ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

So why in hail is recon not out there, nor has it been out there anytime in the last 20+ hours?

Probably funding. It's been a bit busy but I am sure the next mission is getting queued up as we speak.

[Laser30033003]

I think a stronger ETA will move East close to the Tampa Bay Area....but if ETA is weaker then she will move more West and die.....

[ConvergenceZone]

GoM beginning to see the end of the dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/BhE6ew1.png

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

[ElectricStorm]

GoM beginning to see the end of the dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/BhE6ew1.png

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

I think it could become a hurricane again in the next day or so before it finally weakens once and for all. We'll see

[sponger]

GoM beginning to see the end of the dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/BhE6ew1.png

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

The reason for the forecast dissipation is the heat content is quite low to the North. Now, there is a nice finger of warm water it can follow towards Port Charlotte.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod ... 0314go.jpg

[AutoPenalti]

GoM beginning to see the end of the dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/BhE6ew1.png

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

Shear is decreasing. Temps aren't cold enough to weaken this within it's projected path. Mid-November acts much like September.

[boca]

GoM beginning to see the end of the dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/BhE6ew1.png

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

Shear is decreasing. Temps aren't cold enough to weaken this within it's projected path. Mid-November acts much like September.

We also only had one cold front and the weather pattern is not November more like September.

[ConvergenceZone]

GoM beginning to see the end of the dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/BhE6ew1.png

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

I think it could become a hurricane again in the next day or so before it finally weakens once and for all. We'll see

maybe so, but rapid weakening should mean only a depression at landfall....The conditions are horrible as it gets closer to the coast.

[ConvergenceZone]

GoM beginning to see the end of the dry air.

https://i.imgur.com/BhE6ew1.png

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

Shear is decreasing. Temps aren't cold enough to weaken this within it's projected path. Mid-November acts much like September.

I'm speaking more about by the time it gets to the North coast. There's a reason that the NHC is only predicting a depression by the time is gets to the coast.

[ElectricStorm]

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

I think it could become a hurricane again in the next day or so before it finally weakens once and for all. We'll see

maybe so, but rapid weakening should mean only a depression at landfall....The conditions are horrible as it gets closer to the coast.

I'm pretty sure a stronger storm would go more east back towards Fl. If it stays stronger than forecast it won't get to the worst conditions

[Aric Dunn]

SSTS are 80+ from about New Port Richey South. if it heads NNE/NE it will have 80s essentially up to the coast. if it heads North it will have 80s to the same latitude but would have cool water for 100 miles to the coast.

[StPeteMike]

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

Shear is decreasing. Temps aren't cold enough to weaken this within it's projected path. Mid-November acts much like September.

I'm speaking more about by the time it gets to the North coast. There's a reason that the NHC is only predicting a depression by the time is gets to the coast.

The forecasted weakening is due to hostile conditions, not really to do with SST. And those conditions seem to be less of a concern (unfortunately) now than they were 24 hours ago. Anything can change though as this storm has shown us.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it could become a hurricane again in the next day or so before it finally weakens once and for all. We'll see

maybe so, but rapid weakening should mean only a depression at landfall....The conditions are horrible as it gets closer to the coast.

I'm pretty sure a stronger storm would go more east back towards Fl. If it stays stronger than forecast it won't get to the worst conditions

a 45 MPH storm isn't going to be much different than a 35MPH storm though, and 45 mph is the strongest i see this getting as it weakens before hitting Florida(if it were to go in that direction)...

[CrazyC83]

So why in hail is recon not out there, nor has it been out there anytime in the last 20+ hours?

Probably funding. It's been a bit busy but I am sure the next mission is getting queued up as we speak.

The planes have been so heavily used this year that they are likely running into mechanical issues and they will likely need offseason overhauls. They may be saving up also in case Iota (or another storm) becomes a high-end system.

[Do_For_Love]

Eta looks a little bit bigger and stronger since this morning to me. Very interesting track this storm has been taking and it may not be done surprising us yet...

[StPeteMike]

I will say this, NHC needs to figure out fast what this storm
Is going to do. I know it hasn’t been an easy storm to track, but no one in the Tampa Bay Area is prepared for a hurricane... if it gets to that.

[ColdMiser123]

Assuming there aren't changes/issues with recon aircraft, the Plan of the Day did have recon aircraft scheduled for later this evening into early overnight:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ETA
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 11/2330Z,12/0530Z
B. AFXXX 2129A ETA
C. 11/2145Z
D. 26.3N 84.7W
E. 11/2300Z TO 12/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[ElectricStorm]

maybe so, but rapid weakening should mean only a depression at landfall....The conditions are horrible as it gets closer to the coast.

I'm pretty sure a stronger storm would go more east back towards Fl. If it stays stronger than forecast it won't get to the worst conditions

a 45 MPH storm isn't going to be much different than a 35MPH storm though, and 45 mph is the strongest i see this getting as it weakens before hitting Florida(if it were to go in that direction)...

The HWRF, which has been spot in in terms of structure this year, had a moderate TS last night. It now shows a mid 970s mb hurricane. Although it's not showing a strong landfall, the trends are showing the possibility of a stronger storm. While it's not likely to be a hurricane landfall, I think it's too early to say it's 100 percent not going to happen

[chaser1]

It doesn't matter. It's still not going to do much. Cooler temps, increased shear etc.... Mid-November on isn't kind to tropical systems and thank goodness that's the case.

I think it could become a hurricane again in the next day or so before it finally weakens once and for all. We'll see

maybe so, but rapid weakening should mean only a depression at landfall....The conditions are horrible as it gets closer to the coast.

I think your last 3 posts all made clear that you thought Eta would weaken and potentially dissipate prior to any landfall in the Northern Gulf. I couldn't agree more. Fact of the matter is that Eta is fast approaching 24N and this was NHC's projected 11/11 - 12Z position forecast point (from this morning's discussion). I don't know if Eta will make full on landfall near the Tampa area but I do believe that present motion and over-achieving organization in spite of the dry air around it suggests an increased chance of the storm approaching the Florida W. coast. So, just for the record...... SST's and dew points might well suggest that Eta would steadily weaken if it were to continue due north but that is not necessarily true if a track ends up more to the NE.

[aspen]

So why in hail is recon not out there, nor has it been out there anytime in the last 20+ hours?

Probably funding. It's been a bit busy but I am sure the next mission is getting queued up as we speak.

The planes have been so heavily used this year that they are likely running into mechanical issues and they will likely need offseason overhauls. They may be saving up also in case Iota (or another storm) becomes a high-end system.

I hope they’re reserving the planes for another Big One and fixing them all up, after only 2 of 6 scheduled planes even made it to Eta during its ERI pinhole phase due to every mechanical issue possible and missed its true peak intensity. If that’s the case, I can forgive this recon gap today, if it means a chance of having better recon coverage for the next big storm.