ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

2020NOV16 072015 6.1 945.3 117.4 5.9 5.9 7.5 1.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 15.90 -76.12 EYE 12 IR 48.5 13.55 80.88 ARCHER GOES16 17.2

[kevin]

Jus so no one starts freaking out, Tropical Tidbits hasn’t updated for almost an hour but the NHC Recon page is still updating the new flight!

Thank you, I wanted to wait a while before posting about it on the forum but my inner thoughts we're already running wild. Where on the NHC page can we find the new flight data?

[ClarCari]

Jus so no one starts freaking out, Tropical Tidbits hasn’t updated for almost an hour but the NHC Recon page is still updating the new flight!

Thank you, I wanted to wait a while before posting about it on the forum but my inner thoughts we're already running wild. Where on the NHC page can we find the new flight data?

Under Data & Tools at the upper-left of the NHC page.

[kevin]

Jus so no one starts freaking out, Tropical Tidbits hasn’t updated for almost an hour but the NHC Recon page is still updating the new flight!

Thank you, I wanted to wait a while before posting about it on the forum but my inner thoughts we're already running wild. Where on the NHC page can we find the new flight data?

Under Data & Tools at the upper-left of the NHC page.

Isn't that still the old recon plane coming back (AF304), since the new recon plane if AF307. Or am I looking at the wrong place?

[ClarCari]

Thank you, I wanted to wait a while before posting about it on the forum but my inner thoughts we're already running wild. Where on the NHC page can we find the new flight data?

Under Data & Tools at the upper-left of the NHC page.

Isn't that still the old recon plane coming back (AF304), since the new recon plane if AF307. Or am I looking at the wrong place?

oo maybe. They would both appear there. IDK if the reports are intermingling or not.

Either way, we’ll find out soon enough. Not the first time recon has transmission trouble the first hour of so before they start reporting again.

[Nancy Smar]

They said that the flight hit a bird on takeoff and they had to swap planes.

[kevin]

They said that the flight hit a bird on takeoff and they had to swap planes.

Okay that explains it thanks for letting me know, at least the mission is not cancelled. This season really is cursed.

[ClarCari]

They said that the flight hit a bird on takeoff and they had to swap planes.

Where’d you hear that?

[ClarCari]

Found it! Poor thing.. :/

 https://twitter.com/flynonymouswx/status/1328245521715253248




Not even joking, they should seriously add this to Iota’s death count. I could only hope it’s the last fatality of this storm. I wish the absolute best for CA.

[Cyclenall]

Looks like July 2005 has met its match and my question remains to all, assuming both Eta and Iota are CAT5s, which month is more insane?

We might be seeing some of the fastest intensification documented in the Atlantic basin, feels like that's been the case over and over this fall. Iota is the real deal, this is what perfect ventilation in all quads gets you in that pocket down there. The other powerful and EI hurricane to have hail in the VDM was Felix which was nearby and becoming a CAT5. The chances of Iota becoming one and dropping below 910 mb are hastening. Someone mentioned that Mondays recently have featured explosive deepening rounds; how does a 10 mb/hr drop to start this Monday sound?

[Nancy Smar]

They said that the flight hit a bird on takeoff and they had to swap planes.

Where’d you hear that?

Here.
 https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1328240960472551425

[Ryxn]

Found it! Poor thing.. :/

https://twitter.com/flynonymouswx/status/1328245521715253248?s=21

Not even joking, they should seriously add this to Iota’s death count. I could only hope it’s the last fatality of this storm. I wish the absolute best for CA.

Very much an indirect death though, plane killed it, not so much the hurricane however the plane was flying in there because of the hurricane...

[ClarCari]

Ima take a sweet look at the advisory coming in a bit and them I’ll “nap”.

I’m curious what the NHC will forecast now..

[Iceresistance]

[ClarCari]

:shocked!:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-0531A-IOTA_dropsonde10_20201116-0618.png

You missed it, but that was an error in the dropsonde that never made it to the surface.

Next recon will show more convincing data, and it very well could be closer to that dropsonde later, just not right now.

[Buck]

Looks like July 2005 has met its match and my question remains to all, assuming both Eta and Iota are CAT5s, which month is more insane?

