Texas Winter 2020-2021

[CaptinCrunch]

Merry Christmas everyone, and have a safe and wonderful holiday weekend.

[BigB0882]

Merry Christmas! I’m just so happy to have a Christmas Day that is this beautiful and actually feels like winter (for us here in SELA, at least).

[South Texas Storms]

Merry Christmas! It's been a nice and chilly past few days here in Houston. No complaints here, although I know someone who probably isn't enjoying it so much

[HockeyTx82]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSMiami/sta ... 5196746752

Is that really a thing? Falling Iguanas.....

Merry Christmas!!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!

Better luck next year, maybe 2021 will bring us a White Christmas!

[orangeblood]

Potential for a Fairly intriguing system next Saturday...models have been hinting at a decent ULL coming across, potential for top down cooling to the surface with this setup

[South Texas Storms]

Before that one, some of the 12z models are showing the mid week system deepening over the state to possibly produce some snow across north and central TX. CMC and ICON are on board.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: Before that one, some of the 12z models are showing the mid week system deepening over the state to possibly produce some snow across north and central TX. CMC and ICON are on board.

Geez, no doubt!! There’s our crazy uncle in all its glory...

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is more progressive with a deep positive tilted trough and the CMC dives energy down the backside, cutting if off, and briefly having it take on a negative tilt look over Texas. This results in totally different results. 00z Euro splits the middle.



vs.

[Haris]

This afternoons model runs are the most intriguing in 4 months lol

[bubba hotep]

NWS forecast for DFW vs. CMC - Sunny with a high near 50 vs. heavy rain changing to sleet/snow with temps dropping into the mid 20s by early afternoon lol

[Brent]

NWS forecast for DFW vs. CMC - Sunny with a high near 50 vs. heavy rain changing to sleet/snow with temps dropping into the mid 20s by early afternoon lol

I'll believe the CMC when I see it

[Ntxw]

No snow for us on the Euro but the upper flow is really close. Lets see if future runs hold the very low heights and if tilt orientation can improve coming out of Northern Mexico. This should be the furthest south system yet of the season with climo assistance. Tilt orientation is the big difference at least between the CMC and GFS/Euro right now.

A negative tilt system coming out of the big bend/Coahuila State usually bodes well for us.

[Haris]

No snow for us on the Euro but the upper flow is really close. Lets see if future runs hold the very low heights and if tilt orientation can improve coming out of Northern Mexico. This should be the furthest south system yet of the season with climo assistance. Tilt orientation is the big difference at least between the CMC and GFS/Euro right now.

A negative tilt system coming out of the big bend/Coahuila State usually bodes well for us.

FWIW, the euro ensemble got snowier for Texas. Dallas mean went from .2” to .7”

Rain also increased statewide compared to 0z. Time to watch

[orangeblood]

No snow for us on the Euro but the upper flow is really close. Lets see if future runs hold the very low heights and if tilt orientation can improve coming out of Northern Mexico. This should be the furthest south system yet of the season with climo assistance. Tilt orientation is the big difference at least between the CMC and GFS/Euro right now.

A negative tilt system coming out of the big bend/Coahuila State usually bodes well for us.

FWIW, the euro ensemble got snowier for Texas. Dallas mean went from .2” to .7”

Rain also increased statewide compared to 0z. Time to watch

Yep, multiple heavy hitters similar to CMC from Euro ENS...bear watch initiated!!!

[bubba hotep]

Last 4 runs of the Euro EPS below. Also, the 12z run has about 30 members that appear to show some variation of the storm that the CMC is showing

[Brent]

FWD AFD

Colder temperatures will arrive behind a Canadian front during
the day Wednesday and persistent cold advection will send temps
down into the 30s areawide by Thursday morning. Uncertainty on the
upper level trough position increases during this time range with
the NBM suggesting increasing snow potential Wednesday night.
Cluster analysis of the ensemble data indicate that about a third
of the members (half of them from the Euro) show a deeper and
slower trough which would increase the chance of precipitation in
the colder airmass. Have included a slight chance mention of rain
and snow mix across the northeastern zones where the juxtaposition
of cold air and precip appears to be highest at this time.

[bubba hotep]

24-hr trend on the GFS, at this rate we could have a snow storm by 00 or 06z

[aggiecutter]

Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
Major stratwarm underway and this usually bodes well for lovers of winter in US. Already starting in Europe ( affects) but will wait till after Jan 5 in the US, Often precursor for major cold, snowy pattern much of the nation.

[Haris]

18z euro eps have increased even more

1” mean for Dallas now.

1/2” for Austin!