Will 2020 bring another major hurricane after Iota?

[Ryxn]

It would go against climatology.....but will go with yes, but just barely. 115 mph in the Caribbean around November 15-22.

If this occurs, it would be the only time there has ever been 2 major hurricanes in November.

Let's discuss the possibility.

[CyclonicFury]

Climatology says very likely not, but this late season has been so crazy I wouldn't rule out the possibility.

[aspen]

It’s probably going to try one last Caribbean major. Models are all in good agreement showing something developing in the Caribbean next week, and it could rapidly intensify if it finds the right spot. Just look at Eta blowing up into a 130-140 kt T#8.5-worthy system in the first week of November. Wrong-Way Lenny also didn’t peak until mid-November.

[CrazyC83]

The first December major hurricane on record maybe?

[FireRat]

The way this season has been, I'd say yes. Got a feeling we could see one more biggie between Nov 15 and Nov 25... could surprise many.

[Ptarmigan]

Anything is possible. Before records were kept and satellites, there were likely major hurricanes in December and even from January to May.

[kevin]

With the development shown in CMC and GFS starting around 120 - 150 hours and considering how genesis heavy the season has been so far, I'd say yes. I know it goes against our climatology and data from older seasons, but if I'm being honest I can't think of a reason why a future system can't bomb out like Eta or Delta did if it develops in the WCar within the next 2 weeks.

[ConvergenceZone]

Maybe an out to sea hurricane, but not a landfalling hurricane. Water temps are cooling, shear is increasing, etc.......

[Laminar]

Maybe an out to sea hurricane, but not a landfalling hurricane. Water temps are cooling, shear is increasing, etc.......

Depends where you live. Lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Climatology says very likely not, but this late season has been so crazy I wouldn't rule out the possibility.

I mean, climatology has already been thrown out of the window with a borderline Cat 4/5 in November.

[CyclonicFury]

Maybe an out to sea hurricane, but not a landfalling hurricane. Water temps are cooling, shear is increasing, etc.......

If anything, the most likely place for a major hurricane is over the Caribbean, where SSTs are still warm enough. Over the open Atlantic SSTs are much cooler.

[NorthieStangl]

We had Otto peaking as a category 3 on November 24... and that was only 4 years ago.

I cannot see a major developing in December. It's indeed possible, but not realistic. The strongest December storm only peaked as a 85 MPH category 1 - and that was Nicole in 1998. We could get our first December category 2, but a major? I don't know about that.

It's 2020 though. Let's wait and see...

[al78]

Anything is possible. Before records were kept and satellites, there were likely major hurricanes in December and even from January to May.

I very much doubt it. There are very limited places a major hurricane can form in November and December, which is the far west of the basin in the Caribbean/Gulf, and I seriously doubt re-analysis would have missed a major hurricane so close to land. As for January to May, conditions, both atmospheric and oceanic, are too hostile for majors. The only reason we had a hurricane in January not so long ago was because of very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere compensating for the normally to low SSTs, and that didn't come close to a major. Unless you go back so far the Earth's climate was very different, in which case anyone can speculate anything without ever being able to be proved wrong.

[CrazyC83]

Anything is possible. Before records were kept and satellites, there were likely major hurricanes in December and even from January to May.

I very much doubt it. There are very limited places a major hurricane can form in November and December, which is the far west of the basin in the Caribbean/Gulf, and I seriously doubt re-analysis would have missed a major hurricane so close to land. As for January to May, conditions, both atmospheric and oceanic, are too hostile for majors. The only reason we had a hurricane in January not so long ago was because of very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere compensating for the normally to low SSTs, and that didn't come close to a major. Unless you go back so far the Earth's climate was very different, in which case anyone can speculate anything without ever being able to be proved wrong.

Only one storm has been found in reanalysis to be stronger than category 1 - that was in March 1908 (cat 2) and that was kept because of lack of certainty, although they knew it was a tropical hurricane.

[Ryxn]

Well, the NHC says yes...

[Ryxn]

Thread title change.

[CyclonicFury]

After Iota, I'd say extremely unlikely...but this season just refuses to stop so I still can't rule it out.

[kevin]

After Iota I'd say it becomes very unlikely, but you never know this year. I do think we'll get another cat 1, perhaps even cat 2 hurricane. But I think/hope that the major hurricane parade of the last few weeks really will end with Iota.

[aspen]

If the GFS is right about the formation of that “Otto 2.0” system (which also appears on the 18z run), then I have to imagine it’ll become a major. November 2020 has had absolutely no care for climatology, and the SWCar currently has the warmest waters in the base — up to 30C in some parts still.

[EquusStorm]

I don't see what would stop a brief May or December major hurricane in the southwest Caribbean under anomalous and PERFFCT upper air conditions considering water temperatures stay warm there, but it would be quite difficult. Alma 1966 on June 8 and Otto 2016 on November 24 just in the satellite era show it wouldn't be a huge stretch, just extraordinarily rare.