Disturbance in SW Caribbean
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CrazyC83
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Disturbance in SW Caribbean
Could this be a sleeper to end the season? 18Z GFS actually develops it into a tropical storm into Nicaragua by Thursday. There's decent convection there but doesn't appear to be a low pressure area. NHC hasn't tagged it.
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NXStumpy_Robothing
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
I've been keeping my eye on this batch of convection all day - been a bit spotty and unfocused, but there seems to be a good synoptic environment for it if the GFS upper-level pattern and shear forecast is to be believed - on the GFS 18z run in particular, this area is allowed several days to develop over water in an environment of extremely low shear (less than 5-10kt) underneath a potent anticyclone and over 28C+ waters.
This could end up on being a late-season surprise like Otto was in 2016. We'll have to see if the GFS is to be believed here - if it is, then the storm could potentially have a ridiculously high ceiling of 115kt+ if the MPI maps are accurate, which is just ridiculous for December. Is it 2021 yet?
This could end up on being a late-season surprise like Otto was in 2016. We'll have to see if the GFS is to be believed here - if it is, then the storm could potentially have a ridiculously high ceiling of 115kt+ if the MPI maps are accurate, which is just ridiculous for December. Is it 2021 yet?
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology
Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
Category 4 Lambda in December as a theoretical possibility is absolutely bonkers.
Obviously very unlikely. Even a tropical storm in that area in December would be historic.
Obviously very unlikely. Even a tropical storm in that area in December would be historic.
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HurricaneEnzo
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
Still has some good convection going but nothing really organzied. If it can fester down there for a couple of days in good conditions might have a chance to do a little something.
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Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
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CrazyC83
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
Still nothing on the NHC although it has some model support.
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CrazyC83
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
Sanibel wrote:Apparent cyclogenesis...
It looks pretty good actually and the latest OPC analysis has a weak low.
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HurricaneEnzo
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
Yep. This escalated quickly. Would be a nice win for the GFS if it forms. Basically the only model showing something
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk
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Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
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CrazyC83
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
We'll get ASCAT passes in the next few hours. Really though, I'd at least have it around 20% there.
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CrazyC83
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
I see an LLC (at least an elongated one) at 9.8N 78.0W...well, well, well.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
This probably needs to be put on a TWO
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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CrazyC83
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The tail end of a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N82W to
N Guatemala near 17N90W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the front. Further S, numerous strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 76W-82W. This convection is
accompanied with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas
to 9 ft.
ASCAT pass suggests winds around 30 kt. Another pass confirms that possible LLC. It's partially embedded within the monsoon trough.
The tail end of a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N82W to
N Guatemala near 17N90W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the front. Further S, numerous strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 13N between 76W-82W. This convection is
accompanied with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas
to 9 ft.
ASCAT pass suggests winds around 30 kt. Another pass confirms that possible LLC. It's partially embedded within the monsoon trough.
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Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
This disturbance appears to be taking shape. Much improved inflow from the NE and a fantastic upper anticyclone directly overhead. Pretty odd to watch from feet away from my lit fireplace in Central Florida LOL
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
Appears to me that there may be two competing LLC/MLC's however the one that has my attention this a.m. is around 11N and 79W. Interestingly the GFS has been signaling genesis for days yet in spite of the improved satellite appearance this a.m. it no longer projects development.
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Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
I’m starting to think this will end up like Edouard: a surprise system that we saw coming, but the NHC didn’t include it as an AOI until later. Where are Aric and GCANE when you need them?
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Disturbance in SW Caribbean
The Atlantic looks all kinds of angry this 1st of December...
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