Texas Winter 2020-2021

[orangeblood]

Just a reminder, all the favorable trends we saw yesterday basically occurred in a 24hr model cycle from a poor setup to a better one. The trends the last 12 - 18 hrs have been in the wrong direction but not to the point of throwing in the towel. Plenty of model runs left to swing our emotions lol

Yep, it’s time to shift focus to short range suites...latest SREF trends still look good for main axis through DFW. Rain, Freezing rain, sleet to snow transition

[Brent]

well the 12z Euro rain totals are impressive a 992 mb low over DFW 5 inches of rain

the snow on the other hand...

[TropicalTundra]

At least the 12k NAM keeps it less west but pushes it far south to San Antonio

[cheezyWXguy]

At least the 12k NAM keeps it less west but pushes it far south to San Antonio

https://i.imgur.com/3bllK1J.jpg

Nam is believable but shows less snow depth in dfw due temps hovering just above freezing. Total snow is like 8” in the eastern half of the area, but most melts

[cheezyWXguy]

18z nam is starting. If it loses the winter precip, I’m jumping off the wagon and I’ll be pleasantly surprised if anything at all happens

[Brent]

I wanna go back to yesterday when this setup felt different now it just seems like the usual west of us gets most of the fun and we have to hope for some quick wraparound snow

[Cerlin]

NAM is also west, but only slightly.

[cheezyWXguy]

NAM is also west, but only slightly.

Enough to keep dfw as rain for at least a larger portion of the event. Not good trends for winter weather.

[DonWrk]

Gut feeling says this is going to be one of those borderline events and after all these years were due for one to go our way!

[EnnisTx]

Statement out for the West.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 209 PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-291100- Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho- Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford- Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble- Mason- Including the cities of Gannon, Sweetwater, Broome, Sterling City, Robert Lee, Sanco, Silver, Bronte, Tennyson, Ballinger, Benoit, Hatchel, Rowena, Crews, Drasco, Pumphrey, Barnhart, Arden, Mertzon, Sherwood, Carlsbad, San Angelo, Wall, Eden, Live Oak, Lowake, Ozona, Eldorado, Sonora, Irby, Haskell, Throckmorton, Woodson, Stamford, Stith, Anson, Funston, Truby, Tuxedo, Hamlin, Albany, Abilene, Clyde, Eula, Dudley, Baird, Cross Plains, Coleman, Echo, Fisk, Valera, Voss, Trickham, Brownwood, Indian Creek, Brady, Fife, Lohn, Rochelle, Voca, Chappel, Cherokee, Harkeyville, San Saba, Erna, Fort Mckavett, Hext, Menard, Cleo, Junction, London, Roosevelt, Segovia, Telegraph, Fredonia, Katemcy, Koockville, Loyal Valley, Mason, Pontotoc, and Streeter 209 PM CST Mon Dec 28 2020 ...Significant Winter Storm to bring a chance of snow and strong storms to West Central Texas this week... A potent upper level storm system will move across the area this week. Strong storms are possible Tuesday Night as the system approaches, with snow then possible Wednesday into Thursday. What you need to know. 1. The main threat this week will be the chance for snow, likely starting as early as late Wednesday afternoon across the western Big Country and Concho Valley. The chance for snow will increase across all of West Central Texas Wednesday Night and Thursday morning. Its still a little too early to forecast exact snow amounts, but there is a potential for enough snow accumulation to produce hazardous driving conditions over at least a portion of West Central Texas. 2. There is also a potential for strong thunderstorms on Tuesday night across most of the area. Small hail, gusty winds and dangerous lightning are possible as these storms sweep across the area. 3. The forecast will become more certain with both the snow and thunderstorm potential as we get into later Monday and Tuesday. Watches and warnings may be required. Motorists who are planning on traveling across the area should pay special attention and plan on adjusting your travel based on the latest forecast.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Blocking is showing up earlier on the models. Solid blocking near Greenland by January 4th now.

[bubba hotep]

Blocking is showing up earlier on the models. Solid blocking near Greenland by January 4th now.

It's kind of an odd pattern. Newest Euro Weeklies show predominately -AO/NAO but mostly +EPO/WPO. It's hard to get sustained cold with out some Pacific help.

[harp]

Blocking is showing up earlier on the models. Solid blocking near Greenland by January 4th now.

Good. Maybe that will get us out of this zonal flow the models have been showing the last few days.

[Cpv17]

Blocking is showing up earlier on the models. Solid blocking near Greenland by January 4th now.

I still don’t see any major artic dumps coming down though.

[orangeblood]

Blocking is showing up earlier on the models. Solid blocking near Greenland by January 4th now.

I still don’t see any major artic dumps coming down though.

Yep, EPO typically rules our winter around here...until it goes negative, going to be very difficult for any sustainable cold

[harp]

Wait, I thought blocking was good? Greenland block?

[bubba hotep]

Wait, I thought blocking was good? Greenland block?

Nothing in weather is ever straight forward lol

[Cpv17]

Wait, I thought blocking was good? Greenland block?

It is good but you still need blocking near the western coast of Canada and Gulf of Alaska regions.

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro with another tick west with 4 - 6" of rain for DFW. It looks like out south of Midland towards Rankin could be the jackpot. Good grief, this is a really crazy track and with some colder air in place we would be talking the biggest snowstorm ever for DFW.

[Brent]

18z Euro with another tick west with 4 - 6" of rain for DFW. It looks like out south of Midland towards Rankin could be the jackpot. Good grief, this is a really crazy track and with some colder air in place we would be talking the biggest snowstorm ever for DFW.

Instead we get days of rain as much as we really need it I'm not looking forward to it this is gonna be a big what could have been