Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/BqckfYW/745-B7-FF4-4-B75-4-FE9-B245-47390-ABEB3-B8.jpg [/url]

Before we get excited , these were the ensembles for last week.

indeed... I know I chased but I'm still salty I had to

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow: Yep, let's not fall for Charlie Brown's tricks just yet! I would like to see the Euro come on board. It did pretty well with last week's system. Still a lot of days and model runs to go. The pattern overall looks good for us this month though it seems.

Very good loading pattern in place with an active Pacific s/w train in place. The timing will vary some but models are in good agreement that we will see one pushing across Texas next weekend. Also, we should continue to see temps step down into February or as long as the blocking holds. We will see numerous chance with slight timing and track differences being the difference between rain/snow locations. Way better than the last few winters!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Yep, let's not fall for Charlie Brown's tricks just yet! I would like to see the Euro come on board. It did pretty well with last week's system. Still a lot of days and model runs to go. The pattern overall looks good for us this month though it seems.

Very good loading pattern in place with an active Pacific s/w train in place. The timing will vary some but models are in good agreement that we will see one pushing across Texas next weekend. Also, we should continue to see temps step down into February or as long as the blocking holds. We will see numerous chance with slight timing and track differences being the difference between rain/snow locations. Way better than the last few winters!

No Great Lakes shredderola trough of the past few winters. Storms have peaked and matured coming out of Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Yep, let's not fall for Charlie Brown's tricks just yet! I would like to see the Euro come on board. It did pretty well with last week's system. Still a lot of days and model runs to go. The pattern overall looks good for us this month though it seems.

Very good loading pattern in place with an active Pacific s/w train in place. The timing will vary some but models are in good agreement that we will see one pushing across Texas next weekend. Also, we should continue to see temps step down into February or as long as the blocking holds. We will see numerous chance with slight timing and track differences being the difference between rain/snow locations. Way better than the last few winters!

Agreed! 12z Euro now looks more in line with the GFS for next weekend's system. Snow possible across much of the northern half of Texas.

[Ntxw]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Good thing it is a week away .

[Cpv17]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Good thing it is a week away .

A lot of snow in Louisiana.

This system needs to get juiced up more. Not too impressed with the totals but I guess we can’t be too greedy lol

[orangeblood]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Good thing it is a week away .

Yes it is....take with grain of salt but potential is there - check out some of these GEFS members, Control run has 3 snow events over next 2 weeks totaling over a foot

[bubba hotep]

One thing to watch in this pattern, with big blocking in place it is more likely that this system wraps up a bit more and comes north some. The past few winters we saw a lot of positive tilted long wave troughs with a big Great Lakes low. This made it basically impossible for systems to wrap up with cold air over the top. However, the setup of the past few winters did favor overrunning events with impulses coming out of the SW and we saw a few winter weather events way down south of DFW

[harp]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Good thing it is a week away .

A lot of snow in Louisiana.

This system needs to get juiced up more. Not too impressed with the totals but I guess we can’t be too greedy lol

Did someone say Louisiana??

[bubba hotep]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Good thing it is a week away .

Yes it is....take with grain of salt but potential is there - check out some of these GEFS members, Control run has 3 snow events over next 2 weeks totaling over a foot

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KFWD/indiv_snow/1609675200/1609675200-cvHTXkEwBbQ.png

As long as the blocking holds, we will have numerous chances of winter weather across Texas. The crazy thing, analogs point to the best pattern not being until Feb

[bubba hotep]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Good thing it is a week away .

A lot of snow in Louisiana.

This system needs to get juiced up more. Not too impressed with the totals but I guess we can’t be too greedy lol

Did someone say Louisiana??

[harp]

Well, that's getting closer to me!!

[bubba hotep]

Weenie 101 from my time back east "The models lock into the Big one early on"

Now watch everything trend suppressed this week with all the precipitation out in the Gulf lol

[HockeyTx82]

After the last few winters and always one week away I'm not holding my breath. For as much money that I suspect are pumped into these models they sure do like to project the worst only to have nothing materialize of late.

[orangeblood]

After the last few winters and always one week away I'm not holding my breath. For as much money that I suspect are pumped into these models they sure do like to project the worst only to have nothing materialize of late.

This is approaching the strike zone though, we aren’t 10 plus days out. Trend looks really good, particularly the blocking regime and upper level temps. Our big events in 2010 and 2013 were pretty consistently forecast 7-8 days out

[cheezyWXguy]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Good thing it is a week away .

Yes it is....take with grain of salt but potential is there - check out some of these GEFS members, Control run has 3 snow events over next 2 weeks totaling over a foot

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KFWD/indiv_snow/1609675200/1609675200-cvHTXkEwBbQ.png

Are those members measuring totals in cm or inches??
Edit: I see now there’s a decimal point, haha. Still impressive.

[EnnisTx]

Euro is a step in the right direction. Good thing it is a week away .

Yes it is....take with grain of salt but potential is there - check out some of these GEFS members, Control run has 3 snow events over next 2 weeks totaling over a foot

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KFWD/indiv_snow/1609675200/1609675200-cvHTXkEwBbQ.png

Are those members measuring totals in cm or inches??
Edit: I see now there’s a decimal point, haha. Still impressive.

That would be over a foot of snow during that timeframe.

[Ntxw]

After the last few winters and always one week away I'm not holding my breath. For as much money that I suspect are pumped into these models they sure do like to project the worst only to have nothing materialize of late.

We've certainly been head-faked a couple of times! But I would say the models are actually pretty decent sniffing out. In recent times within the medium range you are scoring above ~90% or close. The issue is specific places like DFW, Austin etc, usually near misses.

I remember pre 2010 where models were horrific. It would snow when they predicted it not to snow, snow was always 10+ days out. 5-7 days is slight improvement . There is also a lot less la la fantasy snow than they used to show.

[Cerlin]

After the last few winters and always one week away I'm not holding my breath. For as much money that I suspect are pumped into these models they sure do like to project the worst only to have nothing materialize of late.

We've certainly been head-faked a couple of times! But I would say the models are actually pretty decent sniffing out. In recent times within the medium range you are scoring above ~90% or close. The issue is specific places like DFW, Austin etc, usually near misses.

I remember pre 2010 where models were horrific. It would snow when they predicted it not to snow, snow was always 10+ days out. 5-7 days is slight improvement . There is also a lot less la la fantasy snow than they used to show.

Just even the last 4 years they have improved significantly. I think the days of us getting surprise snow are all but over.

[Brent]

After the last few winters and always one week away I'm not holding my breath. For as much money that I suspect are pumped into these models they sure do like to project the worst only to have nothing materialize of late.

We've certainly been head-faked a couple of times! But I would say the models are actually pretty decent sniffing out. In recent times within the medium range you are scoring above ~90% or close. The issue is specific places like DFW, Austin etc, usually near misses.

I remember pre 2010 where models were horrific. It would snow when they predicted it not to snow, snow was always 10+ days out. 5-7 days is slight improvement . There is also a lot less la la fantasy snow than they used to show.

Just even the last 4 years they have improved significantly. I think the days of us getting surprise snow are all but over.

That is one thing I will say *IF*** we get a consistent signal for a snowstorm it becomes more believable I mean look at the other day once it shifted away from DFW it never went back. It has to be more than a day or two of runs though