4q1Y76/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-5.png


The Oklahoma snow was cute at first but I'm over it now lol time for someone else to cash in
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#778 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:10 pm

Man OKC has gotten almost a foot of snow this year...that’s more than DFW’s last 7 years combined. And if you only include the last 5 years, that’s almost a foot of snow more! :lol: I’d love to see this next system break that trend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#779 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:27 pm

GFS is again rain for DFW although there is some snow in East Texas

CMC looking interesting again for DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#780 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:35 pm

Haha interesting isn't the word for this February 2010 redux :double: :spam: :froze:

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