Here's what the 06Z showed (and many before that were similar)
ATL: ETA - Models
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Decent shift East/Closer to W FL on the 12z GFS - looks like a different solution than previous runs
Here's what the 06Z showed (and many before that were similar)
Here's what the 06Z showed (and many before that were similar)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
12GFS getting a little stronger then heading up to Tampa, but goes "poof"right before it, similar to 6z HMON
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
12z NAM now joining GFS with stronger system heading NE into the nature coast north of Tampa. 12z CMC again shows a stronger system and closer to FL west coast. Hope this isn't a trend...
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SconnieCane
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
ronjon wrote:12z NAM now joining GFS with stronger system heading NE into the nature coast north of Tampa. 12z CMC again shows a stronger system and closer to FL west coast. Hope this isn't a trend...
I don't even look at the NAM for TCs...but it's not like it's on an island so
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
SconnieCane wrote:ronjon wrote:12z NAM now joining GFS with stronger system heading NE into the nature coast north of Tampa. 12z CMC again shows a stronger system and closer to FL west coast. Hope this isn't a trend...
I don't even look at the NAM for TCs...but it's not like it's on an island so
Obviously its the NAM but it strengthened and moved more NE from its 06z run. Joining the pack so to speak of some of the other globals.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Salute!
Gotta love it.
East then west then back to east.
Breathing easier now, since none of these suckers seem to hit close to the projections.
Latest NHC coords for Sunday morning are within 10 miles of me, so no problem. The thing will scoot off to the east is my guess when looking at the approaching front.
Gums sends...
Gotta love it.
East then west then back to east.
Breathing easier now, since none of these suckers seem to hit close to the projections.
Latest NHC coords for Sunday morning are within 10 miles of me, so no problem. The thing will scoot off to the east is my guess when looking at the approaching front.
Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
12z Euro joining the pack into the Big Bend of NE GOM. I see significant track shifts toward a Florida landfall in the next NHC advisory with possible tropical storm watches going up for portions of the Florida west coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2020111012&fh=144
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2020111012&fh=144
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SconnieCane
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Most of the models/runs that get it stronger/bring it towards FL seem pretty intent on it collapsing/stalling just offshore. You'd think a hurricane on a NE'ward track in November wouldn't just come to a screeching halt. 
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
TVCN which is pretty close to NHC track projections, now takes ETA through north-central Florida with a Crystal River landfall.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
12Z UKMET: into FL Big Bend but fortunately as just a weakening TD:
TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 85.3W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.11.2020 0 22.6N 85.3W 994 35
0000UTC 11.11.2020 12 23.4N 85.1W 993 41
1200UTC 11.11.2020 24 24.7N 85.1W 995 41
0000UTC 12.11.2020 36 26.1N 84.8W 996 43
1200UTC 12.11.2020 48 27.0N 85.3W 1002 31
0000UTC 13.11.2020 60 27.7N 84.6W 1005 27
1200UTC 13.11.2020 72 28.3N 84.2W 1008 26
0000UTC 14.11.2020 84 28.1N 84.2W 1011 27
1200UTC 14.11.2020 96 28.6N 85.0W 1013 19
0000UTC 15.11.2020 108 30.7N 83.9W 1013 20
1200UTC 15.11.2020 120 32.4N 81.8W 1015 20
0000UTC 16.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING
TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 85.3W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.11.2020 0 22.6N 85.3W 994 35
0000UTC 11.11.2020 12 23.4N 85.1W 993 41
1200UTC 11.11.2020 24 24.7N 85.1W 995 41
0000UTC 12.11.2020 36 26.1N 84.8W 996 43
1200UTC 12.11.2020 48 27.0N 85.3W 1002 31
0000UTC 13.11.2020 60 27.7N 84.6W 1005 27
1200UTC 13.11.2020 72 28.3N 84.2W 1008 26
0000UTC 14.11.2020 84 28.1N 84.2W 1011 27
1200UTC 14.11.2020 96 28.6N 85.0W 1013 19
0000UTC 15.11.2020 108 30.7N 83.9W 1013 20
1200UTC 15.11.2020 120 32.4N 81.8W 1015 20
0000UTC 16.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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StPeteMike
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
What’s the intensity models saying? I know it has been mentioned earlier that a stronger storm means more N/NE.
Also, hasn’t UKMET sucked this season?! Haha
Also, hasn’t UKMET sucked this season?! Haha
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
The GFS looks initialized too weak. The risk of a landfalling tropical storm in Florida is going up by the hour.
Edit 993 is spot on without recon.
Edit 993 is spot on without recon.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
chris_fit wrote:HMON and HWRF going with a more E solution as well
HMON brings it into Tampa and hits the Florida North East Coast force field from the wrong side and bounces it back to the gulf. Crazy stuff!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=29L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2020111012&fh=180
Last edited by sponger on Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Latest HWRF model is showing 90 knots near Florida.
HWRF-P is only up to 60 knots before dying away
HWRF-P is only up to 60 knots before dying away
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
sponger wrote:chris_fit wrote:HMON and HWRF going with a more E solution as well
HMON brings it into Tampa and hits the Florida North East Coast force field from the wrong side and bounces it back to the gulf. Crazy stuff!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=29L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2020111012&fh=180
I4 Pinball on that run.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
HMON with Eta hates Florida
(Yes, it makes landfall as a TS over Florida)
(Yes, it makes landfall as a TS over Florida)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models
18Z GFS has landfall around Cedar Key as a weak TS, but keeps moving NE across the state to exit around Jax. This is a continuation of the more easterly trend of the GFS today.
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