ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[supercane4867]

This pass indicates Iota is holding steady at 140kt.

[wx98]

That pass alone doesn’t support Cat 5. Let’s see if they can find it on another pass. The pressure is still Cat 5 level though, so maybe. No doubt it was a Cat 5 earlier.

[aspen]

The S quadrant is stronger than last time, but the pressure has remained steady. Let’s see if they find stronger winds in the NW quad.

[ElectricStorm]

Still no double wind max on that pass. No ERC yet so we have to hope it can somehow weaken a bit before landfall but either way it looks like a 135-145kt landfall coming. Awful

[supercane4867]

That pass alone doesn’t support Cat 5. Let’s see if they can find it on another pass. The pressure is still Cat 5 level though, so maybe. No doubt it was a Cat 5 earlier.

130-135kt in the SE eyewall most definitely supports a CAT5 imo, assuming the strongest winds remain in NW quad

[GCANE]

Extrap 917.6mb.
Should tag it around 920mb.
Holding steady since last recon.

[ElectricStorm]

There should be enough time for one more recon mission after this one right? Would be nice to have recon up to landfall for this monster

[supercane4867]

Satellite alone suggests it's entering peak stage just by now

[wx98]

That pass alone doesn’t support Cat 5. Let’s see if they can find it on another pass. The pressure is still Cat 5 level though, so maybe. No doubt it was a Cat 5 earlier.

130-135kt in the SE eyewall most definitely supports a CAT5 imo, assuming the strongest winds remain in NW quad

That pass alone did not find winds >135 kt, so no it doesn’t. Like I said, there may be stronger wind elsewhere.

[underthwx]

There should be enough time for one more recon mission after this one right? Would be nice to have recon up to landfall for this monster

Good question....I don't know if there is time?...

[ElectricStorm]

.CATEGORY 5 IOTA HEADED FOR NICARAGUA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES

[wx98]

1:00 PM EST Mon Nov 16
Location: 13.5°N 82.3°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 918 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

[wx98]

There should be enough time for one more recon mission after this one right? Would be nice to have recon up to landfall for this monster

Good question....I don't know if there is time?...

The next plane is scheduled to leave at 1945z (about 2 hours) and be there by 23z. I would venture to say it will degrade from a Cat 5 by then due to land interaction.

[zeehag]

storm is beautiful. folks are gonna die,.. roofs are gonna fly. it wont be pretty below it.
i hope some folks will step up to help poor nic and honduras after this issue is resolved.
what a month for these folks under this.

[supercane4867]

Could make a run at T7.5 after nightfall if no ERC

[underthwx]

There should be enough time for one more recon mission after this one right? Would be nice to have recon up to landfall for this monster

Good question....I don't know if there is time?...

The next plane is scheduled to leave at 1945z (about 2 hours) and be there by 23z. I would venture to say it will degrade from a Cat 5 by then due to land interaction.

Oh...ok...I did not know if there was another scheduled or not.....thanks

[ElectricStorm]

There should be enough time for one more recon mission after this one right? Would be nice to have recon up to landfall for this monster

Good question....I don't know if there is time?...

The next plane is scheduled to leave at 1945z (about 2 hours) and be there by 23z. I would venture to say it will degrade from a Cat 5 by then due to land interaction.

They might get a pass in then. Hopefully it's still not a 5 at that point but the impact won't be much different unfortunately

[supercane4867]

Drop in SE eyewall. Eye drop suggest 919mb central pressure.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm interested to see what the winds in the NW quad will be. They were the strongest earlier and the other quads have gotten a bit stronger since the previous mission. It could be a case of the winds catching up before the pressure falls again as satellite presentation continues to look better

[underthwx]

Good question....I don't know if there is time?...

The next plane is scheduled to leave at 1945z (about 2 hours) and be there by 23z. I would venture to say it will degrade from a Cat 5 by then due to land interaction.

They might get a pass in then. Hopefully it's still not a 5 at that point but the impact won't be much different unfortunately

I hear ya dude....