ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

4pm adjusted slightly eastward.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm pretty sure a stronger storm would go more east back towards Fl. If it stays stronger than forecast it won't get to the worst conditions

a 45 MPH storm isn't going to be much different than a 35MPH storm though, and 45 mph is the strongest i see this getting as it weakens before hitting Florida(if it were to go in that direction)...

The HWRF, which has been spot in in terms of structure this year, had a moderate TS last night. It now shows a mid 970s mb hurricane. Although it's not showing a strong landfall, the trends are showing the possibility of a stronger storm. While it's not likely to be a hurricane landfall, I think it's too early to say it's 100 percent not going to happen

Okay, I'll go with 95% then of not being a hurricane at landfall.... But I know, I get it. It's fun to go against the grain and make crazy predictions....... It's not fun if you go with what the NHC is predicting will happen

[CronkPSU]

I would expect they shift it even further east at 10 (it is still weird for all of these times to be 4 and 10 because DST has ended...) but still will not be much of a storm by then

do they expect the rains to expand out again as it moves north towards Florida?

[xironman]

Assuming there aren't changes/issues with recon aircraft, the Plan of the Day did have recon aircraft scheduled for later this evening into early overnight:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ETA
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 11/2330Z,12/0530Z
B. AFXXX 2129A ETA
C. 11/2145Z
D. 26.3N 84.7W
E. 11/2300Z TO 12/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Hope ETA stays weak on offshore, otherwise there is going to be a lot of explaining to do.

[psyclone]

I expect this system to be gutted once it departs its late season loop current cocoon. TS watch from Englewood to Suwannee river. A naked swirl watch might be more fitting

[chaser1]

In actuality, I'm seeing Eta's short-term motion as already being 20-30 degrees (as opposed to due north per 3:00pm discussion). Any eastward motion aids the storm toward further embedding itself deeper within the moist pouch of insulating air. Models are truly trending more eastward and I believe that NHC will adjust further east late this evening. Given the further north position as compared to this a.m.'s Discussion, increasingly colder cloud tops, and a near term motion that I believe is already east of due north....., I'm projecting a landfall between Port Charlotte and Clearwater. I'd guess intensity to range from a strong T.S. to a minimal hurricane. This wacky storm has been tricky though and i'd be watching to see if updating models start trend stronger or not.

[Emmett_Brown]

In actuality, I'm seeing Eta's short-term motion as already being 20-30 degrees (as opposed to due north per 3:00pm discussion). Any eastward motion aids the storm toward further embedding itself deeper within the moist pouch of insulating air. Models are truly trending more eastward and I believe that NHC will adjust further east late this evening. Given the further north position as compared to this a.m.'s Discussion, increasingly colder cloud tops, and a near term motion that I believe is already east of due north....., I'm projecting a landfall between Port Charlotte and Clearwater. I'd guess intensity to range from a strong T.S. to a minimal hurricane. This wacky storm has been tricky though and i'd be watching to see if updating models start trend stronger or not.

I agree. The trends today seem more E, and a bit stronger. W FL should be watching closely, and I'm glad they at least issued a TS watch for the coast.

[psyclone]

You guys are bumping me out of my comfort zone..

[NDG]

From a pass 40 minutes ago.

[chaser1]

I expect this system to be gutted once it departs its late season loop current cocoon. TS watch from Englewood to Suwannee river. A naked swirl watch might be more fitting

You do bring up a good point. SST's drop quick close to the coast especially right at (and immediately north of) the Tampa area. I think the greatest threat might be if a NNE to NE motion continues with a slightly increased forward speed. As I see it, a potential landfall near or south of Tampa could occur around 0Z Thursday. Much after 12Z Thurs. the trough will begin pulling up and high pressure might set up in the West to NW Gulf. That could leave Eta over Florida or close approaching the W. Coast. Something to keep in mind is that a quicker approaching storm is less apt to weaken quite as much as a slow approaching one. In such a case the most damaging conditions would likely be whatever storm surge that could pile up and potentially significant rains in the NE quad that could reach 4"-10".

[crimi481]

Travels with Charlie?

[chaser1]

The window for Florida W. Coast landfall may be limited and have to occur between in a 24-36 hour period as I see it. I think it's entirely reasonable but just as likely that the storm will make a close approach and then stall and weaken. Either way, I'd bet that T.S. Warnings will have to be raised and that could occur as early as later tonight.

[boca]

I would include South Florida in this storm because to me it looks like it’s coming back this way as well.

[ClarCari]

I’d love to stand corrected soon, but part of me thinks they won’t send recon out until the day this thing makes another landfall, which won’t be today.

[HurricaneBelle]

I ordered a hand-held anemometer from Amazon on Sunday thinking we might get something here in the Tampa Bay area, it arrived today and I thought "so much for that" and then I get an alert on my phone we're under a TS watch. So maybe not a waste of $ after all.

[NDG]

I just checked out the buoys offshore of west central FL, good thing SSTs along the coastal waters have cooled down into the mid to upper 70s.
As it approaches the coast shear will not be that big of a problem but proximity to dry air and cooler SSTs it should weaken it considerable, but regardless 18z GFS shows winds gusting to TS force along the west coast of FL in the 40-60 mph range.

[AutoPenalti]

I would include South Florida in this storm because to me it looks like it’s coming back this way as well.

It’s possible but you would need Eta to be strong enough so that steering is influenced by winds aloft.

[underthwx]

a 45 MPH storm isn't going to be much different than a 35MPH storm though, and 45 mph is the strongest i see this getting as it weakens before hitting Florida(if it were to go in that direction)...

The HWRF, which has been spot in in terms of structure this year, had a moderate TS last night. It now shows a mid 970s mb hurricane. Although it's not showing a strong landfall, the trends are showing the possibility of a stronger storm. While it's not likely to be a hurricane landfall, I think it's too early to say it's 100 percent not going to happen

Okay, I'll go with 95% then of not being a hurricane at landfall.... But I know, I get it. It's fun to go against the grain and make crazy predictions....... It's not fun if you go with what the NHC is predicting will happen

I think at this point in ETA's lifespan...that all options are viable...last I checked on ETA, it was stationary...and lo and behold..it's on the move..I was also unaware until now that watches were in effect for part of the Central West coast of Florida!

[xironman]

I’d love to stand corrected soon, but part of me thinks they won’t send recon out until the day this thing makes another landfall, which won’t be today.

Kind of weird to show up as a lone reading, maybe the system burped.

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 22:10Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 29
Storm Name: Eta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 02

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 22Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 26.3N 82.7W
Location: 57 statute miles (92 km) to the WSW (246°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081

Just saw another ob, it is headed south just not communicating.

[Iceresistance]

From a pass 40 minutes ago.


https://i.imgur.com/vUJPYxv.jpg

Center reformation? Or did the CoC slip into the Convection?