Texas Winter 2020-2021

[weatherdude1108]

I'm late to the party but I just watched Brent's video and saw the photos from Brent and Yukon ... great stuff, fellas! Thanks for sharing and here's hoping next time Brent won't have to leave his home to get similar video!

I'm just happy that I got about 2" of rain the last few days. #LiquidGold.

2.8" here! Very nice.

[cstrunk]

3.65" of cooold rain here in Longview.

[captainbarbossa19]

Happy New Year to all! Glad to see many people received some snow! At my location, it was all rain. Speaking of rain, I cannot remember who all said that this winter was going to be dry, but I think that after receiving 10 inches of rain in December and more on the way, the remainder of this winter is unlikely to be dry. The storm track is really far to the south this winter. If this trend continues, I suspect that we may need to pay close attention to severe weather threats (especially this spring).

[EnnisTx]

Breaking News: Flizzard of the century early this morning. You could almost see it without reading glasses. Feeling special!

[dhweather]

Happy New Year everyone!

3.2" of liquid gold in Heath

More importantly, most of the lakes saw significant rises - Lavon up 2.2 feet, Ray Hubbard up 1.8 feet

[hriverajr]

GFS once again showing winter precipitation chances in West Central Texas around the 9th.

[Brent]

GFS once again showing winter precipitation chances in West Central Texas around the 9th.

The 0z is very close to getting DFW into it

That track along the Northern Gulf coast looks pretty classic to me it's just will it be cold enough?

[harp]

GFS brings the mother load of cold down from Canada in the latter frames.... we shall see if a trend emerges....

[WinterMax]

The GFS bringing snow to texas next weekend eh?

[DonWrk]

06z run of the GFS is pretty beautiful!

[orangeblood]

06z run of the GFS is pretty beautiful!

Long Range GEFS looks even better

[Ntxw]

Here we go again with some guidance pushing for snow next weekend. But caveat is that 6-7 days away right now and Euro not quite on board yet.

[bubba hotep]

Models show blocking holding strong over the next couple of weeks with a number of systems moving underneath and across the Southern Plains. The blocking is so extreme that it currently isn't allowing any cold air to build up north but that should change over time. We will have multiple threats to track as long as this blocking holds strong and there are indications that it could hold well into February or even March. Should be fun times for Texas.

Models seem to be picking up something for next weekend across Texas. As of now, it looks like most models are in agreement in a system tracking across Texas with better cold air in place. It appears that moisture return and/or suppression might be an issue as the mid-week system scours out moisture from the northern Gulf. Obviously, the 12z GFS is the desirable solution as it leaves a moisture tap place along the far Western Gulf and that allows the weekend system to juice up.

[orangeblood]

Here we go again with some guidance pushing for snow next weekend. But caveat is that 6-7 days away right now and Euro not quite on board yet.

Really aggressive signal from latest GEFS for this weekend

[bubba hotep]

It's still a week out but that is a pretty good area avg sounding for N. Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Here we go again with some guidance pushing for snow next weekend. But caveat is that 6-7 days away right now and Euro not quite on board yet.

Really aggressive signal from latest GEFS for this weekend

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_96hr_inch/1609675200/1610442000-XpGNMutPJas.png

Yea, the 12z GEFS has a, dare I say, Feb '10 look to it.

[Brent]

always a week out

[Ntxw]

Here we go again with some guidance pushing for snow next weekend. But caveat is that 6-7 days away right now and Euro not quite on board yet.

Really aggressive signal from latest GEFS for this weekend

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_96hr_inch/1609675200/1610442000-XpGNMutPJas.png

Yea, the 12z GEFS has a, dare I say, Feb '10 look to it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021010312/gfs-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_30.png

Regardless of the snow a few days ago (to the west) the pattern still stands as one of the blockiest since Feb '10. Which in itself never was that cold either (it was by average) but in terms of Arctic air it wasn't. The big SSW is only going to lock in place the block (is it a case of the chicken or the egg?) It's nice to see the persistent -AO and help from the NAO. If we can just get one big snow event then we will talk back about this being a highly blocked winter, la nina no less. Retrogression from the North Atlantic into the Arctic/Sub-Arctic of Northern Canada can help bring some colder air. If the Pacific could let up just a little bit..

[Haris]

Before we get excited , these were the ensembles for last week.

[South Texas Storms]

Yep, let's not fall for Charlie Brown's tricks just yet! I would like to see the Euro come on board. It did pretty well with last week's system. Still a lot of days and model runs to go. The pattern overall looks good for us this month though it seems.