ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Wow that is a huge pressure drop from last time! That's like over 3 mb per hour now?!

[ElectricStorm]

We may have a Cat 4 on our hands. Incredible development tonight.

SFMR:

112 knots
(~ 128.9 mph)

Holy crap this is getting closer to Eta's intensity in a hurry...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think they might just issue a new Special Advisory and increase the landfall intensity forecast.

Agreed. NHC was calling for a 35 mph increase between the 10 pm advisory and landfall. Based on what we're seeing with recon, I think a peak of 135 knots seems reasonable.

[bp92]

Providencia Island's ~5000 population is likely to take a direct hit from a full-blown Cat. 4 hurricane at this point.
Feeling really terrified for those that are stuck in there. I hope most people got the hell out of there (though they most likely just moved to nearby San Andrés, which will also take a hit, although it isn't likely to get hurricane-force winds).

[ClarCari]

Zero evidence of any double-wind-maxima that may have been there earlier.
I can say for almost certainty this storm hasn’t at all reached it’s MPI before an EWRC can take effect.

[ElectricStorm]

102kts on the eyewall dropsonde

[Keldeo1997]

CAT 4 winds very close to the surface

[Keldeo1997]

"SW EYEWALL INTENSE LIGHTNING AND HAIL"

[Hypercane_Kyle]

VDM says both lightning and hail (!!) in the eyewall.

Eta didn't even have hail in its eyewall when it was going nuts.

[galaxy401]

That's a comment that you rarely see in the VDM...That must have been a very intense and rough fly-through of the eyewall if they had to add that comment...

[ColdMiser123]

Dropsonde splashing at 945 mb confirms the rapid >3 mb/hr pressure falls have continued.

[USTropics]

Cat 3 winds... and that's not even the right front quad

I though that was the NE quad?

It looks to me they are doing the same NE to SW and maybe SE to NW like the last recon missions.

It's moving west so the NW quad would be right-front, they should get the NW quad on the next pass if they follow the same pattern they have been on previous missions

Just to touch on this, a storm's relative motion determines where the front-right quadrant is. A storm moving directly north will have a front-right quadrant to the NE, whereas a storm moving directly west will have a front-right quadrant typically to the N/NW. This is largely due to propagation of winds (i.e. where the Coriolis effect and angular velocity of the hurricane are greatest). The adjacent quadrant is typically weaker (up to ~20-30 mph in intense hurricanes). Here is a live example of Iota from Earthnull:



https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-79.43,15.98,2274/loc=-80.097,13.412

[TheProfessor]

What a crazy storm. If it avoids any hiccups there's a real chance this gets down to 905-910mb pressure wise assuming landfall doesn't occur earlier than expected.

[bob rulz]

What a thing to get home from work to see. This year has just been relentless.

[ElectricStorm]

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO
A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

[Cunxi Huang]

NHC goes with 110 kt 945 mb.

[Ryxn]

We're officially closer to December than October and we have a storm likely on verge of Category 5 status...

Let that sink in.

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1328215211958886402

[ClarCari]

That’s a rather conservative forecast peak right now. Maybe they will revise later, but I seriously doubt this only strengthens a mere 10kt more...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That’s a rather conservative forecast peak right now. Maybe they will revise later, but I seriously doubt this only strengthens a mere 10kt more...

That's the old intensity forecast. A new one has yet to be issued.