ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

The HWRF doesn’t show this really taking off until tomorrow, and it shows a disorganized system very similar to what we’re seeing now.

Worth noting is that both the HWRF and HMON have been very insistent that an EWRC or an eyewall meld will take place on Monday.

[Shell Mound]

At least we can all agree on one thing: none of us wants one more Iota of this season.

[kevin]

At least we can all agree on one thing: none of us wants one more Iota of this season.

Imagine if we ever reach tropical storm Pi or tropical storm oMega, the pun level would go through the roof.

[underthwx]

At least we can all agree on one thing: none of us wants one more Iota of this season.

Imagine if we ever reach tropical storm Pi or tropical storm oMega, the pun level would go through the roof.

I'm thinkin about joining a fraternity...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track down to 12.9N and being that far south, it will be painfully very difficult for Iota to avoid land and not do what one outlier model does that goes north.

31L IOTA 201114 1200 12.9N 75.8W ATL 35 1006

[kevin]

12z Best Track down to 12.9N and being that far south, it will be painfully very difficult for Iota to avoid land and not do what one outlier model does that goes north.

31L IOTA 201114 1200 12.9N 75.8W ATL 35 1006

Wow I didn't expect it to go this far south. A track like HWRF that misses Honduras sounds unlikely to me right now. This is kind of a lose-lose scenario. Because not only will Honduras/Nicaragua most likely get hit by another strong hurricane, but the fact that it almost stalled last night also gave Iota more time to get organized.

Edit: I thought it said 74.8W at first, that's a full degree west of the previous best track. Shows that Iota is still a very erratic system.

[aspen]

12z Best Track down to 12.9N and being that far south, it will be painfully very difficult for Iota to avoid land and not do what one outlier model does that goes north.

31L IOTA 201114 1200 12.9N 75.8W ATL 35 1006

Wow, that’s a full degree W shift. This thing really does not want to follow the model tracks.

[underthwx]

12z Best Track down to 12.9N and being that far south, it will be painfully very difficult for Iota to avoid land and not do what one outlier model does that goes north.

31L IOTA 201114 1200 12.9N 75.8W ATL 35 1006

https://i.imgur.com/qPaL1Dw.png

CE...just so I understand you...are you saying at some point iota may move north?

[wxman57]

Don't put too much stock in position and movement estimates for a center that cannot be located and tracked easily. Iota has had a poorly-defined and broad LLC since yesterday. Really hard to find. Perhaps the NHC should have waited until today to upgrade, when a center could be more easily discerned once shear relaxes this afternoon. That's when all the models had it developing. I think it's likely that it has lacked a well-defined LLC. What we saw on satellite yesterday was strong rotation in the mid-levels. SW wind shear will relax today, and I think the LLC will be easy to find by this afternoon. Rapid intensification tomorrow afternoon and Monday. Looks like this isn't going to track north of Honduras. More heavy rain (15-25") from northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, and NE Guatemala between Monday evening & Thursday morning.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track down to 12.9N and being that far south, it will be painfully very difficult for Iota to avoid land and not do what one outlier model does that goes north.

31L IOTA 201114 1200 12.9N 75.8W ATL 35 1006

https://i.imgur.com/qPaL1Dw.png

CE...just so I understand you...are you saying at some point iota may move north?

On the contrary,it will move west to Nicaragua.

[underthwx]

12z Best Track down to 12.9N and being that far south, it will be painfully very difficult for Iota to avoid land and not do what one outlier model does that goes north.

31L IOTA 201114 1200 12.9N 75.8W ATL 35 1006

https://i.imgur.com/qPaL1Dw.png

CE...just so I understand you...are you saying at some point iota may move north?

On the contrary,it will move west to Nicaragua.

Ok... thankyou for your reply...and good morning to you....

[kevin]

Don't put too much stock in position and movement estimates for a center that cannot be located and tracked easily. Iota has had a poorly-defined and broad LLC since yesterday. Really hard to find. Perhaps the NHC should have waited until today to upgrade, when a center could be more easily discerned once shear relaxes this afternoon. That's when all the models had it developing. I think it's likely that it has lacked a well-defined LLC. What we saw on satellite yesterday was strong rotation in the mid-levels. SW wind shear will relax today, and I think the LLC will be easy to find by this afternoon. Rapid intensification tomorrow afternoon and Monday. Looks like this isn't going to track north of Honduras. More heavy rain (15-25") from northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, and NE Guatemala between Monday evening & Thursday morning.

This exactly. As much as I like to watch every tiny wobble in the new model runs, I think we just have to wait for a clear center to form before the models will become more accurate. But even with the uncertainty right now, I agree that a track north of Honduras is unlikely. Looks like the exact area hit by Eta might be struck again by a strong storm.

[wxman57]

12Z TVCN (consensus) shifted well south with the track (by about 30 miles). Moves inland into NE Nicaragua Monday afternoon/evening. Doesn't appear as though it can miss Nicaragua or Honduras and head to Belize.

[kevin]

Looks quite healthy on WV, I'm just shocked by how far south it is.

[Do_For_Love]

I also didn't expect Iota to hang out near the Columbian coast, looks pretty weird haha.

I'm seeing strong convection but not a ton of organization for now...I'm sure that will change over the next 24 hours though.

[aspen]

Recon is on its way and should arrive in 3-ish hours...assuming no problems.

[supercane4867]

Looks pretty well organized to me

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1327584817395994624

[wxman57]

Surface center may be a bit west of the heavier convection. Well south of NHC's track now. They'll likely shift the track southward this hour.

[aspen]

The LLC is outside of the convection and already at 76W. What is this thing doing?

[wxman57]

Yep, NHC shifted their track farther south. No big surprise. More heavy rain for CA, but no Gulf threat this time.