ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

Sure seems like the track is gonna take ETA further South down into Ft. Myers instead of Tampa. Thoughts?

[Iceresistance]

Umm, that LLC is still there

you can see it rapidly weakening..

very light winds now. pressure is nearly the same farther east.

And very enlongated right now, it's reforming.

[AutoPenalti]

I wonder if a further east reformation may bring SEFL back in the wind field.

[psyclone]

Sure seems like the track is gonna take ETA further South down into Ft. Myers instead of Tampa. Thoughts?

I think you could be onto something. A system approaching the coast at an oblique angle doesn't need to lose much longitude to have a vastly differing landfall point. The irony here is such a development would likely force TS warnings at the next advisory south of the existing watches issued with the last complete advisory. the 10 pm update should be interesting...

[cjrciadt]

Watchin more closely now, might get some TS sustained winds by thursday here.

[caneman]

Watching the i.r. loop it almost seems like there is an eye. Its also more clearly shows the NNE movement. Maybe Tampa to Sarasota but lopsided so I'm sure all the way down to Ft. Myers would get a good whack too

[emeraldislenc]

I think it is the best it has looked in several days!

[boca]

[quote="AutoPenalti"]I wonder if a further east reformation may bring SEFL back in the wind field.[/quote

I’m thinking the same thing because this is moving ENE.It doesn’t look like Eta wants to deviate from that heading.

[psyclone]

Watching the i.r. loop it almost seems like there is an eye. Its also more clearly shows the NNE movement. Maybe Tampa to Sarasota but lopsided so I'm sure all the way down to Ft. Myers would get a good whack too

Again you're on point. near and right of the center gets the buffet. nothing to the west is the most likely outcome

[Iceresistance]

Recon needs to be very careful, the lightning there is nonstop on radar

[Laser30033003]

It looks to be going a bit more North now.......

[CronkPSU]

Watchin more closely now, might get some TS sustained winds by thursday here.

i teach in a portable between you and lakeland...wondering if we will have school Thursday and Friday

(with us doing half of our students learning via zoom/online, maybe they just convert everyone to virtual for a few days)

[Blown Away]

If Eta doesn’t stop the ENE movement, I see TS warning for the lower Keys coming soon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[GeneratorPower]

Recon needs to be very careful, the lightning there is nonstop on radar

Lightning shouldn’t be much of a risk. But could indicate strong turbulence.

[Spacecoast]

This position comes from the model file in the "aid_public" directory of the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System. CARQ stands for "Combined Automated Response to Query".
CARQ Storm Position
Date: Nov. 11, 2020 0:00 Z (Wednesday)
Coordinates: 23.5N 84.6W
Wind Speed: 55 kts (63.3 mph, 101.9 km/h, 28.3 m/s)
MSLP: 990 mb (29.24 inHg, 990 hPa)
Storm Direction: NNE (25°)
Storm Speed: 8 kts (9.2 mph, 14.8 km/h)
System Depth: Deep
Last closed isobar press.: 1009 mb (29.8 inHg, 1009 hPa)
Last closed isobar radius: 300 nm (345.2 miles, 555.6 km)
Radius of Max Winds: 20 nm (23 miles, 37 km)

[Iceresistance]

Recon needs to be very careful, the lightning there is nonstop on radar

Lightning shouldn’t be much of a risk. But could indicate strong turbulence.

It acutally does, In Sept. 2020, a recon plane had to abort while on the way to TD 22 because it was struck by lightning and it caused the radar system to fail.

[crimi481]

Takes me back to Charley. Forecast to go near Tampa - the sniffed out Charlotte Harbor -and made a right. I am in Englewood
But Charley was 140-145 mph. May be close call here. 2020 - the planet spins in reverse

[lhpfish]

Not sure what to make of this storm.... round two south Florida?

[Iceresistance]

-90C cloud tops has been detected

[Camerooski]

The old LLC is dying and a new one will form under the deep convection, very obvious at this point.