ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Already forgetting about raw T 8.5 Eta?

To be fair if Eta proves anything it would be that the ADT is skewed too favorably toward the Atlantic basin on cloud top temperature. I think a seasonal adjustment to Raw T calculation would be helpful in such case.

It proves that Raw T isn't an intensity estimate, Final T is.

True, however there also have been many cases which Raw Ts were closer to actual measured intensity. Raw # can sometimes be helpful to an extent.

[Kazmit]

Wow, the NE and SW quadrants have the same wind speeds.

[supercane4867]

Wow, the NE and SW quadrants have the same wind speeds.

At this point I’d be surprised if Iota doesn’t become the deepest system of the year(at least in terms of pressure). Unmatched symmetry right there.

[cheezyWXguy]

To be fair if Eta proves anything it would be that the ADT is skewed too favorably toward the Atlantic basin on cloud top temperature. I think a seasonal adjustment to Raw T calculation would be helpful in such case.

It proves that Raw T isn't an intensity estimate, Final T is.

True, however there also have been many cases which Raw Ts were closer to actual measured intensity. Raw # can sometimes be helpful to an extent.

Haha, didn’t say anything about most intense (though Eta did beat out laura at least in pressure), and there’s no question raw Ts drastically overstated intensity. The original question comment was about which storm had the best appearance, and if it does nothing else, ADT quantifies appearance

[Ed_2001]

The expansive amount of spiral bands around Iota reminds me more of a WPAC typhoon than an ATL hurricane. Honestly based on how ATL and WPAC have been behaving this year I'm convinced that the two basins agreed to switch roles for a year.

[skyline385]

Convection in the western bands appears to be weakening slightly?

[NDG]

Dropsonde 964mb

[Iceresistance]

964 MB

[aspen]

Not a crazy pressure drop; 972.2 mbar at 17:54z to 962.8 mbar at 22:51z yields a deepening rate of “only” 1.9 mb/hr. However, that’s fast enough to yield a 940 mbar Category 4 by 6am tomorrow morning.

[Keldeo1997]

Eye a little smaller

[NDG]

Not a crazy pressure drop; 972.2 mbar at 17:54z to 962.8 mbar at 22:51z yields a deepening rate of “only” 1.9 mb/hr. However, that’s fast enough to yield a 940 mbar Category 4 by 6am tomorrow morning.

Comparing actual dropsonde readings is actually an 11 mb drop in just 5 hours, 2.2 mb/hr

542
URNT12 KNHC 151811
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020
A. 15/17:53:40Z
B. 13.16 deg N 078.88 deg W
C. 700 mb 2883 m
D. 975 mb
E. 080 deg 7 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 66 kt
I. 143 deg 15 nm 17:48:30Z
J. 228 deg 67 kt
K. 141 deg 20 nm 17:47:00Z
L. 68 kt
M. 317 deg 12 nm 17:57:00Z
N. 047 deg 74 kt
O. 316 deg 14 nm 17:57:30Z
P. 10 C / 3048 m
Q. 16 C / 3047 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2.75 nm
U. AF307 0331A IOTA OB 20
MAX FL WIND 74 KT 316 / 14 NM 17:57:30Z
;

136
URNT12 KNHC 152315
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020
A. 15/22:51:30Z
B. 13.24 deg N 079.68 deg W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 964 mb
E. 320 deg 1 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C16
H. 80 kt
I. 018 deg 12 nm 22:48:00Z
J. 106 deg 90 kt
K. 021 deg 15 nm 22:47:00Z
L. 82 kt
M. 214 deg 12 nm 22:55:30Z
N. 304 deg 89 kt
O. 216 deg 13 nm 22:56:00Z
P. 11 C / 3049 m
Q. 15 C / 3047 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 0.75 nm
U. AF305 0431A IOTA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 90 KT 021 / 15 NM 22:47:00Z
;

[shiny-pebble]

Why did the mesoscale floater switch?? Same thing happened with Eta...

[Kazmit]

Not a crazy pressure drop; 972.2 mbar at 17:54z to 962.8 mbar at 22:51z yields a deepening rate of “only” 1.9 mb/hr. However, that’s fast enough to yield a 940 mbar Category 4 by 6am tomorrow morning.

Usually RI isn't linear though, so it could be accelerating in deepening rate.

[Sciencerocks]

Think this is the best looking system in the Atlantic this year, especially on IR

Already forgetting about raw T 8.5 Eta?

To be fair if Eta proves anything it would be that the ADT is skewed too favorably toward the Atlantic basin on cloud top temperature. I think a seasonal adjustment to Raw T calculation would be helpful in such case.

Eta was a very powerful cat 4 hurricane and Iota doesn't come within 2 categories of it as of this time. I did just say as of THIS time as I believe Iota could become very powerful within its own but to assume that it is the best looking storm of the season over Eta is pure insanity.






Compared to Iota

[Iceresistance]

What in the world?

[supercane4867]

Rapid intensification clearly underway

[senorpepr]

Why did the mesoscale floater switch?? Same thing happened with Eta...

Space-X launch

[Nimbus]

Not close enough to landfall for this..

[ClarCari]

NHC now has Iota a Cat.2 to 100mph. Quite the jump from current recon data but understandable as this thing isn’t plateauing anytime soon. Forecast peak remains the same..for now.

[Ryxn]

It's mid-November for Pete's sake. If it can reach that crazy Category 5 past midnight tonight, it would mean there would be a Category 5 closer to DECEMBER than October. That would be some next level stuff. Very 2020 tho...