We might be seeing some of the fastest intensification documented in the Atlantic basin, feels like that's been the case over and over this fall. Iota is the real deal, this is what perfect ventilation in all quads gets you in that pocket down there. The other powerful and EI hurricane to have hail in the VDM was Felix which was nearby and becoming a CAT5. The chances of Iota becoming one and dropping below 910 mb are hastening. Someone mentioned that Mondays recently have featured explosive deepening rounds; how does a 10 mb/hr drop to start this Monday sound?

“Assuming Eta” I love how we just ignore that NHC knows what they are doing and just assume all hurricanes are stronger than they say they are so we can update our Wikipedia pages.

[Iceresistance]

:shocked!:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-0531A-IOTA_dropsonde10_20201116-0618.png

You missed it, but that was an error in the dropsonde that never made it to the surface.

Next recon will show more convincing data, and it very well could be closer to that dropsonde later, just not right now.

Oh, I see now, but the Eye Temperture is -5C

[Iceresistance]

Looks like July 2005 has met its match and my question remains to all, assuming both Eta and Iota are CAT5s, which month is more insane?

We might be seeing some of the fastest intensification documented in the Atlantic basin, feels like that's been the case over and over this fall. Iota is the real deal, this is what perfect ventilation in all quads gets you in that pocket down there. The other powerful and EI hurricane to have hail in the VDM was Felix which was nearby and becoming a CAT5. The chances of Iota becoming one and dropping below 910 mb are hastening. Someone mentioned that Mondays recently have featured explosive deepening rounds; how does a 10 mb/hr drop to start this Monday sound?

This is already dropping at 9 MB an hour

[ClarCari]

Looks like July 2005 has met its match and my question remains to all, assuming both Eta and Iota are CAT5s, which month is more insane?

We might be seeing some of the fastest intensification documented in the Atlantic basin, feels like that's been the case over and over this fall. Iota is the real deal, this is what perfect ventilation in all quads gets you in that pocket down there. The other powerful and EI hurricane to have hail in the VDM was Felix which was nearby and becoming a CAT5. The chances of Iota becoming one and dropping below 910 mb are hastening. Someone mentioned that Mondays recently have featured explosive deepening rounds; how does a 10 mb/hr drop to start this Monday sound?

“Assuming Eta” I love how we just ignore that NHC knows what they are doing and just assume all hurricanes are stronger than they say they are so we can update our Wikipedia pages.

NHC’s Operational Advisories are more based on keeping the public safe than exact science to the bone.

That’s why you rarely see Category 5 storms operationally at 160MPH. They are almost all operationally 165MPH or more. It’s also why the NHC doesn’t like to downgrade from a Category 1 to a TS close to land if they are similar intensity.

TCR’s are where the real science is.

[Buck]

Looks like July 2005 has met its match and my question remains to all, assuming both Eta and Iota are CAT5s, which month is more insane?

We might be seeing some of the fastest intensification documented in the Atlantic basin, feels like that's been the case over and over this fall. Iota is the real deal, this is what perfect ventilation in all quads gets you in that pocket down there. The other powerful and EI hurricane to have hail in the VDM was Felix which was nearby and becoming a CAT5. The chances of Iota becoming one and dropping below 910 mb are hastening. Someone mentioned that Mondays recently have featured explosive deepening rounds; how does a 10 mb/hr drop to start this Monday sound?

“Assuming Eta” I love how we just ignore that NHC knows what they are doing and just assume all hurricanes are stronger than they say they are so we can update our Wikipedia pages.

NHC’s Operational Advisories are more based on keeping the public safe than exact science to the bone.

That’s why you rarely see Category 5 storms operationally at 160MPH. They are almost all operationally 165MPH or more. It’s also why the NHC doesn’t like to downgrade from a Category 1 to a TS close to land if they are similar intensity.

TCR’s are where the real science is.

Yes I know. And it’s always assumed that any storm within 10 mph of a threshold will receive an upgrade. This year alone everyone is assuming Laura, Sally, Gamma, Zeta and Eta are all getting upgraded post-season. Maybe some will. But there are way too many sensationalists on here being left unchecked.