ATL: IOTA - Models

[chris_fit]

HMON/HWRF - What are you doing

https://i.imgur.com/e1sFAq4.png

They’re being nice to Nicaragua and Honduras. While Iota would get stronger in that track, it would be a best-case scenario for many of the regions devastated by Eta.

Very True. I was just being selfish.

[Iceresistance]

Another treat for yucatan I hate you 2020

It's no wonder why 2020 is CURSED

Storm after storm NONSTOP!

[kevin]

If this becomes a major then the major hurricane distribution this year becomes:

August: 1
September: 1
October: 2
November: 2

That has to be the weirdest major hurricane distribution I've ever seen. And don't tempt 2020 or it will also make Kappa a major just to rub it in.

[Iceresistance]

Is this becomes a major then the major hurricane distribution this year becomes:

August: 1
September: 1
October: 2
November: 2

That has to be the weirdest major hurricane distribution I've ever seen. And don't tempt 2020 or it will also make Kappa a major just to rub it in.

It's in reverse! Normally, the major months are in Aug. & Sept.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Now watch us get a major hurricane in December..

[kevin]

It's insane how much late season activity this season has. Imagine if after all the record breaking activity the old you from September would talk to your future self from December and your conversation would be = OLD YOU: "What a crazy hurricane season, right?" FUTURE YOU: "Indeed, especially those last few months that's when it really went down, what a backloaded season." OLD YOU: "Wait, hold up...". I'd be straight up terrified about what would be to come in October and afterwards .

[LarryWx]

12z JMA: similar to 12Z UKMET, Euro, Icon, and GFS goes SW well inland into Honduras/Nicaragua:



Then like the Euro it keeps going SW well into the E Pac. I think the JMA has a left bias fwiw:

[Iceresistance]

Now watch us get a major hurricane in December..

There was only CAT 1 hurricanes in December as the strongest, most recent was Epsilon in 2005, & the strongest December hurricane was Olga in 2001 with 90 mph winds.

[Iceresistance]

There is the 6 PM runs for all of the models tonight.

[Frank2]

Pretty much in agreement: https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weath ... Model_3-WX

[underthwx]

Now watch us get a major hurricane in December..

There was only CAT 1 hurricanes in December as the strongest, most recent was Epsilon in 2005, & the strongest December hurricane was Olga in 2001 with 90 mph winds.

True that...

[Iceresistance]

Now watch us get a major hurricane in December..

There was only CAT 1 hurricanes in December as the strongest, most recent was Epsilon in 2005, & the strongest December hurricane was Olga in 2001 with 90 mph winds.

True that...

Only if 2020 could upset this!

[underthwx]

There was only CAT 1 hurricanes in December as the strongest, most recent was Epsilon in 2005, & the strongest December hurricane was Olga in 2001 with 90 mph winds.

True that...

Only if 2020 could upset this!

If only...

[AutoPenalti]

GFS running. Stronger already.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS at 998mb and a lot faster. A strong TS by Saturday mornig.

[AutoPenalti]

983mb at 66 hours. Moving faster.

[Iceresistance]

973 MB at 78 hours

[supercane4867]

With center formation taking place further north than global model initialized including 18z GFS, I would go with a Belize landfall.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS skirts Honduras so far. No tilted ridge to push it southwestward

[aspen]

18z GFS has edged further north, a little closer to the HMON/HWRF tracks from the 00z-12z runs.